ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTPatrick]

Watching these videos tells me FL is very lucky that eastern eye wall came in primarily over state park land and state forest and didn't just drag along the coast from Marco to ST Pete.

[NDG]

Watching WFTV, Merritt Island, inundated with water. Plus a tornado warning for them!

Yeah, in our part of the state's coastline has been tornado apocalypse all afternoon.

[Hurrilurker]

Naples is getting absolutely roasted, and that's from the weaker (west) eyewall...

Yeah, I'm watching it on the Weather Channel. It's scary to think that's the "weak" side and it's now "only" a Cat-3 storm. Seen a ton of flooding way over in Miami as well. A direct hit from a Cat-5 eyewall would be unimaginable. I knew we've seen it on Barbuda, St. Barth's, etc., but if that were to happen in Miami it would be an epic disaster. I know there will be a lot of damage, but in a way you could say Florida got a bit of a break.

[TheStormExpert]

Just lost power here in Palm Beach Gardens.

[wxman57]

Naples is getting absolutely roasted, and that's from the weaker (west) eyewall...

Naples is in the northern eyewall. Officially, Irma is listed as a Cat 3 at landfall, but I haven't seen any evidence of that status in the recent recon mission. Could well be a Cat 2. That wind on TWC looked to be Cat 1.

[Meteorcane]

The wind measurements/video coming out of Naples do convince me this was still a Cat.3 at second florida landfall, sustained overland winds 90ish gusting to 130 in the northern eyewall (based mainly on convective signature), probably suggest brief pockets of sustained winds 110-120 occurring in the more active convective northeast side impacting rural areas east of Naples/San Marcos

[Hurricane_Apu]

Gust to 142 at Naples airport (per Weather Channel/NBC).

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the eye is right over that USTREAM Naples cam.

[CrazyC83]

Naples is getting absolutely roasted, and that's from the weaker (west) eyewall...

Naples is in the northern eyewall. Officially, Irma is listed as a Cat 3 at landfall, but I haven't seen any evidence of that status in the recent recon mission. Could well be a Cat 2. That wind on TWC looked to be Cat 1.

There was a sustained wind report of 112 mph at Marco Island. That alone supports cat 3.

[galaxy401]

142 mph gust seems quite high for a minimal cat 3 hurricane though. And that also assumes the stronger winds are over the Everglades.

[Stangfriik]

Can anyone more experienced than I confirm that she's moving due North and will miss the next forecast point? Or are these just wobbles?

[northjaxpro]

The wind measurements/video coming out of Naples do convince me this was still a Cat.3 at second florida landfall, sustained overland winds 90ish gusting to 130 in the northern eyewall (based mainly on convective signature), probably suggest brief pockets of sustained winds 110-120 occurring in the more active convective northeast side impacting rural areas east of Naples/San Marcos

I agree

[stormreader]

National media on TV now in the calm of the eye. Naples, Florida!

[supercane4867]

These wind gust reports are very impressive and way above the threshold that recon data suggests.
I wonder are they measured at standard ground levels?

[CrazyC83]

142 mph gust seems quite high for a minimal cat 3 hurricane though. And that also assumes the stronger winds are over the Everglades.

Yeah it might have been a bit higher. I'd set the landfall intensity at 105 kt (120 mph).

[Meteorcane]

142 mph gust seems quite high for a minimal cat 3 hurricane though. And that also assumes the stronger winds are over the Everglades.

Not particularly with friction overland you can easily get gusts in the 140 range from sustained winds 90-100 (which is what they look like in Naples based on the videos I have seen + observations).

[JaxGator]

TWC reporting inside the Naples eye wall. Had this storm not weakened, all of those standing trees would be on the ground

Regardless it's still intense as Mike P has been going through and winds at his location of 95 mph with gusts to 135.

Yeah, last 1-2 mins probably even above my estimate of 90-100mph, very impressive wind burst every now and then coming through. Eye will be very close now to Naples and his position.

*Mike B. I agree. Its impressive and powerful seeing the eyewall from his perspective Seeing more reporters getting hammered themselves too, though it look like the eye is right on them now per radar.

[MrJames]

5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 10
Location: 26.2°N 81.8°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 938 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[Aric Dunn]

oh that cam was marks..

[stormreader]

142 mph gust seems quite high for a minimal cat 3 hurricane though. And that also assumes the stronger winds are over the Everglades.

But I always suspected that their was potential for higher than normal gusts with this system. Pretty sure the sustained winds as given to us by the NHC are correct. But storm was basically holding on to its potential as moved north of the keys. That low pressure hold over from when it was a top end Cat 4 argued for stronger gusts than normal with it as a sustained Cat 3. That along with frictional effects on the east side of the eye....