ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jabman98]

What is up with all of this thunder? I keep thinking it's a tree falling on my house or debris. But it is actually thunder. I thought tropical systems were warm core?

Every hurricane or tropical storm I've been through has had plenty of lightning and thunder.

[GCANE]

Obviously, pretty far west of the last forecast point

[meriland29]

her eye looks very tightly wound and quite round, less of a oblongish like shape. Kinda odd she is almost stationary, maybe due to the drastic upcoming change in position north? if it stalls or crawls like that for a while, given the fact it is feeding off that hot water, that really is bad news. The longer it is over that little area. There is also some considerable shear near, but not sure how or if it will effect her.

[Steve]

end of the loop sure looks like a wobble northwest... the turn?

Looks kind of stationary to me.

And Northern Cuba is paying the price for that. Hours upon hours of hurricane conditions.

Hey DH, great to see you post. Mojo Jojo making a special guest star appearance. With Cuba being narrow, yeah, they're getting wrecked by a stalled out major. I don't think it's super populated where it is now because that's a bit east of Havana. But I'm sure there is misery and pain. IR shows southern side of the storm overland intensifying.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Hurricane Andrew]

For me, whether or not this goes over/under 145mph depends on the shear.

[Kingarabian]

For me, whether or not this goes over/under 145mph depends on the shear.

Unless the 00z GFS comes in weaker, all the models show enough intensification prior to landfall that this may end up being at least a high end cat.4.

[Aric Dunn]

I take an hour away.. come back and its still just drifting.. well thats disconcerting.

[Nederlander]

I highly recommend the Storm app. Has a good radar and posts watches and warnings in near real time. I think it's a couple of bucks but well worth it imo.

[Raebie]

Core is looking great. Bad news for the Keys.

[Meteorcane]

Really starting to get her act together. Cloud tops cooling off and outer eye wall becoming dominant on on IR.

Agreed, I think she ends up making a serious run at cat 5 now.

Seems like a stretch given the limited window she has with favorable shear.

[FLpanhandle91]

Larger eye clearing out now.

[tolakram]

I take an hour away.. come back and its still just drifting.. well thats disconcerting.

You need to get up with the times, even the radar loops are slower than the GOES16 1 minute jobs.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-10

Moving near due north and IR improving by the minute.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

IMO Irma could make a Hurricane Phoenix scenario based on everything people said (making a run at Cat. 5 due to hot SST's) and the probable track which i can say targeting where Hermine made landfall (but miles east on it) in previous year. Well as i (and tolakram) said don't underestimate Irma clearly. Underestimating Irma is bad, which could result in large loss of lives.

[Patrick99]

What is up with all of this thunder? I keep thinking it's a tree falling on my house or debris. But it is actually thunder. I thought tropical systems were warm core?

Every hurricane or tropical storm I've been through has had plenty of lightning and thunder.

Hurricane thunder always sounds weird to me, more like a quick gunshot than the typical rumbling. The lightning also looks odd, too, kind of a greenish flash.

[Frank P]

still looks like it is moving very slowly wnw ...
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Raebie]

Glad to see Mike Seidel finally wandered out of the water in the street onto the dry sidewalk. Was getting worried about him.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/OqxBnyZ.jpg[img]
Larger eye clearing out now.

Yep, no reason for the next recon mission to not find a stronger system. Especially since pressures were constantly dropping in the most recent pressures.

[Steve]

Core is looking great. Bad news for the Keys.

Bad news for overland areas too. Maybe it's a combination of moving a bit more over the water, land heat and DMAX, but look at Cuba and those 2 Beast feeder bands intensifying over southern Florida on IR. Funktop. Switch is on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[meriland29]

Finally figured out Imgur lol. Anyway, back on point, it is very interesting to see what is going on with her right now, from movement to her cooling cloud tops. She was cooling earlier and warmed backed up it seems..

[GCANE]

Larger eye clearing out now.

6.9um shows a good view of the eye clearing.