ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10381 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:57 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:If Irma moved due north from her current location she would make landfall in Flamingo in mainland Monroe County(after the Florida Keys), that would be a landfall east of the NHC current track...I'm not sure why people keep saying this stall would result in a farther west track. If Irma moved NNW from her current location she would landfall around Everglades City which would still be east of the NHC track. In my opinion this stall may result in a farther east landfall as the ridge continues to erode and the ULL continues to dig south.


That would be good for everybody except those in EC, but for 2 days the models have shown a more W track each time Irma slowed or didn't reach forecast point in time... So this might be some good news this stall and maybe Irma stays a little offshore... JMHO
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10382 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:58 pm

meriland29 wrote:
craptacular wrote:For those looking to follow recon, the next flight is approaching Key West and just dropped down to operational altitude.



Thank you :). I am reading the recon data but literally don't understand a lick of it.

There's a cheat sheet in the recon thread.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10383 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:59 pm

This more than likely will be making later than anticipated landfall now due to the near stalling motion
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10384 Postby UpTheCreek » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:59 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
Frank P wrote:Does not look due north to me watching 3 different radars and IR... my opinion NW


I agree...NW to NNW...I think this current movement would extrapolate towards the Lower Keys west of the 7 Mile Bridge, but east of Key West. Just my opinion.



X3. Plain as day, lower keys: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... -200-1-100
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#10385 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:59 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 100157
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 13 20170910
014730 2524N 08307W 6962 03132 0022 +095 +044 051041 042 037 001 03
014800 2523N 08305W 6971 03121 0023 +093 +051 051045 046 036 000 00
014830 2522N 08304W 6964 03130 0025 +091 +055 049044 046 037 002 00
014900 2520N 08303W 6967 03121 0018 +093 +052 050047 048 038 001 00
014930 2519N 08301W 6968 03118 0014 +094 +054 049049 050 039 001 00
015000 2518N 08300W 6966 03120 0008 +095 +052 048047 049 037 001 00
015030 2517N 08258W 6967 03118 0010 +095 +055 051044 048 038 001 00
015100 2516N 08257W 6966 03118 9996 +105 +049 048039 041 038 002 00
015130 2514N 08256W 6969 03114 9986 +114 +050 040036 038 037 003 00
015200 2513N 08254W 6970 03115 9990 +110 +051 041038 039 039 002 00
015230 2512N 08253W 6966 03119 0004 +100 +056 041042 044 040 004 00
015300 2511N 08252W 6964 03120 0015 +089 +062 042046 046 043 004 00
015330 2509N 08250W 6970 03110 0011 +091 +063 043046 047 042 003 00
015400 2508N 08249W 6967 03114 0002 +097 +061 039046 047 044 002 00
015430 2507N 08247W 6969 03111 9991 +104 +055 038047 048 043 002 00
015500 2506N 08246W 6969 03110 9992 +105 +057 039048 049 043 002 00
015530 2504N 08244W 6967 03110 9989 +104 +056 037050 050 045 002 00
015600 2503N 08243W 6967 03109 9986 +106 +057 036050 051 047 003 00
015630 2502N 08242W 6970 03103 9994 +099 +057 038056 057 048 002 00
015700 2501N 08240W 6968 03105 9998 +092 +066 042056 057 049 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10386 Postby NFLnut » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:59 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Would someone be willing to provide me with a good link to a radar? I'd be appreciative of it.


This is good, but will be more useful once it moves away from Cuba. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USFL0438&animate=true
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10387 Postby Iune » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:59 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
meriland29 wrote:
craptacular wrote:For those looking to follow recon, the next flight is approaching Key West and just dropped down to operational altitude.



Thank you :). I am reading the recon data but literally don't understand a lick of it.

There's a cheat sheet in the recon thread.


Link: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119097&start=40#p2622896
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10388 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:00 pm

The NAM shifted slightly east so maybe this stall we saw earlier might shift 00Z guidance slightly east. I know it is the NAM but thinking if this manages to go east of Naples and Ft Myers even if only a little, maybe it would help somewhat. A track east of Tampa would be better too.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10389 Postby Blinhart » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:01 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:If Irma moved due north from her current location she would make landfall in Flamingo in mainland Monroe County(after the Florida Keys), that would be a landfall east of the NHC current track...I'm not sure why people keep saying this stall would result in a farther west track. If Irma moved NNW from her current location she would landfall around Everglades City which would still be east of the NHC track. In my opinion this stall may result in a farther east landfall as the ridge continues to erode and the ULL continues to dig south.


That would be good for everybody except those in EC, but for 2 days the models have shown a more W track each time Irma slowed or didn't reach forecast point in time... So this might be some good news this stall and maybe Irma stays a little offshore... JMHO


I had to hi-lite the part of your statement I have to comment on, if she stays offshore it will be way worse for everyone, she wouldn't weaken nearly as fast.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10390 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:01 pm

Irma is sure is taking her sweet time making the north turn.

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10391 Postby Craters » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:02 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:What is up with all of this thunder? I keep thinking it's a tree falling on my house or debris. But it is actually thunder. I thought tropical systems were warm core?


Thunder and lightning in the Houston area were the order of the day with Harvey. From what I've read, thunder and lightning are less common in the eyewalls of hurricanes. Can't remember the reason, though, unfortunately.
Last edited by Craters on Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10392 Postby Meteorcane » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:02 pm

Anxiously awaiting Recon, think there may be some slight deepening but not expecting anything ridiculous with the dual-eyewall structure. Some 115-120 kt flight lvl winds likely in the NE portion of the outer eyewall, but have no clue what SFMRs those will result in.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10393 Postby MrJames » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:04 pm

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 81.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10394 Postby stormreader » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:05 pm

Frank P wrote:per NHC wnw at 7

Lots of wobbles. This one N, but it finally is now clear of the Cuban coast.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10395 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:05 pm

Tornado warning again now until 1030 in St Lucie county. Near indrio road.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10396 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:07 pm

Craters wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:What is up with all of this thunder? I keep thinking it's a tree falling on my house or debris. But it is actually thunder. I thought tropical systems were warm core?


Thunder and lightning in the Houston area were the order of the day in the Houston area with Harvey. From what I've read, thunder and lightning are less common in the eyewalls of hurricanes. Can't remember the reason, though, unfortunately.


I don't remember seeing lightning or hearing thunder during Wilma or Jeanne and Frances. I did during Mathew.

Big band about to move into southern Palm Beach county. 60mph winds
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10397 Postby dukeblue219 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:07 pm

MrJames wrote:SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 81.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


Was the 125mph from the 9pm position update just a typo then? Odd. They don't usually mess around with 5mph increments during hourly position updates...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10398 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:08 pm

Position fixes since 5 PM:

5PM - 23.4 N, 80.5 W
6PM - 23.4 N, 80.7 W
7PM - 23.4 N, 80.8 W
8PM - 23.3 N, 80.8 W
9PM - 23.4 N, 80.9 W
10PM - 23.5 N, 81.0 W
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10399 Postby Meteorcane » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:08 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
MrJames wrote:SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 81.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


Was the 125mph from the 9pm position update just a typo then? Odd. They don't usually mess around with 5mph increments during hourly position updates...


Honestly I think it may have been, I saw no reason for them to upgrade to 125 but similarly see no reason to downgrade back to 120 with recon not having made it yet.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10400 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:08 pm

This is one huge storm. :double:
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