ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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MidnightRain
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10401 Postby MidnightRain » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:08 pm

Tropical systems are not fun regardless, but at night these can be very scary situations as in most cases you have no visual outside. Hope y'all down in SFL are hunkered down tonight in a safe place, going to be a long night and especially tomorrow.

She definitely seems to be making northbound progression tonight, average out the step-stairing and it looks like a overall NNW motion to this amateur eye. As some have pointed out, conditions further north of Irma are not nearly as ideal as what she's been dealt her entire lifespan so far. However I think the Keys and extreme SW FL are close enough to probably still get a land-falling (or brush) category 4 before she encounters that wind shear.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10402 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:10 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Position fixes since 5 PM:

5PM - 23.4 N, 80.5 W
6PM - 23.4 N, 80.7 W
7PM - 23.4 N, 80.8 W
8PM - 23.3 N, 80.8 W
9PM - 23.4 N, 80.9 W
10PM - 23.5 N, 81.0 W

We now have a slow nw movement and strengthening is happening pressure wise I would think, not sure about wind wise
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10403 Postby meriland29 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:10 pm

Watching TWC, she is without a doubt, popping some pinks and purples on radar now..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#10404 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:12 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 100207
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 14 20170910
015730 2459N 08239W 6965 03105 9998 +090 +067 044055 056 048 001 00
015800 2458N 08237W 6967 03102 9993 +095 +059 046054 054 048 001 00
015830 2457N 08236W 6969 03099 9989 +096 +057 047056 056 048 001 00
015900 2456N 08235W 6966 03100 9986 +095 +056 046055 056 048 001 00
015930 2455N 08233W 6967 03096 9985 +095 +056 046055 055 049 001 00
020000 2453N 08232W 6967 03094 9985 +095 +056 047055 056 049 000 00
020030 2452N 08231W 6966 03096 9981 +095 +058 049054 055 050 000 00
020100 2451N 08229W 6967 03091 9974 +097 +059 050054 054 050 001 00
020130 2450N 08228W 6967 03088 9973 +099 +060 050055 056 051 000 00
020200 2449N 08227W 6966 03087 9969 +100 +067 050057 057 050 002 00
020230 2448N 08225W 6967 03086 9966 +100 +068 050058 059 051 001 00
020300 2446N 08224W 6967 03082 9962 +100 +068 053059 060 050 001 00
020330 2445N 08223W 6967 03081 9958 +103 +058 051060 061 052 001 00
020400 2444N 08221W 6967 03080 9957 +103 +059 051059 060 052 001 00
020430 2443N 08220W 6967 03076 9954 +104 +059 053060 061 051 000 00
020500 2442N 08219W 6966 03076 9957 +098 +063 056061 062 053 001 00
020530 2441N 08218W 6969 03071 9955 +096 +065 056063 063 051 000 00
020600 2439N 08216W 6968 03070 9950 +101 +060 054063 064 052 000 00
020630 2438N 08215W 6967 03068 9941 +105 +056 054066 066 052 001 00
020700 2437N 08214W 6967 03066 9941 +105 +055 052067 067 052 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10405 Postby Raebie » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:12 pm

My fear is that she's going to track a bit further west up the coast, spend more time over water, gain even more strength and make landfall further north than forecast.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10406 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:12 pm

53 MPH gust at the St. Lucie County Airport in Fort Pierce, from latest tornado warned storm.

Fort Pierce well over 200 miles from the center
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10407 Postby ozonepete » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:13 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I take an hour away.. come back and its still just drifting.. well thats disconcerting.


Haha you know what's happening. It hit the wall. Lost westward steering from the subtropical ridge and after a brief drift or loop will cut north. Minor chance it goes more north but 90% odds it goes NNW. SW coast of FL is likely target. They are hopefully locked down now.


As good as we can be Pete, as good as we can be.


Best to you guy. You were there for us in Sandy, we're here for you in this. Hang tough. :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10408 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:13 pm

Transformers popping in Boynton Beach as this heavy band moves through near hypoluxo and 95.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10409 Postby Nederlander » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:14 pm

Raebie wrote:My fear is that she's going to track a bit further west up the coast, spend more time over water, gain even more strength and make landfall further north than forecast.


