ATL: JOSE - Models

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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#221 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:26 pm

Where do you guys get UKMET ensembles? First time I saw them posted was during Harvey.
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ronjon
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#222 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:33 pm

12z UKMET has Jose into Vero Beach after its loop. Storm 12 on the link.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#223 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:44 pm

although, given the trends, the ec solution of a very weak Jose may be correct. This is getting blasted
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#224 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:00 pm

Weather150 wrote:Let's wait until mid-week to get a better idea like Wed-Thurs when Jose is midway through the loop, by then we will have a better idea of where it will head. Right now is not a reasonable time to really know.

Nobody is predicting exactly where Jose will go in a week, we're just noting the trends of the track and the impact those trends have.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#225 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:01 pm

Alyono wrote:although, given the trends, the ec solution of a very weak Jose may be correct. This is getting blasted

Yup, that trough is blasting Jose with shear right now.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#226 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:01 pm

Alyono wrote:although, given the trends, the ec solution of a very weak Jose may be correct. This is getting blasted

Can't be too sure, once you lose the influence of Irma it may strengthen quickly so the GFS may be close on intensity
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BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#227 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:04 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Alyono wrote:although, given the trends, the ec solution of a very weak Jose may be correct. This is getting blasted

Can't be too sure, once you lose the influence of Irma it may strengthen quickly so the GFS may be close on intensity

GFS overdoing the intensity and the Euro under-doing it in this case, Jose likely gets to high cat 2/3
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#228 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:07 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Alyono wrote:although, given the trends, the ec solution of a very weak Jose may be correct. This is getting blasted

Can't be too sure, once you lose the influence of Irma it may strengthen quickly so the GFS may be close on intensity

To sum this up. Nicole 2016.
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stormreader

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#229 Postby stormreader » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:18 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
Alyono wrote:although, given the trends, the ec solution of a very weak Jose may be correct. This is getting blasted

Can't be too sure, once you lose the influence of Irma it may strengthen quickly so the GFS may be close on intensity

To sum this up. Nicole 2016.

It does have that look and feel, as Nicole did after Mathew.

One difference. Nicole was much later in the season, a storm in Jose's placement at this time of year would seem to have more west options.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#230 Postby clipper35 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:44 pm

18z skirts east coast and New England and then out to sea. Maybe new foundland /Nova Scotia impacts, gfs is starting to agree with euro.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#231 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:35 pm

clipper35 wrote:18z skirts east coast and New England and then out to sea. Maybe new foundland /Nova Scotia impacts, gfs is starting to agree with euro.


GFS has been all over the place this season... grain of salt.. grain of salt..
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#232 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
clipper35 wrote:18z skirts east coast and New England and then out to sea. Maybe new foundland /Nova Scotia impacts, gfs is starting to agree with euro.


GFS has been all over the place this season... grain of salt.. grain of salt..

But it has also favored East tracks and we know how those have ended up :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#233 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:52 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Where do you guys get UKMET ensembles? First time I saw them posted was during Harvey.


Here’s the link I use. You can toggle the intensity on or off too for the tracks.
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#234 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:55 pm

Here are the UK ensembles with intensity as well. They performed quite well with Irma and consistently showed the eye moving over Cuba, although they were a tad too far south.

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#235 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:45 pm

UKMET is the lone wolf.. 18z models including all the GFS.. shifted way east.. lol

wonder what the 00z ukmet is going to do....

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#236 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:UKMET is the lone wolf.. 18z models including all the GFS.. shifted way east.. lol

wonder what the 00z ukmet is going to do....

Image


That is quite an outlier.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#237 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:25 pm

cajungal wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
nasalangley wrote:Image

That left turn at the end of run :double:


That blue line looks like a weird track over the Florida panhandle hugging the Louisiana coastline to Texas.



Euro ensembles be like, "let's hit Houston, hit em while they're down. No, let's hit Halifax! Seal flipper pie and poutine! What about Buffalo?...no not Buffalo...They've suffered enough"
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#238 Postby brghteys1216 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:57 pm

UKMET has me feeling uneasy, that model seems to really perform well around Florida. Did great with Irma and Matthew. I booked a flight on Southwest for Sunday just in case, I'm not riding out another hurricane.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#239 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:43 pm

gfs is a few hours slower
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#240 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:06 pm

not much change to the gfs
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