ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

Pressure at 931 extrap, but recon pass appears to support 110 kt surface winds in NE quad.

040730 2343N 08055W 6965 02724 //// +100 //// 153099 110 106 029 01
040800 2342N 08057W 6970 02685 //// +113 //// 152091 094 108 024 01
040830 2341N 08058W 6963 02673 //// +129 //// 151092 093 113 012 05
040900 2340N 08059W 6973 02632 9448 +121 //// 153087 090 109 012 01
040930 2340N 08101W 6963 02614 9409 +128 //// 157081 084 089 013 05
041000 2339N 08102W 6963 02588 9359 +150 //// 154066 079 071 005 01
041030 2338N 08104W 6970 02558 9322 +167 +158 151044 060 063 003 00
041100 2337N 08105W 6967 02555 9311 +170 +155 151030 038 039 001 00
041130 2336N 08107W 6968 02547 9311 +162 +159 143015 025 019 002 00
041200 2335N 08108W 6966 02545 9313 +156 //// 078002 011 017 000 05
041230 2334N 08110W 6965 02550 9317 +155 //// 331012 016 017 000 01
041300 2332N 08111W 6970 02550 9327 +153 //// 325025 031 016 001 05

unflagged? What was the max wind last pass in the NE quad?

[ronyan]

What is 01 flag?

[ALhurricane]

I'll be shocked if NHC goes 110 kts, since they didn't really believe the 105 kts last time (they threw out the 101 kt sfmr). The data was flagged, so it may not be given as much value

A few unflagging at 108-109kt would still support 110kt despite the 113kt being flagged. Winds are definitely responding.

[jasons2k]

Finally seeing close to due N tug..

Another wobble.

[romeoblade]

What is 01 flag?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

Quality control flags.
First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable

[FLpanhandle91]

Pressure at 931 extrap, but recon pass appears to support 110 kt surface winds in NE quad.

040730 2343N 08055W 6965 02724 //// +100 //// 153099 110 106 029 01
040800 2342N 08057W 6970 02685 //// +113 //// 152091 094 108 024 01
040830 2341N 08058W 6963 02673 //// +129 //// 151092 093 113 012 05
040900 2340N 08059W 6973 02632 9448 +121 //// 153087 090 109 012 01
040930 2340N 08101W 6963 02614 9409 +128 //// 157081 084 089 013 05
041000 2339N 08102W 6963 02588 9359 +150 //// 154066 079 071 005 01
041030 2338N 08104W 6970 02558 9322 +167 +158 151044 060 063 003 00
041100 2337N 08105W 6967 02555 9311 +170 +155 151030 038 039 001 00
041130 2336N 08107W 6968 02547 9311 +162 +159 143015 025 019 002 00
041200 2335N 08108W 6966 02545 9313 +156 //// 078002 011 017 000 05
041230 2334N 08110W 6965 02550 9317 +155 //// 331012 016 017 000 01
041300 2332N 08111W 6970 02550 9327 +153 //// 325025 031 016 001 05

unflagged? What was the max wind last pass in the NE quad?

Unflagged. Highest unflagged I saw last recon was 93 knots. Not sure which quad since I just went back to previous raw data file.

[bjackrian]

I'll be shocked if NHC goes 110 kts, since they didn't really believe the 105 kts last time (they threw out the 101 kt sfmr). The data was flagged, so it may not be given as much value

I thought the 01 QC column code meant that only T and Td were suspect, but winds were real?

[Bocadude85]

Finally seeing close to due N tug..

Yup moving north right along 81W...will have to see if this continues

[meriland29]

So, it is official that the winds are responding to the convection now?

[Blinhart]

We will see in about 15 minutes what they will decide to go with. I say they will go with 125 MPH with 931 mb.

[CrazyC83]

I'll be shocked if NHC goes 110 kts, since they didn't really believe the 105 kts last time (they threw out the 101 kt sfmr). The data was flagged, so it may not be given as much value

A few unflagging at 108-109kt would still support 110kt despite the 113kt being flagged. Winds are definitely responding.

