ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The NHC is east of all the models, it's going to have to be shifted west on the next advisory

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017

Jose continues to be affected by 20-25 kt of northerly vertical
shear, and a recent GMI overpass shows that the low-level center is
at the northern edge of the convective mass. While the current
organization is that of a system of less than hurricane strength,
the various satellite intensity estimates remain near 65 kt. Thus,
Jose remains a hurricane for this advisory.

The GMI overpass shows that Jose is moving southeastward or 135/7.
A large deep-layer trough to the northeast of the cyclone is
responsible for this motion. However, this trough will soon leave
Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to its northwest,
north, and eventually northeast. This evolution should cause Jose
to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 3 days and then turn
northward and northeastward once it moves around the western side of
the ridge. The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement
for this advisory, as the UKMET has shifted eastward from its
Florida landfall forecast and now shows a northward motion along
75W by 120 h. However, there still remains a significant spread
between that model on the left and the ECMWF on the right, which
has Jose closer to 67W by that time. The new forecast track is
similar to the previous track through 72 h, and then it is nudged
just a little to the west of the previous track. The 72-120 h
portion of the forecast track lies west of the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and ECMWF, but lies to the east of the other
consensus models.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. First,
the large-scale models forecast the current shear is likely to
persist for at least the next 24 h, followed by some decrease at
about 36-48 h. However, none of the intensity guidance shows
weakening during the first 24 h or much strengthening at 36-48 h.
Second, the cyclone is likely to cross its path, and possibly a wake
of colder sea surface temperatures, between 48-72 h. Third, Jose
should encounter stronger shear after 72 h, but it may interact with
a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States that may
give the system a kick through baroclinic processes. Indeed, the
GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF agree on showing a falling central pressure
from 72-120 h. Based on the overall trend of the guidance, the
intensity forecast is tweaked a little from the previous advisory to
show little change in strength through 48 h and slight weakening
thereafter. However, this is a low-confidence forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 26.1N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 25.4N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 25.0N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 25.3N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 28.0N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 33.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Nimbus]

Jose is still moving southeast, I like the easterly movement the south not so much.
Apparently the thinking is that a ridge will pass north of Jose fairly quickly so as not to steer him all the way to the coast of Florida or the Carolinas.
If Jose gets a little further south there may be a delay for the trough that is to lift him out so its a difficult forecast.
UKMET shifted east and they were the western outlier so I guess that was good news.

[SouthDadeFish]

You could see from the overnight 0446Z GMI pass that Jose's center was still poleward of 26N. Since the storm is so sheared now, the surface center is almost exposed and you don't really need microwave to see where the center is, although there has been a large convective burst near the center in recent frames.

[forecasterjack]

Still favoring an OTS track for Jose, but IF it were to come west, here's how it would happen:
Talim recurves a little stronger than forecast due to a sooner turn N/NE limiting land interaction with China

As a result, more latent heat transported into the NPAC jet, resulting in more amplification than forecast.

Talim is recurving much farther west than Sanvu. As a result, the whole developing RWT shifts west. Ridge that was over the west coast is over the EPAC

With a strong trough over the western US (snow in the Rockies!)

This then amps up the blocking high developing N of Jose, which would allow the storm to come west. That assumes that the ECMWF has correctly modeled an entire hemisphere's worth of RWT interactions. Slim chance, but is it impossible? No. Far from it.

[wxman57]

I'm still thinking only a slight chance of an East Coast impact (not Florida). Maybe 5-10% at most. Higher chances of a Newfoundland impact as it transitions to ET.

[GCANE]

GFS is forecasting the anti-cyclone to get over Jose in about 48 hrs

[txwatcher91]

GFS is forecasting the anti-cyclone to get over Jose in about 48 hrs

If that does happen then I could see some quick intensification here. Jose has maintained very well despite 20-30kts of shear. Most systems wouldn't maintain this well under shear like that but Jose is fighting it off like a champ. A stronger storm also might go a bit further west too... Interesting times ahead.

[txwatcher91]

Judging by recent visibles, it appears the new convective burst has pulled the LLC to the SSE a little bit so it isn't quite as exposed.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017

Jose continues to be affected by strong northwesterly shear
associated with an upper-level anticyclone centered to its west.
Although the hurricane tried to develop some banding features
yesterday, the system has again transformed into a rather
shapeless mass of intense convection. The current intensity
estimate is held at 65 kt in agreement with Dvorak Current
Intensities from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast continues
to be of low confidence. Dynamical models indicate that strong
shear, from varying directions, will persist over Jose for the next
several days. Also, the tropical cyclone will likely be passing
over its own cold wake in a couple of days. These factors argue
against strengthening, so the official forecast shows no change
followed by slight weakening later in the period. This is on the
high side of the intensity model guidance.

