ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

128 kt at flight level

[AubreyStorm]

Levi Cowan

Latest recon data suggests that #Irma may be seeing pressure falls & increasing winds at a faster rate than prior hours. Single eyewall now.

[shawn67]

How many are staying up?

Well considering it is 11pm here. in Phoenix, probably through landfall at Key West/Sugarloaf Key...

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like we have a cat4! 128knt flight level and 111knt smrf...Ontop of the 113 knt earlier.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

This is not directly related so feel free boot me off this thread if it is too off topic, but how has Irma at her peak compared with Hurricane Carla at her peak? I recall seeing a discussion on this site about Carla having been as large as Texas and big enough to fill up the Gulf of Mexico. I know Irma's peak intensity has been higher, but has she been as large? I guess it's because everyone is saying Irma's way bigger than Andrew, but literally almost every storm is bigger than Andrew. Well except maybe that tiny Labor Day guy but...

[meriland29]

128 kt at flight level

wait, what? unflagged? That would be a significant jump, not sure that would be considered by nhc

[meriland29]

Looks like we have a cat4! 128knt flight level and 111knt smrf...Ontop of the 113 knt earlier.

It is not a Cat 4 till the NHC says it is a Cat 4.

[Snowman67]

What time is the eye wall supposed to hit the Keys? Trying to decide if I want to get a few hours of sleep or not.

[Sciencerocks]

URNT15 KNHC 100557
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 37 20170910
054730 2355N 08102W 6982 02710 //// +106 //// 142116 117 101 039 01
054800 2356N 08101W 6966 02758 //// +105 //// 141111 116 092 033 01
054830 2357N 08059W 6964 02785 //// +107 //// 143106 110 089 022 01
054900 2359N 08058W 6974 02796 //// +106 //// 142103 107 084 018 01
054930 2400N 08057W 6973 02812 //// +105 //// 141098 101 079 021 01
055000 2401N 08056W 6976 02824 9691 +094 //// 137098 100 076 016 01
055030 2402N 08054W 6967 02847 9702 +095 //// 136095 097 074 015 05
055100 2403N 08053W 6965 02859 9708 +100 //// 137092 094 074 013 01
055130 2404N 08052W 6967 02868 9718 +103 //// 142091 094 073 009 01
055200 2406N 08051W 6970 02873 9726 +104 //// 142088 090 073 008 01
055230 2407N 08049W 6961 02891 9731 +105 //// 145088 089 072 013 01
055300 2408N 08048W 6978 02876 9741 +104 //// 147085 088 075 011 01
055330 2409N 08046W 6962 02904 9743 +109 //// 148083 085 073 009 01
055400 2411N 08045W 6975 02896 9754 +108 //// 147083 085 074 007 01
055430 2412N 08044W 6971 02909 9765 +105 //// 146082 085 071 006 01
055500 2413N 08042W 6969 02918 9767 +108 //// 147080 081 071 007 01
055530 2415N 08041W 6967 02923 9772 +108 //// 149078 079 071 007 01
055600 2416N 08040W 6969 02925 9775 +108 //// 150082 086 072 011 01
055630 2417N 08038W 6972 02929 9790 +101 //// 150084 091 072 011 05
055700 2418N 08037W 6962 02942 //// +098 //// 150082 091 070 018 05
$$

[SouthDadeFish]

Yup, the deepening has resumed. Now the inner core is displaying winds much greater than the surrounding regions. Irma has the potential to be one of the top 5 lowest pressures for a US landfall when it hits the Keys at this rate. Ugh.

[Airboy]

With a trend with lower pressure and stronger winds NHC will probably make it a Cat4, or they want to wait one more pass to comfirm.

[CrazyC83]

I would probably go with 115 kt and a pressure of 928 with that data. We'll see what the NHC says.

[galaxy401]

Well the next 24 hours are going to be long...Getting really scary now that it's strengthening again! Stay safe all!

I am watching TWC and the latest advisory indicates Irma is a cat 4 again!

[meriland29]

wow....NHC has her at 130 now..

[Audrey2Katrina]

Trochoidal oscillation going on? Averaged motion seems a definite NW if not NNW but the eye seems to be looping around similarly to Wilma.

Always trochoidal in powerful tropical cyclones. Clearly we are learning more about why this occurs because we can see inner and outer eyewalls interacting, but if you try to gauge it by watching short term loops you'll go crazy, blind, or both. I never visually assume what the forward direction of motion is unless the loop is at least 6 hours.

Amen to that! I used to watch those 90 minute loops on these things and think it gave me dyslexia

[1900hurricane]

128 kt at 700 mb would support a 115 kt intensity estimate using the standard 0.9 reduction factor. Coupled with the 113 kt SFMR from the previous pass, looks like we're likely back with a 115 kt category 4 for the 06Z best track update.

[CFLHurricane]

Looks like we have a cat4! 128knt flight level and 111knt smrf...Ontop of the 113 knt earlier.

It is not a Cat 4 till the NHC says it is a Cat 4.

So it shall be said, so shall it be done. 2AM update- Cat4

[meriland29]

She is officially a cat 4. I was thinking they would maybe bump her to 125, but not a 10mph jump well wow..

[tarheelprogrammer]

Cat 5 is not out of the question, and being honest at this rate it is better than a 50/50. Just my opinion though.

[cheezyWXguy]

eye is beginning to clear out on IR as well.

IR Slider:
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=424&y=480.29166412353516&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider