ATL: IRMA - Models

[NDG]

Hopefully the latest 06z GFS is still being right biased (though it did great with the track of Irma close to Cuba within 24 hrs), because it tracks it over Plant City instead of Clearwater it shows wind gusts over 100 mph over the Orlando area.

https://i.imgur.com/ghDLYUB.png

Yep that wouldn't be good for us it that verified but I think the GFS is overdoing the intensity. This would be a far better scenario for Tampa but the NHC gives this no credence apparently. The Euro is dictating their forecast.

I would not doubt those wind gusts by no means if the GFS verifies, even the Euro shows 80-90 mph wind gusts for this area with its track further west. Irma will be expanding when it starts reaching our area so those winds will expand. IMO.

[otowntiger]

Hopefully the latest 06z GFS is still being right biased (though it did great with the track of Irma close to Cuba within 24 hrs), because it tracks it over Plant City instead of Clearwater it shows wind gusts over 100 mph over the Orlando area.

https://i.imgur.com/ghDLYUB.png

Yep that wouldn't be good for us it that verified but I think the GFS is overdoing the intensity. This would be a far better scenario for Tampa but the NHC gives this no credence apparently. The Euro is dictating their forecast.

I would not doubt those wind gusts by no means if the GFS verifies, even the Euro shows 80-90 mph wind gusts for this area with its track further west. Irma will be expanding when it starts reaching our area so those winds will expand. IMO.

Could be- the local mets agree with you. I guess we'll see, but we are battened down and ready for whatever comes.

[TheBigO]

...
Could be- the local mets agree with you. I guess we'll see, but we are battened down and ready for whatever comes.

As a fellow Orlando resident, which local mets are you referring to?

[Nimbus]

Hopefully the latest 06z GFS is still being right biased (though it did great with the track of Irma close to Cuba within 24 hrs), because it tracks it over Plant City instead of Clearwater it shows wind gusts over 100 mph over the Orlando area.

Yep that wouldn't be good for us it that verified but I think the GFS is overdoing the intensity. This would be a far better scenario for Tampa but the NHC gives this no credence apparently. The Euro is dictating their forecast.

Unofficially the NHC is on record as saying to watch for the slowdown/stall and later they reminded us that we can monitor local radar for track information.

They have to be conservative and forecast for the worst scenario along the west coast should Irma decide to wobble west of the coastal metro areas. If Irma tracks inland I think some dry shear may reduce the intensity below that of the GFS, but the eastern strong side of the storm is still going to see the official NHC wind speed estimates.

[Blown Away]

00z Ukmet went over 7 mile bridge and Irma very close...
I didn't think it would go that far E...

[caneman]

00z Ukmet went over 7 mile bridge and Irma very close...
I didn't think it would go that far E...

Euro once again spot on
It split right between Key West and Big pine with each getting a piece of the eyewall. There is an app called Raindar us fisherman use and its clear to see on that. At 8 NHC say moving NNW so seems right on target

[otowntiger]

...
Could be- the local mets agree with you. I guess we'll see, but we are battened down and ready for whatever comes.

As a fellow Orlando resident, which local mets are you referring to?

We are watching channel 9 - they predict 70-80mph in Orange County and Brian Shields did seem to indicate that there is a possibility that the core of the storm 'could' track a little closer, as inPolk Co., and the winds would be higher. Didn't come out and say it would though. I still think what we get here will be more like what we saw from Francis or Jeanne in '04- long periods (hours) of t.s winds w/ occasional low end hurricane gusts. That's still nothing to sneeze at but was nothing compared to the 45 minutes of the intense conditions we got from Charley 80 mph sustained with 105 gusts. Sorry - I know you only asked a simple question and I rambled.

[caneman]

...
Could be- the local mets agree with you. I guess we'll see, but we are battened down and ready for whatever comes.

As a fellow Orlando resident, which local mets are you referring to?

We are watching channel 9 - they predict 70-80mph in Orange County and Brian Shields did seem to indicate that there is a possibility that the core of the storm 'could' track a little closer, as inPolk Co., and the winds would be higher. Didn't come out and say it would though. I still think what we get here will be more like what we saw from Francis or Jeanne in '04- long periods (hours) of t.s winds w/ occasional low end hurricane gusts. That's still nothing to sneeze at but was nothing compared to the 45 minutes of the intense conditions we got from Charley 80 mph sustained with 105 gusts. Sorry - I know you only asked a simple question and I rambled.

Power will likely be lost much longer now. Already 565,000 people without power. I lost power from Jeanne for 7 days here in Pinellas county

[tolakram]

Remember to move over to the discussion thread.

[otowntiger]

Power will likely be lost much longer now. Already 565,000 people with power. I lost power from Jeanne for 7 days here in Pinellas county

Agreed- regardless of the specific details of track and intensity the widespread nature of this storm's effects will leave a wide swath without power stretching utility crews further and making for longer restoration time frames. Our utility company says we could be out 7 -10 days.

[HurricaneFrances04]

00z Ukmet went over 7 mile bridge and Irma very close...
I didn't think it would go that far E...

It looked like the UKMET initialized too far NE

Ukmet 09/10 0Z - 23.6N 80.5W
NHC 09/10 0Z advisory - 23.3 N 80.8 W

[NDG]

00z Ukmet went over 7 mile bridge and Irma very close...
I didn't think it would go that far E...

Euro once again spot on
It split right between Key West and Big pine with each getting a piece of the eyewall. There is an app called Raindar us fisherman use and its clear to see on that. At 8 NHC say moving NNW so seems right on target

Nope, the 0z Euro actually had landfall over Key West if not a little to the west.

[Blown Away]

12z plots decent E shift.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z plots decent E shift.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

This is where rubber meets road now..EURO on its own as western outlier...all modeling east of NHC this morning with Naples landfall. Lets see what they do at 11 with the track. Have feeling they ride Euro till the end here with IRMA..

[MrJames]

Damn, UKMet may have nailed it.

[GBPackMan]

As of 13:15 UTC (9:15am EDT), the eye has now passed the islands per satellite imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Does seem to have some wobble and eyewall rebuilding. Last 2 frames spanning an hour shows a decidedly eastward bump.
12:15UTC shows the eyewall from Key West to Big Pine Key, but the 12:45 and 13:15 frames shows a decided NE bump. It goes from centered just south of Saddlebunch/Sugarloaf, then an E bump centered just south of Big Pine, then continues on just north of Big Pine.

Another interesting bit is from 10:45 until 12:15, over an hour, the storm seemed to have a temporary stall in one place, after which it had that E bump before turning north again over Big Pine, instead of being centered and crossing over the naval air station just east of Key West. This is a 25+ mile wobble almost due east... Yes it may just be a wobble, but, what if it is the start of a more eastern trend?

So are a few of the models seeing something that would account for a more eastern run with slightly earlier landfall SE of Naples? We can hope an everglades landfall would be best as it would deflate this beast sooner, and that much earlier instead of staying just offshore intensifying making it worse for the rest of the state including the panhandle.

[PerfectStorm]

Can a pro roll an updated projected sustained and wind gust model when new model outputs are out as hours pass? Especially for W Coast Naples to Tallahassee. Much appreciated to all providing the great analysis. Been on here since the PBP days.

[GBPackMan]

Some need to remember that many of the usual posters are in Florida and may have lost power/internet by now, so the information on the models may be a bit more scarce than usual.

[tolakram]

[GBPackMan]

I see a direct north movement from Big Pine (where it landed after a ENE jog/wobble), further east than even the 6z models expected (except GFS). Looks like it is possible to see a south of Naples landing based on current movement.