ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I'm not sure what tropical characteristics Irma still hangs on to. Looking at the latest surface analysis, I see temps as low as 61F in the center of Irma.

Let's see:

1. Warm core? Nope
2. Organized convection around center? Nope
3. Strongest wind near center? Nope
4. Non-frontal? Nope

I figure the NHC doesn't want to confuse people by calling it post-tropical as they did with Sandy. However, they are now free to issue advisories on "post-tropical" (extratropical) storms.

It appears that Irma was transitioning to extratropical as it tracked up the Peninsula. The wind field nearly tripled in the process, and it lost its core of intense winds. That spared a smaller part of the Peninsula from intense wind damage but caused the whole peninsula to get moderate to strong TS winds with Cat 1 hurricane gusts. Less severe damage, but over a larger area. Plus, the larger wind field meant a much greater fetch for the onshore winds, increasing the setup tide along the east coast, leading to the flooding. All in all, quite a significant impact to the NE Caribbean, Florida, Georgia and S. Carolina. I'm ready for the season to end now...

I feel like if something's not tropical, it comes across to the public as being "less serious." Like we don't give extratropical cyclones names and I wonder if that makes it sound like they're not dangerous enough to be worth keeping track of. I'm not sure how the meteorology community deals with this. I mean there are some pretty savage nor'easters out there sometimes.

[Orlando]

It is finally starting to calm down in Chattanooga now. There are still a few gusts between quiet times. The gusts earlier were about 60 mph, but now they are more like 30 mph. I've been sitting in a den with lots of windows and have been watching the trees swaying in the wind on the eastern facing mountain side. They have been stronger winds than I would have imagined would hit here. It has been a steady rain most of the day.

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRMA ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092017
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2017

...CORRECTION FOR MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRMA IS BRINGING GENERALLY MODERATE RAIN
TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 65 MILES...110 KM...SW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...ESE OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE ONGOING SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHEAST.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 85.2
WEST. IRMA HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS, AND IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
IRMA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S., AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS MOTION AND APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IRMA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-------
RAINFALL...REMNANT BANDS FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRMA ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 5 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. LOCALIZED
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RISES ON CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS.
CLOSER TO IRMA'S REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI,
NORTHWEST ALABAMA, EASTERN ARKANSAS, WESTERN TENNESSEE, AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF IRMA, WHILE
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
EASTERN ALABAMA.

...SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 5
AM EDT

...ALABAMA...
EUFAULA MUNI ARPT 3.25
DOTHAN RGNL ARPT 2.76
MONTGOMERY 2.15

...FLORIDA...
FT. PIERCE ST. LUCIE CNTY INTL ARP 15.91
OVIEDO 14.76
CHEKIKA 13.83
INLIKITA 7 WNW 13.63
GAINESVILLE 2.4 NW 12.22
MIMS 8.5 W 12.11
NAPLES 11.87
NATIONAL KEY DEER NWR 11.74
OVIEDO 1.6 SE 11.54
CACHE 11.49
STARKE 11.33
WEST MELBOURNE 11.21
JACKSONVILLE 9.6 SE 11.17
FLEMING ISLAND 2.2 S 11.11
SWITZERLAND 4 WSW 11.11
PANTHER WEST 11.08
ORTEGA 1 WNW 11.00
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 3 NW 10.42
FORT MYERS INTL ARPT 10.33
SUMMERFIELD 3 SSE 10.04
OASIS RANGER STATION 9.67
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY ARPT 9.65
FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC ARPT 9.57
ORLANDO/SANFORD ARPT 9.42
OCHOPEE 9.27
OLUSTEE 3 N 9.17
ALACHUA 5 SE 8.61
MILES CITY 8.26
BELLAIR 3 W 8.11
OPA-LOCKA AIRPORT 7.99
ORLANDO EXECUTIVE ARPT 7.68
FORT WHITE 4 SE 7.57
INTERLACHEN 4 NW 6.22
TALLYRAND 2 NNW 6.15
DAYTONA BEACH INTL ARPT 5.86
HOLLYWOOD 3.9 SW 4.68
PALM CITY 3.1 NW 4.58
FLEMING ISLAND 1.7 SE 4.56
MIAMI BEACH 3.95
VERO BEACH 2.5 S 3.25

...GEORGIA...
ST MARYS RIVER NEAR KINGSLAND 5SSE 10.12
CUMBERLAND SOUND NEAR ST MARYS 5ENE 9.18
HOMELAND 7.99
THALMANN 5 ESE 7.89
BOYS ESTATE 3 S 7.84
FOLKSTON 10 SW 7.80
SAVANNAH/HUNTER AAF 6.88
KINGSLAND 3 WSW 6.85
ATKINSON 1 WSW 6.66
BRUNSWICK, MALCOLM MCKINNON ARPT 6.32
SAPELO ISLAND 1 NW 5.97

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
EDISTO ISLAND 2 WNW 6.05
BLACKVILLE 2 W 6.01
BEAUFORT MCAS 5.88
SANTEE 5 NNE 5.74
FOLLY FIELD 1 SW 5.67
CHARLESTON INTL ARPT 5.53
EASTOVER 6 SW 4.97
NEW ELLENTON 4 S 4.81
EDGEFIELD 4.12
SUMTER 4.11
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT 3.14

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...ALABAMA...
TROY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 45
WEEDON FIELD AIRPORT 43
ANNISTON ARPT ASOS 40
MONTGOMERY REGIONAL AIRPORT 40

...FLORIDA...
NAPLES 2 ENE 142
MARCO ISLAND 1 E 130
LELY 2 ESE 122
BIG PINE KEY 2 NNW 120
QUAIL CREEK ESTATES 2 SSW 112
NORTH PERRY AIRPO 2 WNW 109
KEY BISCAYNE 8 SSE 99
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL 1 W 99
NORTH PERRY AIRPO 3 WSW 98
SWEETWATER 2 NE 96
CAPE CANAVERAL 3 NNE 94
OCEAN REEF 8 SE 93
BELLE MEADE 1 S 92
KEY LARGO 8 SSE 92
OCHOPEE 1 W 92
CACHE AT EVERGLADES 91
KEY WEST 2 W 91
ROYAL PALM RANGER S 4 W 91
CORAL GABLES 1 ESE 90
OCEAN REEF 8 SSE 89
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTL ARPT 89
MAYPORT NAVAL STATION 87
PORT EVERGLADES 87
DEERFIELD BEACH 3 W 86
JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 86
KEY LARGO 1 SE 85
REDLAND 8 NNW 85
FORT MYERS FAA/AP 84
SUNRISE 1 W 84
FLAGLER BEACH 83
GOULDS 1 NE 83
HOMESTEAD PARK 1 WSW 83
OAKLAND PARK 3 NW 83
PINECREST 2 SSW 82
FIU SOUTH CAMPUS 81
HAULOVER CANAL 3 E 81
POMPANO BEACH AIR 1 ESE 81
RSW SOUTHWEST FLORIDA A 81
IMMOKALEE 2 ESE 80
SOUTH MIAMI 2 W 80
FISHER ISLAND 3 ESE 79
FIU NORTH CAMPUS 1 ESE 79
FORT DESOTO PARK 3 W 79
FLORIDA CITY 1 ESE 78
FORT LAUDERDALE 2 W 78
NORTH PERRY AIRPORT 78
SANIBEL 4 ENE 78
SUNRISE 2 E 78
CLEARWATER 4 WNW 77
PARKLAND 2 W 77
WEST MIAMI 2 SE 77
BARTOW 10 SSW 75
DAVIE 2 NE 75
DELRAY BEACH 3 WSW 75
SAINT AUGUSTINE 1 NW 75
LITTLE HAITI 2 SE 74
BUNNELL 72
COUNTRY WALK 1 N 72
HOLIDAY 4 SW 70
INDIAN LAKE ESTATES 2 S 70
LITTLE HAVANA 1 NNW 68
LAUDERDALE BY THE 2 NW 67
PORT EVERGLADES 1 SSE 66
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETE 4 E 65
SANFORD AIRPORT 65
CORAL SPRINGS 1 W 64
DELAND 63
DANIA BEACH 1 NW 62
ST. AUGUSTINE 6 NNW 62
CROSS CITY AIRPORT 61
HIALEAH GARDENS 1 E 61
POMPANO BEACH 61

