ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone know why my cell phones aren't signaling the tornado warnings? I'm afraid to go to sleep without knowing I'll have some alarm to grab the kids if another tornado is inbound.

If you have an iPhone: "Settings -> Notifications -> Scroll all the way down to Emergency Alerts. Make sure it's on (Green)

I have Android but I'll check the settings. I got the hurricane warning alert last night.

[got ants?]

It is crazy here in East Boca. Gusts at least 60mph maybe higher. Lightning is green with thunder. These bands are getting energized by the Gulf Stream. Briefly lost power and foot it back. Other side of street has no power.

I wish lightning would cooperate so you could get a picture of it. I'd love to see that.

That's not lightning. Its transformers popping. See it every storm.

[Falling Soil]

URNT12 KNHC 100249
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 10/02:36:00Z
B. 23 deg 26 min N
081 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2506 m
D. 96 kt
E. 313 deg 10 nm
F. 043 deg 106 kt
G. 316 deg 14 nm
H. 932 mb
I. 10 C / 3047 m
J. 17 C / 3045 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. CO16-24
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 2911A IRMA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 106 KT 316 / 14 NM 02:32:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 250 / 6 KT

[dukeblue219]

Likely a cat 4 and with room to grow

I'm going to be surprised if they change it at all in the 11pm advisory. The new recon data still doesn't show any wind increases at the surface, but obviously there's still more of the storm to be sampled.

[Nederlander]

What wind shear are you guys talking about, I haven't heard one of the pros on TV mention Wind Shear, all they are talking about how the cool front north is just venting this storm and making her very large.

The low that's centered over the northern gulf and pushing se.. it's what is eroding the ridge and allowing Irma to turn north.. might help ventilation in the short term, but will eventually wreak havoc on Irma..

[AdamFirst]

Anyone know why my cell phones aren't signaling the tornado warnings? I'm afraid to go to sleep without knowing I'll have some alarm to grab the kids if another tornado is inbound.

If you have an iPhone: "Settings -> Notifications -> Scroll all the way down to Emergency Alerts. Make sure it's on (Green)

I have Android but I'll check the settings. I got the hurricane warning alert last night.

I believe it's detected by your current GPS location. I got the hurricane warning alert too, but I didn't get any of the tornado warning alerts since they were in Fort Pierce and the warning box wasn't designated in my location.

On Android it's under Settings -> Sounds -> Emergency Broadcasts

[galaxy401]

I think this is the first time today I seen SMFR above 100 knots to be fair.

[GeneratorPower]

This week I've downplayed the threat to the Herbert Hoover Dike around Lake Okeechobee. Now the NOAA weather radio is saying the Army Corps of Engineers is expecting overtopping or "over washing" of the dike. They've evacuated Moore Haven and others towns around the dike. I know one thing overflowing a dike is bad news. It quickly erodes the soil and can cause a breach fast. Now I'm worried.

[SouthDadeFish]

Air Force plane found same intensity as earlier NOAA flight, but wind profile is starting to become more organized in the inner core.

[craptacular]

I would really like to see some dropsonde data from the eyewall to check out the winds aloft. The last mission only had a couple drops, perhaps due to land proximity?

Just dropped one in NW eyewall on first pass.

Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
953mb (Surface) 360° (from the N) 76 knots (87 mph)
950mb 10° (from the N) 95 knots (109 mph)
949mb 10° (from the N) 95 knots (109 mph)
945mb 15° (from the NNE) 104 knots (120 mph)
937mb 20° (from the NNE) 109 knots (125 mph)
931mb 20° (from the NNE) 106 knots (122 mph)
924mb 20° (from the NNE) 113 knots (130 mph)
910mb 20° (from the NNE) 105 knots (121 mph)
897mb 25° (from the NNE) 104 knots (120 mph)
889mb 30° (from the NNE) 108 knots (124 mph)
872mb 30° (from the NNE) 104 knots (120 mph)
857mb 30° (from the NNE) 113 knots (130 mph)
850mb 35° (from the NE) 110 knots (127 mph)
693mb 45° (from the NE) 96 knots (110 mph)

[eastcoastFL]

What wind shear are you guys talking about, I haven't heard one of the pros on TV mention Wind Shear, all they are talking about how the cool front north is just venting this storm and making her very large.

The low that's centered over the northern gulf and pushing se.. it's what is eroding the ridge and allowing Irma to turn north.. might help ventilation in the short term, but will eventually wreak havoc on Irma..

40kt of shear over the peninsula could save some lives.

[FLpanhandle91]

Air Force plane found same intensity as earlier NOAA flight, but wind profile is starting to become more organized in the inner core.

As to be expected with an EWRC. Core will organize then winds will pick up.

[bjackrian]

99 kt unflagged and 101 kt flagged in the SE eyewall by SMFR, NW eyewall drop with surface wind of 76 kt, but lowest 150 m of 101 kt. I think 105-110 kt is probably about right as they haven't made it to the NE portion of the storm yet.

023830 2323N 08053W 6965 02649 9455 +120 //// 208087 088 099 004 01
023900 2323N 08051W 6967 02676 9471 +124 //// 206093 097 101 020 05

[eastcoastFL]

This week I've downplayed the threat to the Herbert Hoover Dike around Lake Okeechobee. Now the NOAA weather radio is saying the Army Corps of Engineers is expecting overtopping or "over washing" of the dike. They've evacuated Moore Haven and others towns around the dike. I know one thing overflowing a dike is bad news. It quickly erodes the soil and can cause a breach fast. Now I'm worried.

They've been draining the lake all week so I'm surprised to hear that. Any breach of the dike would be very bad news. And we're just getting started with Irma.

[1900hurricane]

The flight level and SFMR wind max in the bands is interesting. I'm curious to see if recon finds it on the other side. I'm not sure it's very likely, but it's not an impossibility that some of those bands well away from the center could try to congeal into a giant outer eywall. It's rare, but I've seen it happen in the WPac on a few occasions. At the very least, it's impacting the pressure gradient over the entire system right now.

[Hurricaneman]

What wind shear are you guys talking about, I haven't heard one of the pros on TV mention Wind Shear, all they are talking about how the cool front north is just venting this storm and making her very large.

The low that's centered over the northern gulf and pushing se.. it's what is eroding the ridge and allowing Irma to turn north.. might help ventilation in the short term, but will eventually wreak havoc on Irma..

40kt of shear over the peninsula could save some lives.

The shear also that you see in the map might be the outflow but could that be a savior wind wise for the area or is it just going to ventilate all the way to landfall

[Bocadude85]

It is crazy here in East Boca. Gusts at least 60mph maybe higher. Lightning is green with thunder. These bands are getting energized by the Gulf Stream. Briefly lost power and foot it back. Other side of street has no power.

I wish lightning would cooperate so you could get a picture of it. I'd love to see that.

That's not lightning. Its transformers popping. See it every storm.

It's lightning...thunder follows

[meriland29]

Went to pick someone up, Someone fill me in? Still 120mph on nhc at 11pm and recon still finding low winds?

[Sciencerocks]

Went to pick someone up, Someone fill me in? Still 120mph on nhc at 11pm and recon still finding low winds?

Same wind at 11pm and recon supports the same winds.

[ava_ati]

11pm advisory only saying a cat 3 at landfall? I hope that verifies.