Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands (is invest 96L)

[CyclonicFury]

New tropical wave introduced into the TWD near 10N 19W. This seems to be the wave that the Euro develops into a tropical storm in about 4-5 days near the Lesser Antilles. The 12z GFS also appeared to take it into the Caribbean as a weak low. This is definitely one to watch, it will need to be monitored as it could take a similar track to Irma (although it should be much weaker if it develops). Expecting a mention from NHC soon.

[Alyono]

I'd give this a 50 percent chance of development over the next 7 days

[Alyono]

Disturbance may be southwest of the Cape Verde Islands based upon the tpw rotation

[cycloneye]

Yes,that is where it is.Fixed the title.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS going with Caribbean development:

[N2FSU]

Is this what the Euro starts developing in 72hrs and tracks to just NE of PR in 10 days?

[CyclonicFury]

8PM TWO 10/30%
A tropical wave located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next
several days while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

[Dean4Storms]

Is this what the Euro starts developing in 72hrs and tracks to just NE of PR in 10 days?

Has to be, appears the GFS is a bit faster, imagine that?

[N2FSU]

[N2FSU]

[N2FSU]

[N2FSU]

[gatorcane]

Floater loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[SEASON_CANCELED]

looks like crap imo

[BYG Jacob]

looks like crap imo

Its still just a tropical wave, it isn't gonna look pretty.

Last few frames on satellite makes this look like its wrapping convection around it. Looks to be organizing pretty quickly.

[CyclonicFury]

This will likely take several days to organize. Don't really think it has much of a chance to become Lee until it's west of 50W.

[cycloneye]

For me it looks good.

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.0N 48.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2017 72 12.2N 50.2W 1007 33
1200UTC 17.09.2017 84 12.7N 53.4W 1003 39
0000UTC 18.09.2017 96 13.2N 55.3W 999 42
1200UTC 18.09.2017 108 13.5N 57.2W 994 48
0000UTC 19.09.2017 120 13.6N 58.6W 988 60
1200UTC 19.09.2017 132 14.1N 60.0W 981 68
0000UTC 20.09.2017 144 15.0N 61.8W 981 65

ukmet send a hurricane through the islands, south of where Irma hit though

[N2FSU]

Up to 40%