ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cjrciadt]

Sure looks NNE to me. Reminds me of Charley which took a more NNE track instead of N. Most models thought north.

The absolutely last sentence I wanted to hear!

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Michele B]

Dave Epstein‏Verified account @growingwisdom 10m10 minutes ago

About 1/2 of Miami-Dade county now without power.

Is there a link for this site?

Here you go:
https://www.fplmaps.com/

Thank you!

[KBBOCA]

By my rough count there are more than 750,00 without power in SE FL already according to FPL outage maps:

Miami Dade: 456.710
Broward: 182,150
Palm Beach: 103,900

https://www.fplmaps.com/

[Jevo]

One would have to assume the NHC backs away from the Euro and updates their track forecast based on movement over the last 5 hours.

[tolakram]

So, Miami's highest wind gust so far has been 100 mph and Big Pine Key 106 mph? How is that possible with Big Pine Key in the eye wall?

Most likely highest gusts near eye not sampled, or we don't know about them yet. In addition, this storm is huge with a very large wind field. Very reminiscent of Ike which was 'just' a cat 2.

[Nimbus]

what time would the landfall declaration be over Big Pine Key??

ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
910 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT CUDJOE KEY IN LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the
lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT. A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h)
was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.

SUMMARY OF 910 AM EDT...1310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Mello

NNNN

Is that movement confirmed as of 9 or a carry over from 5 Am or 8 am update? Makes all the difference for us in Tampa Bay- Sarasota area

NHC uses a long term average, currently looks about 345 degrees to me, Naples might get the weak eyewall if that trend continues.

[KBBOCA]

It's quite eerie that Irma is making landfall on same date as Donna, and the exact climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane season...!

Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago

OFFICIAL: #Irma has made landfall on Cudjoe Key, FL. The first Category 4 hurricane in the Keys since Donna, on the same date, in 1960.


Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 8m8 minutes ago

#Irma has made landfall in FL Keys as a Cat. 4 - 1st year on record that U.S. has had 2 Cat. 4+ #hurricane landfalls in same year. #Harvey

[Blown Away]

what time would the landfall declaration be over Big Pine Key??

addendum: which is worse for Tampa? a left trend or a more rightward trend?

It's a tough call which lower key to pick, I'd give it to Big Pine for bragging rights and No Name Pub may be open, j/k...

Eye tracking E of you is better than W...

[JtSmarts]

Irma is the largest she's ever been. Hurricane force winds extend 80 miles from the center and TS winds extend 220 miles from the center.

Irma remains similar to Jeanne (HWINDS 70 miles/ TSWINDS 205 MILES) and Gustav 08 (HWINDS 70 MILES/ TSWINDS 220 MILES)

[KBBOCA]

NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 8m8 minutes ago

Hurricane #Irma makes landfall at Cudjoe Key in the lower Florida Keys.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1319.shtml …?


 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/906870706264297472

[dukeblue219]

So, Miami's highest wind gust so far has been 100 mph and Big Pine Key 106 mph? How is that possible with Big Pine Key in the eye wall?

Hurricanes are too often depicted as uniform wind fields (or a discrete point). Big storms throw off strong bands that can be strong and tornado-y.

I didn't actually see any confirmed 100mph gusts in Miami, though. There was speculation of such at the top of high rises, but then you're not comparing apples to oranges with Big Pine Key.

[Michele B]

Conditions in Kendall:

John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 2m2 minutes ago

Gusting to 70 MPH. Will get worse


Also per John Morales a few minutes ago: 100 MPH gusts likely now for Miami high-rise buildings.

John also said the hurricane is overperforming due to the jog east

What does that mean? How can a Cat 4 storm "OVERperform???"

[JtSmarts]

Conditions in Kendall:

John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 2m2 minutes ago

Gusting to 70 MPH. Will get worse


Also per John Morales a few minutes ago: 100 MPH gusts likely now for Miami high-rise buildings.

John also said the hurricane is overperforming due to the jog east

What does that mean? How can a Cat 4 storm "OVERperform???"

I believe he meant the storm was overperforming in the Miami area based upon what they were expecting.

[forecasterjack]

We have landfall!

[dexterlabio]

Anyone in Florida who can describe the current conditons with Irma? How does she compare with Matthew?

[KBBOCA]

UGH. Threat increasing for Tallahassee:

NWS Tallahassee‏Verified account @NWSTallahassee 3m3 minutes ago

Latest track does not look good for Tallahassee. Hurricane force winds are expected. Falling trees are going to be dangerous!

 https://twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/906872588797915136

[doomhaMwx]

9:30am EDT(1:30pm UTC) radar image...

[KBBOCA]

Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 8m8 minutes ago

#Irma's landfall pressure of 929 mb is lowest for U.S. landfalling #hurricane since Katrina (920 mb) & for FL landfall since Andrew (922 mb)

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906872165265424384

[NDG]

Met at CBS 4 Miami says that winds are gusting to 92 mph in Miami Beach.