Shear heading her way.. if that does happen, she should weaken significantly
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10410 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:15 pm

IMO the only way this storm goes to Alabama is a curve to the northwest after going through Georgia...this storm is just about done on a primarily westward heading. More northerly than westerly from here on out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10411 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:15 pm

AdamFirst wrote:53 MPH gust at the St. Lucie County Airport in Fort Pierce, from latest tornado warned storm.

Fort Pierce well over 200 miles from the center

Gonna be a long night. That was our 4th tornado warning tonight in St Lucie.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10412 Postby Raebie » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:16 pm

Nederlander wrote:
Raebie wrote:My fear is that she's going to track a bit further west up the coast, spend more time over water, gain even more strength and make landfall further north than forecast.


Shear heading her way.. if that does happen, she should weaken significantly


I'm talking Tampa vs Naples. Nothing crazy. Shear won't matter at that point. Surge will.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10413 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:16 pm

Nederlander wrote:
Raebie wrote:My fear is that she's going to track a bit further west up the coast, spend more time over water, gain even more strength and make landfall further north than forecast.


Shear heading her way.. if that does happen, she should weaken significantly


That would be great news for those vulnerable areas in Florida if that were to happen.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10414 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:17 pm

I actually thought she would be strengthing by now. Very happy she's not, and every hour brings her closer to the shear..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10415 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:17 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:53 MPH gust at the St. Lucie County Airport in Fort Pierce, from latest tornado warned storm.

Fort Pierce well over 200 miles from the center

Gonna be a long night. That was our 4th tornado warning tonight in St Lucie.


Weagle on WPTV is picking out the cells with couplets & rotation on radar like fleas on a dog. Long night indeed.

Had our sliding glass door partially uncovered to go out on the patio earlier today, once these warnings started coming in we put them all up.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10416 Postby dukeblue219 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:18 pm

Recon estimating 60mph surface winds near Key West which seems to match surface obs. Here's what that looks and sounds like (live feed Two Friends Rooftop, kind of loud, turn down your speakers): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10417 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:18 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:53 MPH gust at the St. Lucie County Airport in Fort Pierce, from latest tornado warned storm.

Fort Pierce well over 200 miles from the center

Gonna be a long night. That was our 4th tornado warning tonight in St Lucie.


Weagle on WPTV is picking out the cells with couplets & rotation on radar like fleas on a dog. Long night indeed.

Had our sliding glass door partially uncovered to go out on the patio earlier today, once these warnings started coming in we put them all up.


Yup. That's what I'm watching too. Amazing coverage. Weagle is kicking butt tonight.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10418 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:19 pm

It is crazy here in East Boca. Gusts at least 60mph maybe higher. Lightning is green with thunder. These bands are getting energized by the Gulf Stream. Briefly lost power and foot it back. Other side of street has no power.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10419 Postby craptacular » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:20 pm

Iune wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
meriland29 wrote:

Thank you :). I am reading the recon data but literally don't understand a lick of it.

There's a cheat sheet in the recon thread.


Link: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119097&start=40#p2622896


One of the sites linked in that thread has a few nice features for this. Go to the following:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Look under the map where it says " Atlantic recon in the last thirty minutes...". Current flight to watch for Irma is AF302 (Mission #29). Reload the page every so often and look right under where it says Irma (11L) - AF 302. You'll see varying links to things like "High Density" and "Vortex". The number in parentheses after any of those terms is how many minutes ago that data was posted. Click on the term and it will take you to a page with the raw data decoded into something you can more easily understand. The "High Density" data is the 20 rows of 30-second observations that you see the most in the recon thread. This gives data such as the coordinates and altitude of the plane, the peak flight-level winds during those 30 seconds, extrapolated surface pressure, and estimated surface winds (under "SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind"), and are issued in 10-minute intervals. When the plane flies through the eye, you'll see a sudden shift in wind direction (usually close to 180 degrees) and the lowest pressures. After they fly through the eye (usually 15-30 minutes later), they'll release a "Vortex" message (people will refer to it as a VDM), which will provide things like the coordinates of the center of eye, the size and shape of the eye, the minimum surface pressure, and the maximum surface winds found on that approach to the eye. This is usually the key message that we wait for. Most of these flights will go through the eye three or four times before heading back to base.
Last edited by craptacular on Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10420 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:20 pm

and there is the west then south motion from the inner eye rotating around.. radar still shoing very little motion...but drfiting north maybe
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