ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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KBBOCA
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11581 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:18 pm

Philippe Papin‏ @pppapin 7m7 minutes ago

Here's a 200-frame #radar loop of #Irma starting at landfall in the #FloridaKeys, & ending as it approaches landfall in #Naples, #FL.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/906943227806339073


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11582 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:18 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro shifted a little to the east.


It had GFS envy. 8-)


Interesting how the GFS had it better during the past couple of days of the exact track in the short term, Euro was a little left biased.
Last edited by NDG on Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11583 Postby BYG Jacob » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:19 pm

Steve wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
Exactly. A large hurricane is dangerous because they produce higher storm surge.

Again, I acknowledged Irma is a very dangerous hurricane, my point is she would be much more dangerous if she hadn't hit Cuba.


No question about that for anyone who saw Barbuda end of last week. We ain't out the woods by a long shot and millions of people have effects ahead. Also we will have to wait for live reports out of the hardest hit areas of the Keys. Potential was extraordinary, but so far almost everything I've seen has been minimal compared to a certain Weatherbell met's tweet the other day of a $1T storm. We have a long way to go, but I don't think anyone would argue with the fact that so far it's been the opposite of Harvey which didn't have much bark but had a lot of bite. Irma has been the opposite. Bark for days and days but nowhere near what we could have faced here in the USA. Caribbean Islands have been destroyed, and maybe some of The Keys are, but reports are still slow there.

The Antilles would like a word with you about Irma having no bite.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11584 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:19 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Janie2006 wrote:They call it the "opportunity of a lifetime". I call it the opportunity for an early trip to the afterlife. Evidently they aren't taking this seriously.


Agreed. I do not know why anyone would be there.


Cos it's the opportunity of a lifetime, Ptarmigan! :P
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11585 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:20 pm

Michele B wrote:
Seriously? "Extreme Wind Warning"?

Isn't' this redundant?


No it triggers WEA (cell phone alerts) and tells people that are still there that the worst is about to come.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11586 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:20 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11587 Postby toto » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:20 pm

Marco Island, a highly populated urban area next to Naples, is going to get blasted by Irma's NE eye wall.

.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11588 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:21 pm

Terrible storm can only imagine how bad it could have been if it had not spent so much time over Cuba. Has anyone heard any reports from
Key west?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11589 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:21 pm

Never seen an update like that. Basically that is a Storm Surge Emergency (like a Tornado Emergency).
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#11590 Postby HenkL » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:21 pm

URNT12 KNHC 101734
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 10/17:14:40Z
B. 25 deg 25 min N
081 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2557 m
D. 64 kt
E. 212 deg 12 nm
F. 300 deg 79 kt
G. 194 deg 7 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 16 C / 3042 m
J. 20 C / 3059 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 3011A IRMA OB 19
MAX FL WIND 100 KT 151 / 37 NM 15:02:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 94 KT 328 / 12 NM 17:20:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 001 / 1 K
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11591 Postby flamingosun » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:22 pm

Fox news reporting they have word from officials that Monroe County is "closed until further notice." Residents are not going to be allowed back in any time soon. No further Info was given he said, but that additional word would be forthcoming. Hope that just means time is needed to assess damage. ..
Last edited by flamingosun on Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11592 Postby wx247 » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:24 pm

What is Jeff P. doing? Does he have a plan? This looks incredibly dangerous!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11593 Postby Rail Dawg » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:26 pm

Reporting live from Naples.

Interesting that you get these "dead zones" between the bands.

Wind has dropped to maybe 50mph.

Might give some a false sense of security but I know that the northern eyewall in a couple hours is really going to hammer us here.

Ready for the eye!
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11594 Postby Meteorcane » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Never seen an update like that. Basically that is a Storm Surge Emergency (like a Tornado Emergency).


