ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

Last time I saw the models they were showing 80-90 mph wind gusts in NE coastal FL later tonight if not tomorrow morning.

NHC website has peak gusts in the low 60s for the next 3 hours.. then Dropping back into the 50s until mid morning at my locale

So far the models have been right.

I have been constantly monitoring the tabular hourly forecast. Are you saying this data may not verify?

[jlauderdal]

Power surged here for the first time this storm...lights flickered and Comcast boxes reset.

We lost power at 2..on generator now..portable ac, fridge wi fi...learned my lesson in wilma, irma felt stronger here

[lisa0825]

Hemingway House curator confirms thumb-kitties are safe!
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... =611136941

[northjaxpro]

Hi northjaxpro, enjoy your posts since they are 1) level headed and always seem rooted in good science and 2) somewhat applicable to Savannah...

Very interested in your thoughts...If Irma were to maintain it's northerly track...would NE Florida / SE Georgia benefit more from a weaker storm due to more time over land, or would we suffer more from a closer one?

As it stands now Savannah has been very calm...a few sprinkles, a couple of stiff breezes...

If Irma follows the UKMET model track, which is east of the NHC projected track, Savannah will see an increase in some rain and wind. The NHC track turns Irma N/NW over North Central Florida, then up into western GA into Alabama. The NHC projected track, if it verifies, would indeed not give much weather to the Savannah area because Irma would be moving away from them.

Sorry if this repeats. I posted it and it went away!

If Irma tracks N/NW out of the state, the Panhandle will feel her effects, too. That means every county in FL will have been "touched" by Irma.

Impressive!

Yes, if Irma does a N/NW track, that would be the case!

[AdamFirst]

Power surged here for the first time this storm...lights flickered and Comcast boxes reset.

We lost power at 2..on generator now..portable ac, fridge wi fi...learned my lesson in wilma, irma felt stronger here

Had a few surges today but power has remained on all day so far. Still pretty hefty gusts outside. Just a few more hours to go.

KNOCK ON WOOD

[linnie]

thanks for the info!! i can't tell you how much i appreciate the people on this site

[NDG]

NHC website has peak gusts in the low 60s for the next 3 hours.. then Dropping back into the 50s until mid morning at my locale

So far the models have been right.

I have been constantly monitoring the tabular hourly forecast. Are you saying this data may not verify?

Correct.
The Euro forecasts 80-90 mph wind gusts along the coast, the GFS shows 70-80 mph wind gusts.

[cjrciadt]

Losted power for good... Long night ahead.

[jdjaguar]

So far the models have been right.

I have been constantly monitoring the tabular hourly forecast. Are you saying this data may not verify?

Correct.
The Euro forecasts 80-90 mph wind gusts along the coast, the GFS shows 70-80 mph wind gusts.

Why wouldn't the NHC adjust the tabular forecast accordingly?
Confused, and concerned

[JaxGator]

There was a possible tornado touchdown in both Vilano Beach and just north of St. Augustine on North Blvd near the Court House. Tree damage, signs down and power lines down on the road. The St. John's County Sheriffs Office's Facebook is the source. The winds are increasing at my locale with gusts close to Tropical Storm force and had at least two brown outs.

[stormreader]

TV reporter in West Palm Beach says they have been experiencing hurricane force gusts for 9 hours now. Should continue further into the night.

[NDG]

I have been constantly monitoring the tabular hourly forecast. Are you saying this data may not verify?

Correct.
The Euro forecasts 80-90 mph wind gusts along the coast, the GFS shows 70-80 mph wind gusts.

Why wouldn't the NHC adjust the tabular forecast accordingly?
Confused, and concerned

Are you sure is the NHC and not your NWS office?

[pcolaman]

Was reported that far away as Mobile bay that the bay water was going out ! What a huge storm!

[aperson]

In my opinion, these rain bands are going to continue to be a serious threat throughout the night. There is really heavy convection on the NE side of the system. Tons of water vapor being drawn up: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-10

Conditions are good for strong convection in the Atlantic and Gulf stream. Warm sea surface temps:


CAPE is high in the 3-4k range in the western atlantic and gulf stream where these rain bands are drawing from:

[CrazyC83]

One meteorological question: if the incoming trough merges with the remnants of Irma, then gets back over water and a TC forms out of that, would it still be named Irma or take a new name?

[Portastorm]

One meteorological question: if the incoming trough merges with the remnants of Irma, then gets back over water and a TC forms out of that, would it still be named Irma or take a new name?

Yes. Still Irma. We had a similar situation here in Texas with Harvey and NWS answered that question.

[jdjaguar]

Correct.
The Euro forecasts 80-90 mph wind gusts along the coast, the GFS shows 70-80 mph wind gusts.

Why wouldn't the NHC adjust the tabular forecast accordingly?
Confused, and concerned

Are you sure is the NHC and not your NWS office?

Its NWS now that I verified it, a bit alarming that they disseminate different data than the NHC.
It should be uniform in this day and age.

[Michele B]

Fairly heavy rains now, but no wind. We must be in what used to be the eye

[lando]

Anyone know how Floridasun is

[lisa0825]

Anyone know how Floridasun is

I have been wondering too -- haven't seen an update in a long time.