ATL: JOSE - Models

[ColdMiser123]

UKMET continues to double down.

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2017 0 26.9N 69.6W 970 69
1200UTC 12.09.2017 12 27.4N 68.5W 966 71
0000UTC 13.09.2017 24 26.7N 66.6W 963 71
1200UTC 13.09.2017 36 25.3N 65.7W 965 74
0000UTC 14.09.2017 48 24.1N 65.7W 963 74
1200UTC 14.09.2017 60 23.3N 67.0W 959 82
0000UTC 15.09.2017 72 23.1N 69.0W 960 81
1200UTC 15.09.2017 84 23.2N 71.7W 957 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 96 23.6N 74.2W 951 83
1200UTC 16.09.2017 108 24.2N 76.7W 945 84
0000UTC 17.09.2017 120 24.9N 78.6W 946 89
1200UTC 17.09.2017 132 26.0N 80.0W 937 84
0000UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.2N 81.1W 958 61

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET continues to double down.

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2017 0 26.9N 69.6W 970 69
1200UTC 12.09.2017 12 27.4N 68.5W 966 71
0000UTC 13.09.2017 24 26.7N 66.6W 963 71
1200UTC 13.09.2017 36 25.3N 65.7W 965 74
0000UTC 14.09.2017 48 24.1N 65.7W 963 74
1200UTC 14.09.2017 60 23.3N 67.0W 959 82
0000UTC 15.09.2017 72 23.1N 69.0W 960 81
1200UTC 15.09.2017 84 23.2N 71.7W 957 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 96 23.6N 74.2W 951 83
1200UTC 16.09.2017 108 24.2N 76.7W 945 84
0000UTC 17.09.2017 120 24.9N 78.6W 946 89
1200UTC 17.09.2017 132 26.0N 80.0W 937 84
0000UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.2N 81.1W 958 61

either it is seeing something the others are not or it missing some data.. lol

that what 6 runs in a row... but this run is even farther west.. now the middlw of the state near lake Okeechobee

crazy

[txwatcher91]

UKMET continues to double down.

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2017 0 26.9N 69.6W 970 69
1200UTC 12.09.2017 12 27.4N 68.5W 966 71
0000UTC 13.09.2017 24 26.7N 66.6W 963 71
1200UTC 13.09.2017 36 25.3N 65.7W 965 74
0000UTC 14.09.2017 48 24.1N 65.7W 963 74
1200UTC 14.09.2017 60 23.3N 67.0W 959 82
0000UTC 15.09.2017 72 23.1N 69.0W 960 81
1200UTC 15.09.2017 84 23.2N 71.7W 957 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 96 23.6N 74.2W 951 83
1200UTC 16.09.2017 108 24.2N 76.7W 945 84
0000UTC 17.09.2017 120 24.9N 78.6W 946 89
1200UTC 17.09.2017 132 26.0N 80.0W 937 84
0000UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.2N 81.1W 958 61

either it is seeing something the others are not or it missing some data.. lol

that what 6 runs in a row...

It did the same thing with Matthew last year at this timeframe... it was pretty much by itself with occasional GEFS/GFS support but that was it.

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET continues to double down.

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2017 0 26.9N 69.6W 970 69
1200UTC 12.09.2017 12 27.4N 68.5W 966 71
0000UTC 13.09.2017 24 26.7N 66.6W 963 71
1200UTC 13.09.2017 36 25.3N 65.7W 965 74
0000UTC 14.09.2017 48 24.1N 65.7W 963 74
1200UTC 14.09.2017 60 23.3N 67.0W 959 82
0000UTC 15.09.2017 72 23.1N 69.0W 960 81
1200UTC 15.09.2017 84 23.2N 71.7W 957 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 96 23.6N 74.2W 951 83
1200UTC 16.09.2017 108 24.2N 76.7W 945 84
0000UTC 17.09.2017 120 24.9N 78.6W 946 89
1200UTC 17.09.2017 132 26.0N 80.0W 937 84
0000UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.2N 81.1W 958 61

either it is seeing something the others are not or it missing some data.. lol

that what 6 runs in a row...

It did the same thing with Matthew last year at this timeframe... it was pretty much by itself with occasional GEFS/GFS support but that was it.

"that was it"
what ?

[txwatcher91]

either it is seeing something the others are not or it missing some data.. lol

that what 6 runs in a row...

It did the same thing with Matthew last year at this timeframe... it was pretty much by itself with occasional GEFS/GFS support but that was it.

"that was it"
what ?

Last year with Matthew the UKMET was basically all by itself with predicting a storm that traveled up the coast of Florida. Everything else with the exception of some GFS/GEFS runs were way OTS. The Euro was the furthest OTS and the NWS banked on it being right. Turns out those models were completely wrong and the UKMET was insanely accurate. It looks like a similar situation where the UKMET is by itself again... whether it’s right though who knows.