Jose has been moving slowly southeastward, or 140/6 kt, between a
mid-level anticyclone to its west and a trough to the northeast.
The global models show a high pressure area building to the east-
northeast of Jose in a couple of days, which should eventually
induce a poleward motion. The track models show a looping motion
during the next 48 hours followed by a turn toward the north, as
does the official forecast. The latest NHC track is similar to the
previous one and lies between the ECMWF solution and the other
models, which are farther west. This keeps Jose away from land
areas for at least the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 25.5N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 25.2N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 25.1N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 25.5N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 26.4N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 31.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 34.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[NDG]

I'm done with hurricanes this year! It took me 12 hrs to clean up my yard yesterday, including the shingles that landed on my yard from my neighbor's roof. I am starting to think that a small weak vortex touched down on my neighborhood, some of the roof damage 1/2 a block from my house resembles 90-100 mph winds.
I yet have to fix my fence, I guess that will be another 10-12 hours today.

Jose stay away from FL!!!! Yesterday's UKMET's track was just dead wrong which created a lot of anxiety to FL when the track started floating around the web.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear definately nearly exposed the center before this burst..

the US is still not out of the woods.

[txwatcher91]

Shear definately nearly exposed the center before this burst..

the US is still not out of the woods.

CIMSS is showing 15-20kts of mid-level shear affecting Jose too now... that could cause significant problems for Jose as mid-level shear usually seems much more detrimental to a TC. He's also now under 25-30kts of deep-layer shear... Not sure how much more he can take.

[Aric Dunn]

REcent microwave... it's approaching 25 north in the next few hours.. which is the southern extent of the guidance including the UKMET if it keeps moving past 25 n too much those earlier runs of the UKMET might need to watched for again.

[SouthDadeFish]

Huge convective burst on the SE side of the center.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/907983018417168385

[txwatcher91]

Huge convective burst on the SE side of the center.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/907983018417168385

Interesting, thanks for sharing this. I have a question I'm hoping you or someone else can hopefully answer. CIMSS shear analysis is showing 15-20kts of Mid-level shear and 25-30kts of deep layer shear. Is the shear not as strong as analyzed? I've seen many TC's under this type of shear and they're usually a naked swirl once shear exceeds 25kts, especially in the presence of mid-level shear.

[tiger_deF]

Huge convective burst on the SE side of the center.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/907983018417168385

Interesting, thanks for sharing this. I have a question I'm hoping you or someone else can hopefully answer. CIMSS shear analysis is showing 15-20kts of Mid-level shear and 25-30kts of deep layer shear. Is the shear not as strong as analyzed? I've seen many TC's under this type of shear and they're usually a naked swirl once shear exceeds 25kts, especially in the presence of mid-level shear.

Maybe because it was an established cat 4/5 c yclone before it was affected? This isn't some weak tropical storm that sputtered into the eastern caribbean, this was a powerful cyclone with an established structure.

['CaneFreak]

If you look at WV imagery, it looks like a massive tsunami wave is fixing to eat Jose and spit him back out. Oh wait, that's a ridge. Never mind. Carry on.

[Fountainguy97]

Ok I have a question.

So it looks like the big question mark that will determine Jose's trajectory is its strength at the time of its ejection out of its stalled (drifting) position.

So when we look at steering currents does a storm have to be as strong and deep as Irma was for upper steering currents to impact it? Because Jose is not deep (low pressure high winds) but honestly it challenges Irma for its cold cloud tops (I'm translating that too height). So if Jose maintains its current deep covvection would it be steered by the same steering level that Irma was??

If all that is the case then tonight is the key. If Jose maintains these very cold tops and IF that translates to upper pattern steering we will see Jose be pushed west tomorrow as the ridge surges.

Would love for some input on this. I'm probably way off on some point lol

['CaneFreak]

Just to post some observations this afternoon. It looks like it is still getting sheared from the north this afternoon which is why the center keeps reforming to the south. This is going to really make for an interesting forecast over the next several days. I look forward to seeing how the models adjust to the new timing of the turn from the south/southeast to the west/northwest. That is definitely a key to the forecast. I don't think any of the models had it this far south other than the UKMET. Interesting days ahead.