ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Keraunos‏Verified account @KeraunosObs 2m2 minutes ago

Big Pine Key & Cudjoe Key sont à présent dans l'oeil d'#Irma qui poursuit sa route vers le nord/nord-ouest. #Floride

Big Pine Key & Cudjoe Key are now in the eye of #Irma which proceeds to the North/Northwest. #Floride

[Alyono]

fairly clear turn north now. Little chance this goes west of Tampa

[CaptinCrunch]

Water north of key is 8 to 10 degrees warmer, plenty of fuel for strengthing and forward speed isn't expected to increase from the forecast of 7 to 9mph till early tomorrow when she fully goes on shore.

[gatorcane]

Sure looks NNE to me. Reminds me of Charley which took a more NNE track instead of N. Most models thought north.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

what time would the landfall declaration be over Big Pine Key??

addendum: which is worse for Tampa? a left trend or a more rightward trend?

[1900hurricane]

what time would the landfall declaration be over Big Pine Key??

ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
910 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT CUDJOE KEY IN LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the
lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT. A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h)
was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.

SUMMARY OF 910 AM EDT...1310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Mello

NNNN

[KBBOCA]

Dave Epstein‏Verified account @growingwisdom 10m10 minutes ago

About 1/2 of Miami-Dade county now without power.

Is there a link for this site?

Here you go:
https://www.fplmaps.com/

[KBBOCA]

John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 2m2 minutes ago

Hurricane Irma makes landfall at Cudjoe Key. A gust to 106 MPH reported in Big Pine Key.

[CaptinCrunch]

Sure looks NNE to me. Reminds me of Charley which took a more NNE track instead of N. Most models thought north.

Movement is almost due North with wobble toward NE as eyewall is cycling

[jpigott]

Wind field is impressive to the NE. Mia, Ft Laud, PBI already have reported winds gusting to hurricane force

[Michele B]

Sure looks NNE to me. Reminds me of Charley which took a more NNE track instead of N. Most models thought north.

I'm holding my breath it doesn't do a "Charley" on us!

[KBBOCA]

Qu'elle Surprise!!! [/sarcasm]


Breaking911 Nature‏ @B911Nature 3m3 minutes ago

North Bound Lane Of US 1 In Florida Keys Is Impassable

[embedded video clip]

 https://twitter.com/B911Nature/status/906870272904585216

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Trend east is better news for Tampa Bay... worse news for me, I think, as now I'm going to be back in the eyewall.

[meriland29]

Are her winds getting stronger or are they the same?

[KBBOCA]

Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago

OFFICIAL: #Irma has made landfall on Cudjoe Key, FL. The first Category 4 hurricane in the Keys since Donna, on the same date, in 1960.

[jlauderdal]

Conditions in Kendall:

John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 2m2 minutes ago

Gusting to 70 MPH. Will get worse


Also per John Morales a few minutes ago: 100 MPH gusts likely now for Miami high-rise buildings.

John also said the hurricane is overperforming due to the jog east

[tolakram]

Landfall as a cat 4. The graphic at the top of the page is wrong due to both rounding errors and the fact the NHC changed the criteria a few years back to account for kts to mph conversion.

[caneman]

what time would the landfall declaration be over Big Pine Key??

ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
910 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT CUDJOE KEY IN LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the
lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT. A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h)
was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.

SUMMARY OF 910 AM EDT...1310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Mello

NNNN

Is that movement confirmed as of 9 or a carry over from 5 Am or 8 am update? Makes all the difference for us in Tampa Bay- Sarasota area

[northjaxpro]

Eye appears to be tightening on radar with convection starting to wrapping around southern eyewall. She may be strengthening.

The last hurrah...Irma giving us one last "#@$% you" before landfall.

If that is the case, then I hope for landfall over Cape Sable and mainland Monroe, to keep the intense eyewall over relatively unpopulated areas & the Everglades.

Please I pray this will happen this way .The eye wall appears to be tightening as we post on here. Irma just may be intensifying again unfortunately.

[miamijaaz]

So, Miami's highest wind gust so far has been 100 mph and Big Pine Key 106 mph? How is that possible with Big Pine Key in the eye wall?