ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

I agree. I know I commented that I thought it was moving west earlier but I am pretty sure now that it is just expanding outflow due to the lessening shear.

COnvection still firing in nearly the same location along that eastern eyewall.. if anything that band has slid a little farther south.. the convection expanding west is just that expanding becasue just off to the west the shear drops of a lot so the upper outflow has expanded into that area..

50 images..
IR channel 4

pretty easy to see.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html


very close to the center of the upper ridge

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

[Aric Dunn]

yeah very recent microwave.. little to no movement. definitely no west movememt.. if anything stationary or just drifting south...



though slightly tilted. still pretty organized given the shear.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Recent WV loops have Jose moving NW. What happened to Jose?!

[Bizzles]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 140837
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Earlier this morning, Jose began to take on a sheared appearance in
conventional and microwave imagery, though the outflow has since
been restored. A 0356 UTC GPM overpass showed that the mid-level
center was displaced to the south of the low-level center.
Objective and subjective Final-T numbers have fallen, and on that
basis, the initial intensity has been decreased slightly to 65 kt.

I expect little change in strength through the forecast period.
Moderate shear should prevent significant intensification for the
next couple of days, and could cause Jose to weaken to a Tropical
Storm. After that time, Jose may begin transitioning to a more
baroclinicly-driven cyclone. In fact, the GFS shows Jose with some
extratropical characteristics by day 5. The dynamical models all
indicate that Jose could regain some strength during this period, so
the new NHC forecast reflects that.

The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 270/ 3 kt.
Although the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed,
there has been a large shift to the west in the guidance since the
last forecast. A mid-level ridge, now forecast to be a little
stronger than previously expected, should cause Jose to turn
toward the northwest, and eventually the north. Since the
guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west
of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run
consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time.

Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 25.1N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 68.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 35.0N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[GCANE]

En-training more TPW from the Carib

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone closing in on Jose.
GFS still on track to be over Jose in 24 hrs.

[GCANE]

Looks like some improvement on the core.

[GCANE]

Layered cirrus with overshooting top.
Nice improvement.

[Ken711]

A couple more west shifts this is aiming for the outer banks.

[weathaguyry]

A couple more west shifts this is aiming for the outer banks.

Not only the outer banks, but the NE too

[Ken711]

A couple more west shifts this is aiming for the outer banks.

Not only the outer banks, but the NE too

All the tracks seems to be at least paralleling the east cost. What synoptic features are keeping it off shore?

[weathaguyry]

A couple more west shifts this is aiming for the outer banks.

Not only the outer banks, but the NE too

All the tracks seems to be at least paralleling the east cost. What synoptic features are keeping it off shore?

I guess it would be the ridge weakening, and it timing it right to make a sharp turn OTS, but with the models trending west I don't see why the confidence is so high for an OTS track

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Jose is looking like it's taking my "opinion" track days earlier. But now i am amending it with a "special addition" (since models are now predicting move to the south after becoming extratropical): after landfalling on NYC, it quickly shoots OTS brushing southern New England (probably also inside New England) before turning south when located in south of Newfoundland. After continuing to track south, Jose once again becomes tropical below 31° N and intensifies again to hurricane by the end of the September. After this point Jose could make an Isabel/Sandy (if it goes into the west) or San Ciriaco/ Bonnie '92 (if it goes to the east). Anyways, Jose would become the longest living cyclone regardless of the track. José is insane.
Update: Hah José.... you're now a TS per BT but you never ceased to amaze me....

[Alyono]

likely downgraded at 15Z based upon the SHIPS initialization

[drezee]

likely downgraded at 15Z based upon the SHIPS initialization

Microwave has center near 24.4N...still S of W movement

[txwatcher91]

likely downgraded at 15Z based upon the SHIPS initialization

Microwave has center near 24.4N...still S of W movement

I have no idea why the NHC has this around 25N either. I've tried looking through microwave data and there is nothing to suggest from 37 and 85ghz bands that the center is as far north as they have it. Everything I've seen indicates 24.4N-24.8N on some older scans at 37ghz. ADT numbers still indicate a 70kt storm on the CIMSS page too.

[Ken711]

I don't understand how the NHC seems to be so behind the intensity in their 5 day track. The models are showing a Cat 3 if not 4, and NHC has the max winds at 75 mph.

[Alyono]

I don't understand how the NHC seems to be so behind the intensity in their 5 day track. The models are showing a Cat 3 if not 4, and NHC has the max winds at 75 mph.

because LGEM says so

[Alyono]

likely downgraded at 15Z based upon the SHIPS initialization

Microwave has center near 24.4N...still S of W movement

that's likely the MLC. The MLC is not aligned with the LLC

[txwatcher91]

I don't understand how the NHC seems to be so behind the intensity in their 5 day track. The models are showing a Cat 3 if not 4, and NHC has the max winds at 75 mph.

I'm not sure, I know Alonyo mentioned they love the LGEM model for intensity and it isn't quite as strong... but now most guidance has this under much better UL conditions the next few days as the upper anticyclone builds over it allowing for intensification. Perhaps they're worn out from tracking Harvey and Irma? I'm not sure, usually they're on top of things but they seem to really be lagging with Jose.