[AutoPenalti]

Wasn't UKMET also the one that forecasted Harvey correctly?

[Alyono]

this will need to intensify and not weaken during the next couple of days in order for Jose to pose a threat to the USA

[Aric Dunn]

The Euro is even faster on the turn for the 00z.. weird. it does not happen often the EURO and UKMET are so far apart..

[Alyono]

EC solution makes no sense as it practically dissipates this

This is a classic example of why we should NOT hug the EC as much as some here do

[Hurrilurker]

this will need to intensify and not weaken during the next couple of days in order for Jose to pose a threat to the USA

I don't know about that,there is a lot of water between a Jose and the US and a long time considering the loop before it even gets moving. After it gets out of its own wake it will have time and opportunity to intensify although no one knows what the other factors (shear, water vapor content, etc.) will be at that time. Although unless it goes west and south it will probably be over only moderately warm waters, probably not supporting a major hurricane easily. But then, it doesn't need to be a major hurricane to be a "threat" to the US...

[bob rulz]

Wasn't UKMET also the one that forecasted Harvey correctly?

And weren't they also the first model to predict Irma hitting Cuba? I may be wrong, that's why I'm wondering, haha.

[clipper35]

Looks more and more likely that Jose will scoot out to sea, looks like ridge in Atlantic is weaker and trof in Midwest will force Jose out to sea

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wasn't UKMET also the one that forecasted Harvey correctly?

And weren't they also the first model to predict Irma hitting Cuba? I may be wrong, that's why I'm wondering, haha.

That blue line has been deadly accurate lately. It better be wrong this time...Its been the leader of trends with Matt Harvey and Irma. Untill it flips out to sea my shutters stay up.

[sponger]

Very Jeanne like.

[txwatcher91]

Although the UKMET is an outlier, I did notice the 06z NAVGEM shifted a good deal south and west. and the HWRF seems to be a compromise between the GFS and the UKMET so it has a little support, just not much. I've noticed with tropical systems that usually when the UK and Euro are so far apart, the Euro ends up caving to the UK solution (or close to it) more times than not.

[weathaguyry]

I don't know how much trust I would put into the models right now, it looks like the timing would have to be pretty good to catch a ride with the trough and go out to sea, I think that it if it moves a little faster, it would hook back in before the trough gets to it. just my 1000000% amateur opinion and not to be taken with any seriousness.

[GBPackMan]

Wasn't UKMET also the one that forecasted Harvey correctly?

The UK models had predicted it going much further south into Cuba, just inland from the southern shore before the turn, a much slower turn sending it into the gulf (several towards the panhandle) most runs, and over Cuba for a much longer duration.... It was always the westernmost outlier. It showed the trend much better overall but was a bit more "extreme" relating to far it would move outside of 48 hours, putting less weight on the trough and upper level shear.

[otowntiger]

Wasn't UKMET also the one that forecasted Harvey correctly?

The UK models had predicted it going much further south into Cuba, just inland from the southern shore before the turn, a much slower turn sending it into the gulf (several towards the panhandle) most runs, and over Cuba for a much longer duration.... It was always the westernmost outlier. It showed the trend much better overall but was a bit more "extreme" relating to far it would move outside of 48 hours, putting less weight on the trough and upper level shear.

I guess it depends on your definition of 'extreme' but it sure didn't wind up that far off in my opinion. When. All the models were still showing an east coast event, ukmet was taking Irma to Cuba and back north into sw Florida IIRC.

[Tuffy]

Jose is sure going to cause one or more models to mess up their verification error for the season.....

[GBPackMan]

Wasn't UKMET also the one that forecasted Harvey correctly?

The UK models had predicted it going much further south into Cuba, just inland from the southern shore before the turn, a much slower turn sending it into the gulf (several towards the panhandle) most runs, and over Cuba for a much longer duration.... It was always the westernmost outlier. It showed the trend much better overall but was a bit more "extreme" relating to far it would move outside of 48 hours, putting less weight on the trough and upper level shear.

I guess it depends on your definition of 'extreme' but it sure didn't wind up that far off in my opinion. When. All the models were still showing an east coast event, ukmet was taking Irma to Cuba and back north into sw Florida IIRC.

The real track ended up closer with UKMET and Euro than the others going 48-72 hours out, but with its westerly movement both were still consistently south and west of actual track. Once it made that northern turn, UK and Euro were consistently too far west and the UK model lost its accuracy at that point. For the westerly motion, it showed a trend but did not have the accuracy of other models. Some are excellent at 6-24 hours, some are better at 24-48, but accuracy for all of them degrades greatly beyond 48 hours, meaning you have to look at the trend, not actual positioning.
Other models did much better after that northern turn, as if some models can handle East/West interactions better, and others can handle north/south interactions better. After the turn GFS was much more spot on than the Euro/UK models that kept it out in the Gulf heading towards the panhandle.