ATL: JOSE - Models

[ColdMiser123]

Looks like the number of US hits has increased to about ~10 on the EPS.

[xironman]

Well the NAVGEM is agreeing with the Euro so maybe it just had a bad run.

[Happy Pelican]

Wasn't King Euro the first to sniff out Sandy's path and all the other models pointed fingers and laughed at the king, thinking he was nuts. So yeah.

[clipper35]

Don't worry, models will shift way east again overnight,18z gfs will no doubt shift east on the evening run. Windshield wiper effect is going to continue until there is real data input to models,that should begin as soon as Friday.

[Aric Dunn]

Don't worry, models will shift way east again overnight,18z gfs will no doubt shift east on the evening run. Windshield wiper effect is going to continue until there is real data input to models,that should begin as soon as Friday.

unfortunately the models have sifted as far east as they will go unless jose speeds up. the longer JOse moves slowly or longer to the or wsw the more time that short wave lifts and that ridge build that the models are showing pushing it back to new england. so expect westerly shifts if jose keeps this up.

[clipper35]

Don't worry, models will shift way east again overnight,18z gfs will no doubt shift east on the evening run. Windshield wiper effect is going to continue until there is real data input to models,that should begin as soon as Friday.

unfortunately the models have sifted as far east as they will go unless jose speeds up. the longer JOse moves slowly or longer to the or wsw the more time that short wave lifts and that ridge build that the models are showing pushing it back to new england. so expect westerly shifts if jose keeps this up.

Aric do you think it will be strong tropical storm or extra tropical hybrid storm if it reaches the northeast states.

[RL3AO]

real data input to models,that should begin as soon as Friday.

This isn't 1995. The real data is already in the models. A few extra dropsondes and balloons aren't going to change that.

[Aric Dunn]

Don't worry, models will shift way east again overnight,18z gfs will no doubt shift east on the evening run. Windshield wiper effect is going to continue until there is real data input to models,that should begin as soon as Friday.

unfortunately the models have sifted as far east as they will go unless jose speeds up. the longer JOse moves slowly or longer to the or wsw the more time that short wave lifts and that ridge build that the models are showing pushing it back to new england. so expect westerly shifts if jose keeps this up.

Aric do you think it will be strong tropical storm or extra tropical hybrid storm if it reaches the northeast states.

have no idea at this point..

[clipper35]

real data input to models,that should begin as soon as Friday.

This isn't 1995. The real data is already in the models. A few extra dropsondes and ballons don't change that.

Has the noaa gulfstream data been in there yet to sample the upper air data, if it has that I did not know it had been in there already.

[RL3AO]

real data input to models,that should begin as soon as Friday.

This isn't 1995. The real data is already in the models. A few extra dropsondes and ballons don't change that.

Has the noaa gulfstream data been in there yet to sample the upper air data, if it has that I did not know it had been in there already.

No and it doesn't appear to have any scheduled. I'm just saying I don't think it makes much of a difference.

[Kingarabian]

I don't know if at different locations models tend to do better and don't need G-IV data. But from my experience in tracking storms in the Pacific, G-IV/Synoptic data proved to be particularly invaluable. From 2014-2016 the Euro and the GFS modeled out a lot of incorrect Hawaii landfalls since they had trouble resolving the STR and troughs moving across to the CPac. Only until recon and the G-IV planes went out did the Euro and the GFS correct their forecasts.

[OntarioEggplant]

12Z EPS Control has the most bizarre track I've ever seen. Loops José South of New England, then takes it SW into VA/NC. Remnants keep moving SW and end up in the central Gulf Coast by the end of the period.

[Aric Dunn]

This isn't 1995. The real data is already in the models. A few extra dropsondes and ballons don't change that.

Has the noaa gulfstream data been in there yet to sample the upper air data, if it has that I did not know it had been in there already.

No and it doesn't appear to have any scheduled. I'm just saying I don't think it makes much of a difference.

So your saying with such a complex setup and the models are all over the place that extra data offshore ( where we have little to nothing) to help with the strength of the ridge and exiting trough would not help ?

[clipper35]

Exactly Eric that's what I was thinking, you would think that a storm in that position and a steering pattern way screwed up they would like some good upper air data, maybe they think that this storm will not be so organized and no threat to land, I would think that when that storm hits the warm gulfstream waters it's going to intensify, I don't by that 70mph intensity Monday am I think they are underestimating this storm, it was already supposed to be a 65 mph tropical storm according to nhc yesterday and it still holding at 75mph.

[ColdMiser123]

Almost all of the stronger 18z GEFS members are inland. Intensity looks like it will drive the future track for this storm.

[ColdMiser123]

Overwhelming majority of the members that recurve on the 18z GEFS are weak.

[Aric Dunn]

Had better start turning soon...

['CaneFreak]

Man good grief. Look how many of those ensemble members weaken this to a 1000-1010 mb storm very soon like within the next 24 hours. Really? Seriously? The shear is not strengthening. Its remaining the same if not decreasing. Wow.

Upper level shear tendencies:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

Mid Level Shear:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

Overwhelming majority of the members that recurve on the 18z GEFS are weak.

['CaneFreak]

You can't be serious. Have you seen the recent GEFS members? Most of them are weakening this and it is clearly strengthening. We need recon. It may not be 1995 but our models have coding in them that you would think would be from that era. We are WAY behind in NWP. Every bit of data we can get is crucial to this forecast right now. The strength of this system and environmental conditions are crucial. Satellite interpolated data is not going to cut it.

This isn't 1995. The real data is already in the models. A few extra dropsondes and ballons don't change that.

Has the noaa gulfstream data been in there yet to sample the upper air data, if it has that I did not know it had been in there already.

No and it doesn't appear to have any scheduled. I'm just saying I don't think it makes much of a difference.

[Alyono]

0Z GFS much stronger and west