WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

JMA forecasts Doksuri to become a Typhoon as it heads generally WNW towards Hainan island...

(I actually like this name )... The name Doksuri, which means "eagle", has been submitted by the Republic of Korea...

[mrbagyo]

track looks qute similar to Haiphong 1881

Btw, Doksuri is putting an impressive convective show.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (DOKSURI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121333 89 GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A DEEP CONVECTIVE AREA WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND THE NORTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 21W IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK OF
65 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND
AND START A WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
C. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, TS 21W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORHTHERN
VIETNAM, SOUTH OF HANOI. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST ASIA WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM, CAUSING
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL GENERAL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Forecasts are shifting south of Hainan, If thats the case, Doksuri's storm surge potential in Gulf of Tonkin will dramatically increase - Vietnam's northern shores along the gulf are mostly flat. Gulf of Tonkin's SST is also concerning @ 30 to 32 °C

[doomhaMwx]

4 dead, 6 missing in floods, landslides

MANILA (Updated) -- Tropical Depression "Maring" dumped heavy rain in several areas in Luzon on Tuesday, September 12, flooding Metro Manila and nearby provinces, and causing landslides and flash floods that killed at least four people. Six others were missing, including five residents of Laguna province, where floods swept away a house next to a swollen river, disaster relief officials said. The other missing person was reported in nearby Cavite province, where several areas were submerged.

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/manila/local- ... des-563707

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (DOKSURI)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM WEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 FROM RJTD AND PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
IS DRIFTING OVER VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). TS 21W IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. BY
TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE GULF OF TONKIN AND POISED TO MAKE
LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW
FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF THAILAND BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Very aggressive from HWRF. Strengthens Doksuri into a Cat 4.

[mrbagyo]

Just made a radar loop again (using smartphone hehe )
DOKSURI's outer rainband is now affecting the Paracel islands.

[doomhaMwx]

There is an area of very warm waters just off the coasts of Hainan and Northern/Central Vietnam... It appears that this area is also where the HWRF model still aggressively intensifies Doksuri into a very strong Typhoon...

[mrbagyo]

yeah, HWRF really loves Doksuri - much more than #Talim.


When was the last time Vietnam got hit by a legit cat 4?

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (DOKSURI)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 131800Z
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION OF 131311Z ASCAT PASS AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
(30-31 CELSIUS). TS 21W IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND WILL
PASS SOUTH OF HAINAN ISLAND BEFORE EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN VIETNAM. THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD KEEPING THE FORECAST TRACK WESTERLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
INCLUDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
INTENSIFICATION OF TS 21W. BY TAU 24 TS 21W WILL BE LOCATED OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 31 CELSIUS. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS WILL PRODUCE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. DOKSURI
WILL THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND FORWARD SPEED AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Ragged eye structure on radar

Visible

[euro6208]

21W DOKSURI 170914 0000 16.2N 112.2E WPAC 65 982

Now a typhoon.

PGTW and KNES at 4.0

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (DOKSURI)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 21W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WRAP INTO A NASCENT EYE
FEATURE. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE AVAILABLE WAS FROM 131904Z,
WHICH SHOWED A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 89 GHZ BAND. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY, AND NEAR THE MULTI-AGENCY FIX LOCATIONS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND
KNES. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-15 KNOTS), ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 CELSIUS. TY 21W
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AS WELL A STR EXTENSION
WHICH IS BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND WILL
PASS SOUTH OF HAINAN ISLAND BEFORE EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN VIETNAM. THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD, KEEPING THE FORECAST TRACK WESTERLY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS INCLUDING STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VWS, WILL ALL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF TY 21W. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 12
TY 21W WILL BE LOCATED OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 31
CELSIUS, PROVIDING A SOURCE OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. TY 20W IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, THEREAFTER RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
FORWARD SPEED AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 140316

A. TYPHOON 21W (DOIKSURI)

B. 14/0250Z

C. 16.39N

D. 111.64E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.4
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT YIELD 4.5. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/2247Z 15.78N 112.58E SSMS


LOWE

[mrbagyo]

This microwave image is quite old already.
Pretty sure the eyewall is about to close now.
IMO, Doksuri could easily ramp up to cat3 +

[euro6208]

It's bombing out right before landfall...

[doomhaMwx]

Composite satellite image showing Talim over the East China Sea and Doksuri over the South China Sea today(Sept 14), captured by NASA's AQUA/TERRA satellite/s...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DOKSURI)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 21W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 140546Z ATMS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 21W HAS STEADILY
INTENSIFIED WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AROUND
TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TY 20W WILL DISSIPATE STEADILY AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND THE
CURRENT JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Doksuri went over the Paracel Islands. Any obs from that area? can't find any.