ATL: JOSE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

It is currently performing the worst compared to other models with recent short term trends. Here is the GFS for comparison.

The 18z run was a bit too far south compared to observations, and even that was offshore.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... 17/tr1.png

again the current sab postions are very off at this point compared to current analysis..

I disagree. Unlikely the current observed estimates are off significantly enough to change the conclusions reached above.

current rough position...

[ColdMiser123]

again the current sab postions are very off at this point compared to current analysis..

I disagree. Unlikely the current observed estimates are off significantly enough to change the conclusions reached above.

They're off completely. Go on and compare with microwave.

SAB has both Dvorak and microwave fixes.

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the EC, GFS, and even the Canadian ensembles. Of the 50 EC ensembles only 2 take Jose into the U.S. (one is similar to the UKMET). None of the other 48 members takes Jose within 200nm of the U.S, and most are over 300nm offshore. Of the GFS' 20 members, only 1 takes Jose to about 150nm of the Outer Banks, the others are over 300nm offshore. About 2-3 of the Canadian ensembles are into the East Coast, most are well out to sea.

Hard to believe that the UK is right and all the others are so wrong. I'd sure like to have some time off of work this weekend (where I'm NOT cutting out sheetrock and pulling out soggy insulation at a coworker's house).

[weathaguyry]

I think that an east coast runner would seem like a possible scenario if models shift west, I don't think it's either into Florida or out to sea, if you look at some of the UK ensembles, it looks like it tries to show somewhat of an Irene track. Just a 10000% opinion though.

[Ken711]

I think that an east coast runner would seem like a possible scenario if models shift west, I don't think it's either into Florida or out to sea, if you look at some of the UK ensembles, it looks like it tries to show somewhat of an Irene track. Just a 10000% opinion though.

I agree, I will surprised if the Euro and GFS don't shift west in their next few runs.

[RL3AO]

Over the short term, the ECMWF has been doing the best job recently.



Through 3 days, the GFS was doing great but the last few runs that verified have been poorer.

[txwatcher91]

Interesting that with Jose the UK has verified the best in the long range.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/907755974559236098

[RL3AO]

Interesting that with Jose the UK has verified the best in the long range.
t]

Very small sample size. The 9/5 12z model tracks aren't available for the UKMET or Euro either.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS trend @ 12 hours:

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS steering trend @ 24 hours:

[txwatcher91]

Interesting that with Jose the UK has verified the best in the long range.
t]

Very small sample size. The 9/5 12z model tracks aren't available for the UKMET or Euro either.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/93hw16I.png[/img

Even though it’s a small sample size it’s still of significance that the UK has been performing better. It’s always interesting when there is a big Euro vs UK battle... I expect a middle ground solution to be closest to reality.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 36:

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 42 Trend. More high pressure on this run to the NW:

[Kingarabian]

No Florida on this GFS run it looks like. Recurving at hour 84.

[Aric Dunn]

No Florida on this GFS run it looks like. Recurving at hour 84.

That is a pretty decent shift though ..

[txwatcher91]

No Florida on this GFS run it looks like. Recurving at hour 84.

A decent jump west again though, another 100 miles west on this run now. I would be shocked if the Euro doesn’t make a decent jump west tonight.

[Alyono]

weaker but more west...

it is the GFS though. I was one of the WORST models for Irma, verified incredibly poorly

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

12 /12 ens

[Aric Dunn]

gfs members should be interesting..

[jabman98]

weaker but more west...

it is the GFS though. I was one of the WORST models for Irma, verified incredibly poorly

Wasn't it the GFS that called the eastward shift for landfall(s) on Sat night/Sun for Irma?