ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
What are we supposed to do with that Euro pressure? It starts at 960 when in reality it is already 930 but it drops like 25mbs...do we go with that kind of deepening and forecast 910ish?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
UKMet crosses the Keys 10 miles west of Marathon. At this point Irma would have to travel NNE make that.
Last edited by MrJames on Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AtlanticWind wrote:Ukmet shifted east
GFS a smidgen east
HWRF same
Euro a little west
Actually HWRF also moved a smudge east, now showing landfall before 82W.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Steve wrote:ViPIR model from WPTV shows a coast eyewall runner from Ft. Meyers to maybe Pasco Co.
not good for storm surge values
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
caneman wrote:Steve wrote:ViPIR model from WPTV shows a coast eyewall runner from Ft. Meyers to maybe Pasco Co.
not good for storm surge values
The model or the track? Model is alright for local afternoon tstorm radar products but has generally sucked for tropical systems up this way with only a couple of exceptions.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Steve wrote:caneman wrote:Steve wrote:ViPIR model from WPTV shows a coast eyewall runner from Ft. Meyers to maybe Pasco Co.
not good for storm surge values
The model or the track? Model is alright for local afternoon tstorm radar products but has generally sucked for tropical systems up this way with only a couple of exceptions.
Sorry, meant the track. Just woke up. On and off sleep here and there 2 or 3 hours at a time. Reckon in the next several hours it's only going to go downhill
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Yeah I hope it weakens some by the time it gets up your way. Stay safe man and hopefully you'll come out of it with just some stories to tell.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Can see the clouds now in Georgia...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
0z Euro would be very bad for the west coast of FL if it verifies, for wind and surge damage.
Euro loop below, keep in mind timeline is at US central time.
Euro loop below, keep in mind timeline is at US central time.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Anyone got the newest GFS?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I gotta jump on the GFS train right now.. looking at 2 hours of radar... Without a wobble NW its coming in at Summerland Key/7mile bridge going N/NNW extrapolate that motion into Everglades city... maybe Naples. I may be wrong, but Im going solely off radar
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Jevo wrote:I gotta jump on the GFS train right now.. looking at 2 hours of radar... Without a wobble NW its coming in at Summerland Key/7mile bridge going N/NNW extrapolate that motion into Everglades city... maybe Naples. I may be wrong, but Im going solely off radar
im with you, maybe even east of naples, its an intensifying system and its approaching a landmass after the keys(i dont count the keys or bahamas as landmass) so this could affect the track a little but a little makes a big difference
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:CronkPSU wrote:Anyone got the newest GFS?
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tbu ... ve=0&run=0
oof, that path would be terrible for the entire state
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
jlauderdal wrote:Jevo wrote:I gotta jump on the GFS train right now.. looking at 2 hours of radar... Without a wobble NW its coming in at Summerland Key/7mile bridge going N/NNW extrapolate that motion into Everglades city... maybe Naples. I may be wrong, but Im going solely off radar
im with you, maybe even east of naples, its an intensifying system and its approaching a landmass after the keys(i dont count the keys or bahamas as landmass) so this could affect the track a little but a little makes a big difference
Once its over land it at least won't continue to intensify.
The trough is beginning to shear the northwestern side of the circulation.
Maybe later computer model runs will cave to the radar if the current northerly trend continues?
06z GFS looked more reasonable than the 00z Euro this morning.
With half the circulation over the western coast line the winds are coming initially off the coast which reduces storm surge in front of the system.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Euro ... this would not be good at all, staying offshore and pushing water into Tampa?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
6z GFS
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
6Z GFS. That is a shift eastward, as compared to the 0Z EURO.
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