...GEORGIA...
FORT PULASKI 70
FORT SCREVEN 70
TYBEE ISLAND 1 NNE 65
HARTSFIELD ATLANTA INTL ARPT 64
MIDDLE GEORGIA REGIONAL ARPT 61
SAVANNAH AIRPORT 60
TALLAPOOSA 4 SSE 59
HABERSHAM COUNTY AP 58
VALDOSTA 2 WNW 58
CLEVELAND 57
LITTLE OCMULGEE STATE PARK 57
DUBLIN 54
PERRY 54
COLUMBUS AIRPORT ASOS 53
VIDALIA 53
ATHENS 3 ESE 52
BANKS CROSSING 51
JASPER 2 SSW 48
TUCKER 2 SE 47
MOODY AFB 44

...NORTH CAROLINA...
HIGHLANDS 2 NNW 56
CASHIERS 1 ESE 51
BOOMER 3 ESE 47
BELMONT 45
CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS INTL ARPT 45

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
PARRIS ISLAND 6 E 76
FOLLY BEACH 72
ISLE OF PALMS 1 ESE 68
SULLIVANS ISLAND 1 E 68
BATTERY POINT 1 NNW 66
BEAUFORT 66
CHARLESTON 2 SSW 66
DANIEL FIELD AIRPORT 58
OCONEE COUNTY REGION 58
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD 55
LANCASTER COUNTY AIRPORT 55

...TENNESSEE...
GATLINBURG 10 S 60
CHATTANOOGA 4 ESE 45


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER TATE

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 12/0900Z 33.0N 85.2W
12HR VT 12/1800Z 34.9N 87.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$

[WeatherGuesser]

So, how will the people of Florida react to the next 'biggest, strongest, most intense record breaking storm of all time'?

[linnie]

I will prepare the same way I did for this, Evacuate if they tell me too and make sure that I have prepared as much as possible. We were in the cone the whole time and thanks to Cuba and the track ending up a little east of us we were spared major damage. But still alot of people without power and for who knows how long. Also all you have to do is see the damages in the islands and the keys and place in the early landfall areas and know that this was a serious storm. I sure hope that my fellow Floridians do the same.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/907395353909108736

[tolakram]

Still some significant wind gusts today.

[pgoss11]

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/907395353909108736

WOW! One second later and it probably would have been a fatality. I heard the driver was shaken but is ok.

[sponger]

Still no power and took some damage. 2004 Frances generator is running like a champ! We really got blasted for an eternity. Far worse than forecasted.

[CrazyC83]

I do think the timing of extratropical transition will move up - I would have it at 1800Z yesterday, 15 hours earlier than advisories. But that doesn't make the storm any less hazardous as a lot of wind and surge damage was still ongoing!

[GBPackMan]

We didn't seem to have the focal point for sustained winds at landfall in Fl that, for instance, you had with Harvey in Texas. Same intensity with landfall of two storms---Irma in keys (slightly weaker at Marco Island) and Harvey at Rockport. But every storm is different. Harvey was going through a quick intensification cycle, had never yet made a landfall, while Irma was an older storm coming off of many hours over Cuba. So there was no scene in Fl like that of Rockport, Tx damage. However, the size and scope of the storm I found very impressive (80-90 mph) over large areas and for many hours after landfall. Still incredible energy with the storm, but it seemed to be more evenly spread and not quite so focused at the central point.

By relative possibilities of what could have been, I would say overall we dodged a bullet with this storm. Yes it was bad, but not as bad as it could have been.

We had the possibility of a Cat 4/5 landfall in metro Miami and a run along the eastern coast. While the winds and rain are typically on the NE side of storms, due to the sheer size this could have been much worse had it turned sooner, avoiding the weakening of the Cuba landfall, and the 2 day earlier turn would have meant less upper level shear and less cooler air sucked in from the western gulf coast trough. This would have been tragic for Miami and the same or worse for most of the rest of the state, as well as the GA and SC coasts.

[bohaiboy]

I know the NHC has the post tropical center 100 ESE of B'Ham, but the rain field appears to moving westward with an elongated center over Jackson. Rain almost encroaching on extreme NE Texas.

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRMA ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL112017
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2017

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRMA IS BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 87W
ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...NNW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...E OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...10 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...42 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 87 WEST.
IRMA CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IRMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-------
RAINFALL...REMNANT BANDS FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRMA ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. LOCALIZED INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RISES ON
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS. CLOSER TO IRMA'S REMNANT CIRCULATION
CENTER...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, EASTERN ARKANSAS, AS WELL AS WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST
OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF IRMA, WHILE
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
EASTERN ALABAMA.

...SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 11
AM EDT

...ALABAMA...
ALBERTVILLE 4.8 WNW 3.60
GUNTERSVILLE 2.2 SW 3.57
EUFAULA MUNI ARPT 3.25
DOUGLAS 6.8 NW 3.22
TALLADEGA 1.6 SSE 3.20
SALEM 3.9 ENE 3.14
DOTHAN RGNL ARPT 2.76
MONTGOMERY 2.15

...FLORIDA...
FT. PIERCE ST. LUCIE CNTY INTL ARP 15.91
OVIEDO 14.76
CHEKIKA 13.83
INLIKITA 7 WNW 13.63
GAINESVILLE 2.4 NW 12.22
MIMS 8.5 W 12.11
NAPLES 11.87
NATIONAL KEY DEER NWR 11.74
OVIEDO 1.6 SE 11.54
CACHE 11.49
STARKE 11.33
WEST MELBOURNE 11.21
JACKSONVILLE 9.6 SE 11.17
FLEMING ISLAND 2.2 S 11.11
SWITZERLAND 4 WSW 11.11
PANTHER WEST 11.08
ORTEGA 1 WNW 11.00
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 3 NW 10.42
FORT MYERS INTL ARPT 10.33
SUMMERFIELD 3 SSE 10.04
OASIS RANGER STATION 9.67
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY ARPT 9.65
FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC ARPT 9.57
ORLANDO/SANFORD ARPT 9.42
OCHOPEE 9.27
OLUSTEE 3 N 9.17
ALACHUA 5 SE 8.61
MILES CITY 8.26
BELLAIR 3 W 8.11
OPA-LOCKA AIRPORT 7.99
ORLANDO EXECUTIVE ARPT 7.68
FORT WHITE 4 SE 7.57
INTERLACHEN 4 NW 6.22
TALLYRAND 2 NNW 6.15
DAYTONA BEACH INTL ARPT 5.86
HOLLYWOOD 3.9 SW 4.68
PALM CITY 3.1 NW 4.58
FLEMING ISLAND 1.7 SE 4.56
MIAMI BEACH 3.95
VERO BEACH 2.5 S 3.25

...GEORGIA...
ST MARYS RIVER NEAR KINGSLAND 5SSE 10.12
NAHUNTA 6 S 9.57
CUMBERLAND SOUND NEAR ST MARYS 5ENE 9.18
HOMELAND 7.99
THALMANN 5 ESE 7.89
BOYS ESTATE 3 S 7.84
FOLKSTON 10 SW 7.80
JESUP 10.0 NNW 6.96
SAVANNAH/HUNTER AAF 6.88
KINGSLAND 3 WSW 6.85
ATKINSON 1 WSW 6.66
RICHMOND HILL 7.0 ESE 6.63
BRUNSWICK, MALCOLM MCKINNON ARPT 6.32
SAPELO ISLAND 1 NW 5.97
RINCON 5.3 NNE 5.00
WAYNESBORO 3.3 SW 4.87
DOUGLASVILLE 3.7 S 4.83
FAYETTEVILLE 1.4 NNW 4.32

...MISSISSIPPI...
ABBEVILLE 8.2 SE 1.21
BATESVILLE 2.2 SSE 1.17
NEW ALBANY 5.3 SSE 1.15

...NORTH CAROLINA...
FAIRVIEW 3.8 ENE 5.61
SWANNANOA 0.4 NNE 5.39
BURNSVILLE 1.5 WNW 5.28
ST. JAMES 1.9 W 5.26
HENDERSONVILLE 9.6 ENE 4.70

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
CHARLESTON 5.0 WNW 8.65
SUMMERVILLE 1.9 N 7.25
MONCKS CORNER 3.2 NE 7.13
DANIEL ISLAND 1.0 SE 7.11
CANADYS 0.4 NW 7.00
CHARLESTON NWS WFO 6.18
EDISTO ISLAND 2 WNW 6.05
BLACKVILLE 2 W 6.01
BEAUFORT MCAS 5.88
SANTEE 5 NNE 5.74
FOLLY FIELD 1 SW 5.67
CHARLESTON INTL ARPT 5.53
EASTOVER 6 SW 4.97
NEW ELLENTON 4 S 4.81
EDGEFIELD 4.12
SUMTER 4.11
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT 3.14

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...ALABAMA...
TROY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 45
WEEDON FIELD AIRPORT 43
ANNISTON ARPT ASOS 40
MONTGOMERY REGIONAL AIRPORT 40

