ATL: JOSE - Models

[weathaguyry]

0z has a decent shift W compared to the 18z, with the NHC track now on the Eastern Edge of the guidance

[wxman57]

Here's the model verification for Jose. UK is best at 120hrs, but still off by about 210 miles. I don't know about the east coast trof vanishing in the next day or two.

[Aric Dunn]

Here's the model verification for Jose. UK is best at 120hrs, but still off by about 210 miles. I don't know about the east coast trof vanishing in the next day or two.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... 7/maeI.png

That is the intensity

[plasticup]

Any insight into why there is such a massive discrepancy?

Yeah. He speculated on the last page that it's initialized farther SE than the NHC and some of the other models.

The thing i just noticed is the ukmet intialized it further ese from the nhc 11am position. Which is where i pegged the center earlier. It has been moving ese for at least 8 hours

Also just 2 posts ip..

Oops, thanks.

[Kingarabian]

Has there ever been an occurrence where the UKMET differed completely from the GFS+Euro for this long of a period of time? I can't recall any...

[txwatcher91]

Has there ever been an occurrence where the UKMET differed completely from the GFS+Euro for this long of a period of time? I can't recall any...

Hurricane Matthew last year was one I remember very well. The Euro kept trending east towards Bermuda and well out to sea and the UK kept inching west closer to Florida. Similar to what we’ve seen today with the disparity growing. The UK ended up being right and the Euro caved to it big time.

[jlauderdal]

...so did the GFS...

"Upgrade."

An upgrade is still an upgrade my friend, the difference is how it's executed.

an upgrade doesnt automatically mean better performance either, countless computer programs have been upgraded over the years only to have users downgrade due to performance issues...

[Kingarabian]

Has there ever been an occurrence where the UKMET differed completely from the GFS+Euro for this long of a period of time? I can't recall any...

Hurricane Matthew last year was one I remember very well. The Euro kept trending east towards Bermuda and well out to sea and the UK kept inching west closer to Florida. Similar to what we’ve seen today with the disparity growing. The UK ended up being right and the Euro caved to it big time.

But the difference between the UK and the Euro in regards to Matthew wasn't that large as in this case...

[ColdMiser123]

Clear southward bias on the UKMET tracks compared to the Euro tracks.

[Aric Dunn]

probelm is the fixes have been off the last 12 hours.. ... and its even more clear now that the UKMET is doing better..

[ColdMiser123]

Clear southward bias on the UKMET tracks compared to the Euro tracks.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... 17/tr3.png

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... 17/tr4.png

probelm is the fixes have been off the last 12 hours.. ... and its even more clear now that the UKMET is doing better..

The current SE movement is not inconsistent with the Euro forecasts yet.

[jlauderdal]

Clear southward bias on the UKMET tracks compared to the Euro tracks.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... 17/tr3.png

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... 17/tr4.png

problem is the fixes have been off the last 12 hours.. ... and its even more clear now that the UKMET is doing better..

like alyono said, we will know in a couple of days and if this ukmet verifies than some people on tv have some major explaining to do

[txwatcher91]

Has there ever been an occurrence where the UKMET differed completely from the GFS+Euro for this long of a period of time? I can't recall any...

Hurricane Matthew last year was one I remember very well. The Euro kept trending east towards Bermuda and well out to sea and the UK kept inching west closer to Florida. Similar to what we’ve seen today with the disparity growing. The UK ended up being right and the Euro caved to it big time.

But the difference between the UK and the Euro in regards to Matthew wasn't that large as in this case...

It was pretty close. The Euro at one point had Matthew going NE after Haiti and heading right for Bermuda. The UK had it bending NW and right along the FL coast. That’s about the same two we have right now... the Euro goes near Bermuda and UK to Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Clear southward bias on the UKMET tracks compared to the Euro tracks.

[img]http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al122017/tr3.png[/mg]

[img]http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al122017/tr4.png[/mg]

probelm is the fixes have been off the last 12 hours.. ... and its even more clear now that the UKMET is doing better..

The current SE movement is not inconsistent with the Euro forecasts yet.

neither is the UKMET>

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

There was quite a few of the ens members with a hit on the last ens run i could find.

[ColdMiser123]

probelm is the fixes have been off the last 12 hours.. ... and its even more clear now that the UKMET is doing better..

The current SE movement is not inconsistent with the Euro forecasts yet.

neither is the UKMET>

It is currently performing the worst compared to other models with recent short term trends. Here is the GFS for comparison.

[wxman57]

Here's the model verification for Jose. UK is best at 120hrs, but still off by about 210 miles. I don't know about the east coast trof vanishing in the next day or two.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... 7/maeI.png

That is the intensity

Fixed the link.

[Aric Dunn]

again the current sab postions are very off at this point compared to current analysis..

[ColdMiser123]

neither is the UKMET>

It is currently performing the worst compared to other models with recent short term trends. Here is the GFS for comparison.

The 18z run was a bit too far south compared to observations, and even that was offshore.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... 17/tr1.png

again the current sab postions are very off at this point compared to current analysis..

I disagree. Unlikely the current observed estimates are off significantly enough to change the conclusions reached above.

[Kingarabian]

It is currently performing the worst compared to other models with recent short term trends. Here is the GFS for comparison.

The 18z run was a bit too far south compared to observations, and even that was offshore.

[img]http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al122017/tr1.png[img]

again the current sab postions are very off at this point compared to current analysis..

I disagree. Unlikely the current observed estimates are off significantly enough to change the conclusions reached above.

They're off completely. Go on and compare with microwave.