ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Jose looks might impressive this morning... and it seems for now at least the shear has relaxed quite a bit.

Yeah shear has been slowly weakening. that upper high has been creaping closer to JOse..
It is also likely stronger than what they are saying..
you can see a decnt curved band in the deep convection..

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

The satellite presentation of Jose is that of a rather amorphous
blob of deep convection, with only slight evidence of banding
features. The system continues to be sheared by northwesterly flow
associated with an upper-level anticyclone centered just to its
west. A value of 65 kt is retained for the current intensity, in
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. The dynamical models
indicate that the shear over Jose will remain fairly strong for the
next few days with perhaps some relaxation by days 3-5 as an
upper-level high becomes situated over the system. Thus a little
weakening in the short term, followed by some restrengthening later
in the forecast period, is expected. Confidence in this intensity
forecast is, however, lower than usual.

Although the center is difficult to locate, a blend of geostationary
and microwave fixes yield a slow eastward motion of around 090/4 kt.
Jose is currently situated in a region of weak steering currents.
The GFS and ECMWF global models build a mid-level anticyclone to the
west of the tropical cyclone in a day or two. The anticyclone is
then forecast to shift north, and then east, of Jose later in the
forecast period. This evolution of the steering flow should result
in the tropical cyclone moving in a clockwise loop over the next
several days. Aside from the U.K. Met. Office prediction, which is
well south and west of the other track models, the official forecast
is near the left side of the guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 26.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 25.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 25.3N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 28.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Ken711]

NHC shifted their 5 day cone north and east. Looks like they discounted the UKMET runs.

[Patrick99]

Just me or is Jose looking a little better on visible right now? I can see more of an obvious definite circulation than I could pick out yesterday.

[txwatcher91]

NHC shifted their 5 day cone north and east. Looks like they discounted the UKMET runs.

Yep and they did the same thing with Matthew... we saw with Irma how the ridging kept trending stronger and stronger and the way Jose is reorganizing this morning would indicate some strengthening and a further south track would be more likely. If the UKMET is right or close to being right, it will be a HUGE win for it yet again.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at old Microwave images and current satellite it has definately been moving ESE ( or south of due east) for about the last 7 hours..

center fixes are not quite right.. looks lto be somewhere between 27N

[Dean4Storms]

Need to get a Recon out there. Does anyone know if a Recon is scheduled?
Edit: I just saw that none are scheduled.

We've seen 3 TC's last 3 weeks blow up quickly and reach intense deepening so I would not totally rule out Jose organizing quickly. Trends and the trends have been green light for intense hurricanes!

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/907643778072240128

[EquusStorm]

Jose just does NOT want to die... I mean obviously it's supposed to survive and reintensify, but convection and storm structure has maintained itself incredibly well in the face of stifling conditions. Somehow I think it will recover much faster than a lot of guidance suggests once conditions improve.

[txwatcher91]

Maybe it's just my imagination... but it sure seems like Jose is losing a good bit of latitude today whereas most models had him going east, anyone else seeing this?

[wxman57]

A combination of the GFS, CMC, and EC operational runs and ensembles says there is only about a 3% chance of Jose passing within 125 miles of the Outer Banks of NC. I wouldn't bank on the UKMET being correct. Very odd track, so different from every other solution. Most likely, Jose will remain east of the U.S. Besides, I hope to have my first days off in weeks this weekend.

[Tireman4]

A combination of the GFS, CMC, and EC operational runs and ensembles says there is only about a 3% chance of Jose passing within 125 miles of the Outer Banks of NC. I wouldn't bank on the UKMET being correct. Very odd track, so different from every other solution. Most likely, Jose will remain east of the U.S. Besides, I hope to have my first days off in weeks this weekend.

To work on your Winter forecast sir?

[txwatcher91]

A combination of the GFS, CMC, and EC operational runs and ensembles says there is only about a 3% chance of Jose passing within 125 miles of the Outer Banks of NC. I wouldn't bank on the UKMET being correct. Very odd track, so different from every other solution. Most likely, Jose will remain east of the U.S. Besides, I hope to have my first days off in weeks this weekend.

Now we know the UKMET will be correct If the UK scores a coup on this one... well that would be impressive. We will know in the next 48 hours which model is right as the UK takes this pretty far south.

[NJWxHurricane]

A combination of the GFS, CMC, and EC operational runs and ensembles says there is only about a 3% chance of Jose passing within 125 miles of the Outer Banks of NC. I wouldn't bank on the UKMET being correct. Very odd track, so different from every other solution. Most likely, Jose will remain east of the U.S. Besides, I hope to have my first days off in weeks this weekend.

great post

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 guarantees Jose will recurve and not be a threat to Florida or the US.

[AutoPenalti]

Wesh 2 guarantees Jose will recurve and not be a threat to Florida or the US.

Yeah no.

[hohnywx]

Wesh 2 guarantees Jose will recurve and not be a threat to Florida or the US.

Cause they did so well with Irma...can you please stop?

[NJWxHurricane]

Jose will more than likely not effect the US. No reason to fear monger this early.

[RL3AO]

Forecast error for Jose so far from each advisory. I'll try to add model error when I get a chance.

[WeatherGuesser]

Looks like it just wants to wander around in circles for a while.