...FLORIDA...
NAPLES 2 ENE 142
MARCO ISLAND 1 E 130
LELY 2 ESE 122
BIG PINE KEY 2 NNW 120
QUAIL CREEK ESTATES 2 SSW 112
NORTH PERRY AIRPO 2 WNW 109
KEY BISCAYNE 8 SSE 99
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL 1 W 99
NORTH PERRY AIRPO 3 WSW 98
SWEETWATER 2 NE 96
CAPE CANAVERAL 3 NNE 94
OCEAN REEF 8 SE 93
BELLE MEADE 1 S 92
KEY LARGO 8 SSE 92
OCHOPEE 1 W 92
CACHE AT EVERGLADES 91
KEY WEST 2 W 91
ROYAL PALM RANGER S 4 W 91
CORAL GABLES 1 ESE 90
OCEAN REEF 8 SSE 89
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTL ARPT 89
MAYPORT NAVAL STATION 87
PORT EVERGLADES 87
DEERFIELD BEACH 3 W 86
JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 86
KEY LARGO 1 SE 85
REDLAND 8 NNW 85
FORT MYERS FAA/AP 84
SUNRISE 1 W 84
FLAGLER BEACH 83
GOULDS 1 NE 83
HOMESTEAD PARK 1 WSW 83
OAKLAND PARK 3 NW 83
PINECREST 2 SSW 82
FIU SOUTH CAMPUS 81
HAULOVER CANAL 3 E 81
POMPANO BEACH AIR 1 ESE 81
RSW SOUTHWEST FLORIDA A 81
IMMOKALEE 2 ESE 80
SOUTH MIAMI 2 W 80
FISHER ISLAND 3 ESE 79
FIU NORTH CAMPUS 1 ESE 79
FORT DESOTO PARK 3 W 79
FLORIDA CITY 1 ESE 78
FORT LAUDERDALE 2 W 78
NORTH PERRY AIRPORT 78
SANIBEL 4 ENE 78
SUNRISE 2 E 78
CLEARWATER 4 WNW 77
PARKLAND 2 W 77
WEST MIAMI 2 SE 77
BARTOW 10 SSW 75
DAVIE 2 NE 75
DELRAY BEACH 3 WSW 75
SAINT AUGUSTINE 1 NW 75
LITTLE HAITI 2 SE 74
BUNNELL 72
COUNTRY WALK 1 N 72
HOLIDAY 4 SW 70
INDIAN LAKE ESTATES 2 S 70
LITTLE HAVANA 1 NNW 68
LAUDERDALE BY THE 2 NW 67
PORT EVERGLADES 1 SSE 66
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETE 4 E 65
SANFORD AIRPORT 65
CORAL SPRINGS 1 W 64
DELAND 63
DANIA BEACH 1 NW 62
ST. AUGUSTINE 6 NNW 62
CROSS CITY AIRPORT 61
HIALEAH GARDENS 1 E 61
POMPANO BEACH 61

...GEORGIA...
FORT PULASKI 70
FORT SCREVEN 70
TYBEE ISLAND 1 NNE 65
HARTSFIELD ATLANTA INTL ARPT 64
MIDDLE GEORGIA REGIONAL ARPT 61
SAVANNAH AIRPORT 60
TALLAPOOSA 4 SSE 59
HABERSHAM COUNTY AP 58
VALDOSTA 2 WNW 58
CLEVELAND 57
LITTLE OCMULGEE STATE PARK 57
DUBLIN 54
PERRY 54
COLUMBUS AIRPORT ASOS 53
VIDALIA 53
ATHENS 3 ESE 52
BANKS CROSSING 51
JASPER 2 SSW 48
TUCKER 2 SE 47
MOODY AFB 44

...NORTH CAROLINA...
HIGHLANDS 2 NNW 56
CASHIERS 1 ESE 51
BOOMER 3 ESE 47
BELMONT 45
CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS INTL ARPT 45

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
PARRIS ISLAND 6 E 76
FOLLY BEACH 72
ISLE OF PALMS 1 ESE 68
SULLIVANS ISLAND 1 E 68
BATTERY POINT 1 NNW 66
BEAUFORT 66
CHARLESTON 2 SSW 66
DANIEL FIELD AIRPORT 58
OCONEE COUNTY REGION 58
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD 55
LANCASTER COUNTY AIRPORT 55

...TENNESSEE...
GATLINBURG 10 S 60
CHATTANOOGA 4 ESE 45


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER SANTORELLI

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 12/1500Z 34.2N 87W
12HR VT 13/0000Z 35.4N 89W...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W...REMNANT LOW
$$

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/907595245898125313




NOAA Satellites ✔ @NOAASatellites
Watch #Irma dissipate in this 72-hour water vapor imagery from NOAA's GOES satellites! See more loops @ http://goo.gl/eEwncX
9:22 AM - Sep 12, 2017

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.


