ATL: JOSE - Models

[YoshiMike]

Hey guys, I have a question about the models. I tried looking at Google as to not bother you guys as they are kind of noob questions.

Does the cyclonic loop that is projected to happen affect the strength and or pressure of the storm itself? I know it can definitely affect the path of the storm tremendously, but what about the strength? Or is just going through a rough area and that's why it's been weakening

[TheStormExpert]

12z JMA a continuation of today's 12z UKMET?

Hr.168

[BYG Jacob]

Hey guys, I have a question about the models. I tried looking at Google as to not bother you guys as they are kind of noob questions.

Does the cyclonic loop that is projected to happen affect the strength and or pressure of the storm itself? I know it can definitely affect the path of the storm tremendously, but what about the strength? Or is just going through a rough area and that's why it's been weakening

It shouldn't affect the strength too much, he will still be over water warm enough to support him. The reasoning he is weakening right now is shear and dry air.

[Kazmit]

A LOT of uncertainty after the loop.

[jabman98]

That image looks like an octopus or something. Paths going in every direction.

[BYG Jacob]

A LOT of uncertainty after the loop.

You might as spin a wheel to guess where this goes.

[jonj2040]

With the level of uncertainty after the loop atm should the solutions of even the more reliable models such as euro be highly questioned?

Also, I noticed that the JMA (which I had just learned of recently so I am unfamiliar with its performance) looks to be, in this particular situation, an average between the UKmet, which I did particularly well with Matthew-'16 and Irma-'17, and the Euro which we all know is old reliable, and it makes landfall somewhere from Jupiter beach to Grant/Valkaria. This is concerning to me as I live just a few miles north in Palm Bay.

Of course UKmet ends at 72hr and could very well make a sharp north hook in the southern Bahamas post the runs end which would punch holes in my stated thought process.

And obviously I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.

Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.

-JJ

[Ken711]

With the level of uncertainty after the loop atm should the solutions of even the more reliable models such as euro be highly questioned?

Also, I noticed that the JMA (which I had just learned of recently so I am unfamiliar with its performance) looks to be, in this particular situation, an average between the UKmet, which I did particularly well with Matthew-'16 and Irma-'17, and the Euro which we all know is old reliable, and it makes landfall somewhere from Jupiter beach to Grant/Valkaria. This is concerning to me as I live just a few miles north in Palm Bay.

Of course UKmet ends at 72hr and could very well make a sharp north hook in the southern Bahamas post the runs end which would punch holes in my stated thought process.

And obviously I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.

Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.

-JJ

Way too early to see where it heads after the loop, but I would say heading north away from Florida is a good bet at this point in the models.

[PTPatrick]

Umm.....guys.....look at what the UKMET does. Its the blue line. Are you kidding me right now????


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Me no likey the U.K. Either...my home of Mississippi and the NOgOM has a storied history with storms that should have otherwise been fish or EAst coast hits THat pushed into loops or southwest paths near the Bahamas and florida...see 1947, Betsy, Andrew and Katrina. Those don't end well for us if they cross Florida and end up in the gulf.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok, we're still busy dealing with Irma here on the peninsula and I've only been keeping a 10% watch on Jose. The wind is still gusting to about 50MPH outside and here I am waiting on 00z models for this sucker. This loop de loop looks way too much like Jeanne. Jose, we aren't having any of you. Florida is closed for business at the moment.

[jabman98]

I really don't like the look of Jose either. I think the outflow from Irma is a bit of a wildcard, especially since she went a bit further east than was forecasted yesterday. Wondering what models will show for Jose.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

NEEEXXXXXTTTTT UP ..... lol

[cjrciadt]

Considering how the UKMEt has done with Irma.. I'm already have this in my radar..

[jlauderdal]

NEEEXXXXXTTTTT UP ..... lol

Stoo, the generator was started a few hours ago due to irma

[jlauderdal]

Considering how the UKMEt has done with Irma.. I'm already have this in my radar..

When will we get our first NAM post on this thread?

[Aric Dunn]

Considering how the UKMEt has done with Irma.. I'm already have this in my radar..

When will we get our first NAM post on this thread?

well since it only goes out 84 hours.. at least 3 days ?

[Powellrm]

Considering how the UKMEt has done with Irma.. I'm already have this in my radar..

When will we get our first NAM post on this thread?

You leave the NAM out of this.

[GeneratorPower]

If ukm shows a 922 mb storm in the sw Bahamas, that's very concerning.

Great.

[weathaguyry]

After the turn, it appears that a ridge will build over this, and make it head WNW and eventually NW, after that there are the dying remnants of Irma over the Ohio/WV area, that would kick this out to sea if it moves off shore, or throw it back into land somewhere if it stays there, it will all depend on how far South/West he can get after the loop, and what the remnants of Irma do as he rounds the ridge, Once he completes his loop, models will likely have a better hold on him, since they aren't always perfect with predicting loops or anything for that matter