ATL: JOSE - Models

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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#421 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:11 am

Alyono wrote:HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2017 0 25.6N 65.7W 975 68
0000UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 65.6W 968 72
1200UTC 14.09.2017 24 24.8N 66.6W 969 74
0000UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.3N 68.2W 969 76
1200UTC 15.09.2017 48 26.0N 70.3W 969 77
0000UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.0N 72.0W 967 73
1200UTC 16.09.2017 72 27.9N 73.3W 959 82
0000UTC 17.09.2017 84 28.6N 73.8W 955 81
1200UTC 17.09.2017 96 29.6N 73.9W 947 82
0000UTC 18.09.2017 108 31.1N 73.8W 940 80
1200UTC 18.09.2017 120 32.2N 74.1W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 132 33.2N 74.1W 943 68
1200UTC 19.09.2017 144 34.7N 74.0W 948 68


Is this the UKMET run?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#422 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:18 am

txwatcher91 wrote:
Alyono wrote:HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2017 0 25.6N 65.7W 975 68
0000UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 65.6W 968 72
1200UTC 14.09.2017 24 24.8N 66.6W 969 74
0000UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.3N 68.2W 969 76
1200UTC 15.09.2017 48 26.0N 70.3W 969 77
0000UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.0N 72.0W 967 73
1200UTC 16.09.2017 72 27.9N 73.3W 959 82
0000UTC 17.09.2017 84 28.6N 73.8W 955 81
1200UTC 17.09.2017 96 29.6N 73.9W 947 82
0000UTC 18.09.2017 108 31.1N 73.8W 940 80
1200UTC 18.09.2017 120 32.2N 74.1W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 132 33.2N 74.1W 943 68
1200UTC 19.09.2017 144 34.7N 74.0W 948 68


Is this the UKMET run?


Yep. 12z UKMET shows Jose being about 60 miles east of Cape Hatteras at the end of the run.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#423 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:27 am

12z GFS looks like it shifted east.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#424 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:14 pm

12Z GFS
108 hrs out
500mb Heights

Going to be watching next few runs if the blue circled area closes off.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#425 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:36 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
Alyono wrote:HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2017 0 25.6N 65.7W 975 68
0000UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 65.6W 968 72
1200UTC 14.09.2017 24 24.8N 66.6W 969 74
0000UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.3N 68.2W 969 76
1200UTC 15.09.2017 48 26.0N 70.3W 969 77
0000UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.0N 72.0W 967 73
1200UTC 16.09.2017 72 27.9N 73.3W 959 82
0000UTC 17.09.2017 84 28.6N 73.8W 955 81
1200UTC 17.09.2017 96 29.6N 73.9W 947 82
0000UTC 18.09.2017 108 31.1N 73.8W 940 80
1200UTC 18.09.2017 120 32.2N 74.1W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 132 33.2N 74.1W 943 68
1200UTC 19.09.2017 144 34.7N 74.0W 948 68


Is this the UKMET run?


Yep. 12z UKMET shows Jose being about 60 miles east of Cape Hatteras at the end of the run.


Moving just about due north too, could be like an Irene track
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#426 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:15 pm

Euro seems to be coming in VERY slowly today for some reason on Tidbits website. It has it nearly stationary for the next 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#427 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:22 pm

Updated model errors. The slow motion of Jose is keeping most of the data points within the cone.

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#428 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:25 pm

Stronger ridge and farther south at 24hrs. On the Euro 12z
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#429 Postby Fishing » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:37 pm

https://twitter.com/wxgarrett/status/908032959734788104
Euro is delayed according to wxgarrett.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#430 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:51 pm

Euro at 54 hrs, 27.9N/70.4W. Seems to be heading north.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#431 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:01 pm

EC is slightly west at 72 hours
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#432 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:14 pm

Euro is significantly west at hour 96 vs prior runs. I'd say at least 100-150 miles on the rough maps I have. It's actually pretty close to what the TVCN shows best I can tell.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#433 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:20 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:Euro is significantly west at hour 96 vs prior runs. I'd say at least 100-150 miles on the rough maps I have. It's actually pretty close to what the TVCN shows best I can tell.


I'm measuring about 100nm (115 miles) west of 00Z at 102hrs, but still 300 miles east of the Outer Banks.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#434 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:22 pm

near Long Island at day 7, but rapidly weakening
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#435 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Euro is significantly west at hour 96 vs prior runs. I'd say at least 100-150 miles on the rough maps I have. It's actually pretty close to what the TVCN shows best I can tell.


I'm measuring about 100nm (115 miles) west of 00Z at 102hrs, but still 300 miles east of the Outer Banks.


Thanks! Always hard to tell with 24 hour panels lol. Looks like by 168 it is swinging NW towards the Jersey coastline... compared with 12z yesterday where this was heading quickly OTS several hundred miles to the east. It's also much stronger with a 965mb storm at hours 120 and 144 whereas the 12z run yesterday had a 995-1001mb storm.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#436 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:27 pm

Alyono wrote:near Long Island at day 7, but rapidly weakening

Is it still tropical? The 500mb looked funky but it is hard to tell what is going on with the TT maps
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#437 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:29 pm

Even though it's not as strong near Long Island, it's not that weak either (maybe a high grade TS?) that would cause some very bad tidal flooding, as with the onshore wind, the tides would come in and wouldn't be able to drain very well
Last edited by weathaguyry on Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#438 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:29 pm

Something approaching the islands as well.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#439 Postby Happy Pelican » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:46 pm

Not really digging the funky turn the Euro has Jose doing at the end of the afternoon run sending him back into tri-state area but not really concerned yet either. Plenty of time.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#440 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:58 pm

A big bump NW from 0z on the EPS. Looks like there will be many more hits, but majority still offshore.
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