This is NOT an official BT, but here is how I would set it based on all the data I have seen and analysis of flight data and surface data:

AL112017, IRMA, 66,
20170830, 0000, , TD, 16.1N, 26.6W, 30, 1007,
20170830, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 28.1W, 35, 1006,
20170830, 1200, , TS, 16.3N, 29.8W, 40, 1004,
20170830, 1800, , TS, 16.3N, 30.8W, 50, 1001,
20170831, 0000, , TS, 16.3N, 31.6W, 60, 996,
20170831, 0600, , HU, 16.4N, 32.5W, 70, 991,
20170831, 1200, , HU, 16.7N, 33.4W, 85, 981,
20170831, 1800, , HU, 17.1N, 34.3W, 105, 964,
20170901, 0000, , HU, 17.5N, 35.1W, 100, 968,
20170901, 0600, , HU, 17.9N, 36.1W, 90, 975,
20170901, 1200, , HU, 18.4N, 37.3W, 90, 975,
20170901, 1800, , HU, 18.8N, 38.7W, 100, 965,
20170902, 0000, , HU, 19.1N, 39.7W, 100, 964,
20170902, 0600, , HU, 19.1N, 41.1W, 90, 974,
20170902, 1200, , HU, 18.8N, 42.5W, 95, 968,
20170902, 1800, , HU, 18.7N, 44.1W, 100, 963,
20170903, 0000, , HU, 18.5N, 45.5W, 105, 958,
20170903, 0600, , HU, 18.2N, 46.7W, 110, 955,
20170903, 1200, , HU, 17.9N, 47.9W, 105, 957,
20170903, 1800, , HU, 17.7N, 49.2W, 105, 958,
20170904, 0000, , HU, 17.3N, 50.4W, 100, 960,
20170904, 0600, , HU, 17.0N, 51.4W, 105, 954,
20170904, 1200, , HU, 16.8N, 52.6W, 115, 946,
20170904, 1800, , HU, 16.7N, 53.9W, 120, 943,
20170905, 0000, , HU, 16.7N, 55.1W, 125, 941,
20170905, 0600, , HU, 16.6N, 56.4W, 145, 934,
20170905, 1200, , HU, 16.7N, 57.8W, 155, 928,
20170905, 1800, , HU, 16.9N, 59.2W, 160, 924,
20170906, 0000, , HU, 17.2N, 60.4W, 165, 915, Maximum wind
20170906, 0530, L, HU, 17.6N, 61.8W, 165, 914, Landfall - N end of Barbuda
20170906, 0600, , HU, 17.7N, 61.9W, 165, 914,
20170906, 0945, L, HU, 17.9N, 62.8W, 160, 915, Landfall - St. Barthelemy
20170906, 1030, L, HU, 18.0N, 63.0W, 160, 916, Landfall - Philipsburg, Sint Maarten
20170906, 1200, , HU, 18.1N, 63.3W, 160, 918,
20170906, 1645, L, HU, 18.4N, 64.4W, 160, 917, Landfall - Spanish Town, Virgin Gorda, BVI
20170906, 1715, L, HU, 18.4N, 64.5W, 160, 916, Landfall - Beef Island, Tortola, BVI
20170906, 1800, , HU, 18.5N, 64.7W, 160, 915,
20170906, 2100, P, HU, 18.8N, 65.4W, 160, 912, Minimum pressure
20170907, 0000, , HU, 19.1N, 66.0W, 155, 915,
20170907, 0600, , HU, 19.7N, 66.7W, 150, 920,
20170907, 1200, , HU, 20.1N, 69.0W, 150, 921,
20170907, 1800, , HU, 20.7N, 70.4W, 150, 920,
20170908, 0000, , HU, 21.1N, 71.8W, 145, 918,
20170908, 0530, L, HU, 21.5N, 73.0W, 135, 923, Landfall - Little Inagua, Bahamas
20170908, 0600, , HU, 21.5N, 73.2W, 135, 924,
20170908, 1200, , HU, 21.8N, 74.7W, 135, 926,
20170908, 1800, , HU, 22.0N, 76.0W, 140, 923,
20170909, 0000, , HU, 22.1N, 77.2W, 145, 921,
20170909, 0345, L, HU, 22.2N, 77.9W, 140, 922, Landfall - central Cayo Romano, Cuba
20170909, 0600, , HU, 22.3N, 78.3W, 120, 931,
20170909, 1030, L, HU, 22.6N, 79.1W, 105, 936, Landfall - Las Brujas, Cayo Santa Maria, Cuba
20170909, 1200, , HU, 22.7N, 79.3W, 100, 938,
20170909, 1800, , HU, 23.1N, 80.2W, 100, 937,
20170910, 0000, , HU, 23.4N, 80.9W, 110, 933,
20170910, 0600, , HU, 23.7N, 81.3W, 115, 929,
20170910, 1200, , HU, 24.5N, 81.5W, 110, 928,
20170910, 1300, L, HU, 24.7N, 81.6W, 110, 929, Landfall - Cudjoe Key, Florida
20170910, 1800, , HU, 25.6N, 81.7W, 105, 934,
20170910, 2030, L, HU, 25.9N, 81.7W, 105, 935, Landfall - Cape Romano, Florida
20170911, 0000, , HU, 26.8N, 81.7W, 90, 942,
20170911, 0600, , HU, 28.2N, 82.2W, 75, 962,
20170911, 1200, , TS, 29.6N, 82.7W, 60, 971,
20170911, 1800, , EX, 30.9N, 83.5W, 50, 982,
20170912, 0000, , EX, 31.9N, 84.5W, 40, 987,
20170912, 0600, , EX, 32.5N, 86.0W, 30, 995,
20170912, 1200, , EX, 33.0N, 87.6W, 25, 1002,