It is a relatively new product that had not been issued until recently due to the major cane drought in the US. It was issued in Matthew for Cape Canaveral, and Harvey for the Rockport area. I think it may have been issued by San Juan for some of the Virgin islands with Irma as well the the keys this AM.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11595 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:28 pm

Steve wrote:No question about that for anyone who saw Barbuda end of last week. We ain't out the woods by a long shot and millions of people have effects ahead. Also we will have to wait for live reports out of the hardest hit areas of the Keys. Potential was extraordinary, but so far almost everything I've seen has been minimal compared to a certain Weatherbell met's tweet the other day of a $1T storm. We have a long way to go, but I don't think anyone would argue with the fact that so far it's been the opposite of Harvey which didn't have much bark but had a lot of bite. Irma has been the opposite. Bark for days and days but nowhere near what we could have faced here in the USA. Caribbean Islands have been destroyed, and maybe some of The Keys are, but reports are still slow there.


I'm feeling / thinking along the same lines.

Compared to what Barbuda, St. Barts, St. Martin, etc etc. .... faced, SO FAR, many areas of Florida seem to have been spared catastrophic damage. Obviously the worst could still be ahead: Marco island, Naples, Ft. Myers - that surge situation is terrifying to consider. So please don't think I'm downplaying this storm. I recognize a huge catastrophe could be unfolding in coastal SW FL.

But I confess to getting annoyed by some pix of so-called "BIG damage" in Miami (a few destroyed awnings...) I've seen floating around on Twitter, when compared to the pix of TOTAL DEVASTATION coming out of the Islands, and also compared to the post-Harvey pictures in Houston.

All storms are terrible. And I will be extremely thankful and grateful for answered prayer if FL and the Southeast have been spared much damage.

Perhaps all the BARK at least helped people to take the storm seriously and evacuate. No doubt many lives have been saved. But yes, it all is exhausting and can seem like there's almost a "let down" when the worst-ever natural disaster (for the CONUS) does NOT materialize. [It DID materialize for the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands!] I'll take the let-down every time, thank you!

Overall though, I think much of the media and the vast majoritiy of forecasters have done a pretty good job of sticking to facts and not overhyping things...
Last edited by KBBOCA on Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11596 Postby toto » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:29 pm

flamingosun wrote:

Fox news reporting they have word from officials that Monroe County is "closed until further notice." Residents are not going to be allowed back in any time soon. No further Info was given he said, but that additional word would be forthcoming. Hope that just means time is needed to assess damage. ..




One news report said there are 800 islands in the Florida keys.
How many islands will be left ?

.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11597 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:30 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Steve wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Again, I acknowledged Irma is a very dangerous hurricane, my point is she would be much more dangerous if she hadn't hit Cuba.


No question about that for anyone who saw Barbuda end of last week. We ain't out the woods by a long shot and millions of people have effects ahead. Also we will have to wait for live reports out of the hardest hit areas of the Keys. Potential was extraordinary, but so far almost everything I've seen has been minimal compared to a certain Weatherbell met's tweet the other day of a $1T storm. We have a long way to go, but I don't think anyone would argue with the fact that so far it's been the opposite of Harvey which didn't have much bark but had a lot of bite. Irma has been the opposite. Bark for days and days but nowhere near what we could have faced here in the USA. Caribbean Islands have been destroyed, and maybe some of The Keys are, but reports are still slow there.

The Antilles would like a word with you about Irma having no bite.


Did you not read "Caribbean"? I was backing up your point.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11598 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:31 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
A major tropical cyclone as large as Irma is terrible period. Cat 4 or Cat 5 it still equally destructive.


Exactly. A large hurricane is dangerous because they produce higher storm surge.

Again, I acknowledged Irma is a very dangerous hurricane, my point is she would be much more dangerous if she hadn't hit Cuba.


A large Category 5 hurricane would be extremely frightening. :eek: What scares me is that if people see a hurricane weakening from Category 5 to 4 or 3, it make them think they are going to be okay.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11599 Postby birddogsc » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:32 pm

Things are getting sporty in Naples...

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/2TRywcaNHMV
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#11600 Postby GCANE » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:32 pm

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