Agreed, I would raise it to 110 kt there based on the accepted 108-109. Radar suggests higher but they may not be pushing to the surface.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100427
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 28 20170910
041730 2340N 08120W 6969 02663 9459 +139 +134 020091 093 099 007 00
041800 2341N 08121W 6969 02680 //// +111 //// 020093 096 101 015 01
041830 2342N 08122W 6967 02712 //// +099 //// 029098 103 089 053 05
041900 2343N 08123W 6967 02741 //// +092 //// 031104 107 084 046 05
041930 2344N 08124W 6966 02768 9607 +102 //// 032103 106 079 023 01
042000 2345N 08125W 6967 02786 9625 +107 //// 034097 101 076 010 01
042030 2346N 08127W 6967 02808 9647 +108 +103 036092 095 071 008 00
042100 2347N 08128W 6967 02825 9666 +107 //// 036086 090 069 007 01
042130 2348N 08129W 6967 02837 9684 +105 //// 038081 084 065 010 01
042200 2350N 08130W 6967 02853 //// +096 //// 039078 081 066 010 01
042230 2351N 08131W 6967 02864 //// +098 //// 041077 078 064 011 01
042300 2352N 08132W 6971 02871 //// +093 //// 043077 077 059 014 05
042330 2353N 08134W 6960 02898 //// +091 //// 039071 075 057 011 05
042400 2354N 08135W 6967 02898 9735 +113 //// 038070 071 058 008 01
042430 2356N 08136W 6967 02906 9732 +127 +110 038070 070 057 004 00
042500 2357N 08137W 6965 02920 9748 +122 +111 038067 069 058 002 00
042530 2358N 08139W 6969 02923 9758 +122 +096 041066 066 055 002 00
042600 2359N 08140W 6967 02931 9772 +118 +095 042065 066 056 002 00
042630 2400N 08141W 6967 02936 9792 +105 //// 044063 064 055 003 01
042700 2402N 08142W 6967 02945 9792 +110 +107 044065 065 055 004 00
$$

[Alyono]

I'll be shocked if NHC goes 110 kts, since they didn't really believe the 105 kts last time (they threw out the 101 kt sfmr). The data was flagged, so it may not be given as much value

A few unflagging at 108-109kt would still support 110kt despite the 113kt being flagged. Winds are definitely responding.

Agreed, I would raise it to 110 kt there. If the 113 is accepted, then 115 kt is reasonable and supported by radar.

it IS 110 kts now based upon the data. I am not sure what NHC will do, however. I now what I am doing with the winds though

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100437
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 29 20170910
042730 2403N 08144W 6967 02951 9798 +110 //// 044064 065 053 003 01
042800 2404N 08145W 6966 02957 9802 +111 +106 045065 065 054 003 00
042830 2405N 08146W 6970 02955 9806 +112 +106 046063 065 055 002 00
042900 2407N 08147W 6966 02968 9814 +110 +109 046060 062 057 004 00
042930 2408N 08149W 6969 02965 9815 +110 //// 048059 061 058 005 01
043000 2409N 08150W 6963 02976 9824 +108 //// 056058 061 061 010 01
043030 2410N 08151W 6963 02980 9836 +100 //// 060060 062 062 011 05
043100 2412N 08153W 6965 02979 //// +101 //// 065060 062 061 012 05
043130 2413N 08154W 6969 02982 //// +093 //// 068064 065 052 016 05
043200 2415N 08156W 6962 02993 //// +089 //// 070069 073 055 023 05
043230 2416N 08157W 6986 02977 //// +085 //// 065071 074 055 022 01
043300 2417N 08159W 6954 03022 //// +087 //// 060067 069 055 019 05
043330 2419N 08200W 6968 03007 //// +085 //// 056064 067 054 012 01
043400 2420N 08201W 6966 03013 //// +090 //// 053067 069 056 007 05
043430 2421N 08203W 6970 03015 9899 +090 //// 051067 068 055 007 05
043500 2423N 08204W 6964 03024 9897 +093 //// 053067 067 055 008 01
043530 2424N 08205W 6963 03025 //// +083 //// 058066 067 052 009 05
043600 2425N 08207W 6972 03019 9903 +085 //// 055068 069 055 009 01
043630 2426N 08208W 6967 03030 9894 +104 +097 055066 068 055 005 00
043700 2428N 08209W 6969 03029 9897 +104 +097 057065 066 053 004 00
$$
;

[toto]

Irma's MB is decreasing yet wind speed remains at 120 mph ??

12:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10
Location: 23.6°N 81.1°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
.

[J_J99]

113 kts was mentioned in Vortex.... not appearing to be flagged.....

[Zarniwoop]

A few unflagging at 108-109kt would still support 110kt despite the 113kt being flagged. Winds are definitely responding.

Agreed, I would raise it to 110 kt there. If the 113 is accepted, then 115 kt is reasonable and supported by radar.

it IS 110 kts now based upon the data. I am not sure what NHC will do, however. I now what I am doing with the winds though

Alyono, I've been following you a long time on here. Do you still believe this storm will explode?

If so, that's good enough for me.

[CronkPSU]

Irma's MB is decreasing yet wind speed remains at 120 mph ??

12:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10
Location: 23.6°N 81.1°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
.

Let's see what they do on the 1AM update...

[meriland29]

i will be flabbergasted if the NHC still deems this the same as the 11pm/12am update

[meriland29]

Has that recon flight given their official values yet for the flight?