A few notes:

* The peak intensity is increased to 165 kt, based on the highest SFMR reading which I believe was 163 just before hitting Barbuda, and a short gap in data.
* The pre-Recon intensities are increased mostly upwards (except during ERC's) due to the first flight finding higher winds than Dvorak suggested.
* The Keys landfall is lowered to 110 kt (based on Recon data) and mainland landfall increased to 105 kt (based on surface obs and poor Recon sampling near landfall due to RFQ onshore).
* Extratropical transition is pushed up 12 hours based on its structure yesterday afternoon.

[EquusStorm]

I also wonder if the Category Four Keys landfall will be kept in the post-season... I know there was some discussion on here about its intensity. Downgrading a landfall intensity in the post-season seems to be pretty common, with Katrina being the example I remember most. I kind of hope they keep it due to the multiple category four landfall record, but accuracy is better than setting records...

[CrazyC83]

I also wonder if the Category Four Keys landfall will be kept in the post-season... I know there was some discussion on here about its intensity. Downgrading a landfall intensity in the post-season seems to be pretty common, with Katrina being the example I remember most. I kind of hope they keep it due to the multiple category four landfall record, but accuracy is better than setting records...

Agreed (and Harvey is definitely staying at cat 4, in fact I'd bump it up to 120 kt), but Irma I think gets decreased at Keys landfall.

[Otown_Wx]

I evacuated to Chattanooga, TN. I will be here for awhile. We are having serious wind gusts. It has rained all day. I am with family on a mountain NE of town. I would be willing to bet that the gusts are greater than 50 mph. It is a bit scary.

Anyone with Orlando news, please let us know.

Here in Orlando to put it bluntly sucks!! No power they say maybe up to 3 weeks!!! Most stores all closed cause no power and the one that are lines go out the doors. Lots of trees damage everywhere and most traffic lights don't work.

[stormreader]

I also wonder if the Category Four Keys landfall will be kept in the post-season... I know there was some discussion on here about its intensity. Downgrading a landfall intensity in the post-season seems to be pretty common, with Katrina being the example I remember most. I kind of hope they keep it due to the multiple category four landfall record, but accuracy is better than setting records...

Accuracy is better. I wouldn't be surprised if they lowered the Keys landfall to Cat 3. The above post by "Crazy" mentions a 110kt wind at the keys, and that would be strong Cat 3. Think that would be more accurate.

[abajan]

And now for a recap:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php
(An animation of Irma's track will load after a few seconds.)