ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Western of two newly declared invests.

96L INVEST 170914 1200 8.5N 33.0W ATL 20 1012

[Extratropical94]

This was the original thread at Talking Tropics:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119207

[Extratropical94]

A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[SoupBone]

My concern for the Gulf Coast is how low latitude this thing is. Damn.

[abajan]

My concern for the Gulf Coast is how low latitude this thing is. Damn.

And mine is for how low latitude it is for the Antilles, especially the northeastern islands.

[SoupBone]

My concern for the Gulf Coast is how low latitude this thing is. Damn.

And mine is for how low latitude it is for the Antilles, especially the northeastern islands.

No doubt. These low runners are an area of concern for sure.

[gatorcane]

Unlike Irma at this longitude, this is a situation where weaker means more west. Looking at the state of this invest today, wouldn't be surprised if models shift more west over the coming runs.

[SoupBone]

For Texas and Louisiana, this is right at the start of when they start seeing a sign of at least a slow switch to Fall. Timing, as always, will be key. Any modeling on fronts for the next several weeks?

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[bohaiboy]

For Texas and Louisiana, this is right at the start of when they start seeing a sign of at least a slow switch to Fall. Timing, as always, will be key. Any modeling on fronts for the next several weeks?

10 day forecast for Houston area little to no rain and highs in low 90's and mid 70's at night. No front in sight based on local KPRC weather.

[Prof]

Newbie here. Is the amount of activity we are having typical or is this above average?

[SoupBone]

For Texas and Louisiana, this is right at the start of when they start seeing a sign of at least a slow switch to Fall. Timing, as always, will be key. Any modeling on fronts for the next several weeks?

10 day forecast for Houston area little to no rain and highs in low 90's and mid 70's at night. No front in sight based on local KPRC weather.

Don't necessarily need a front, but even just some form of high pressure parked over the region.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Newbie here. Is the amount of activity we are having typical or is this above average?

Very active season so far. 9 more storms and we are well into hyperactive activity.

[hcane27]

I believe 97L or whatever it becomes sucks the life right out of 96L ...

[stormzilla]

My concern for the Gulf Coast is how low latitude this thing is. Damn.

Concern for us here in Trinidad..to close for comfort.

[Patrick99]

It's September...has to be watched.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Invest 96L could well be Maria. 97L is likely to be Lee.

[RT23]

GFS 18z run looks bad for Barbados and the islands

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:


A tropical wave located about 850 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression will likely form early next week while it moves
westward at about 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[gatorcane]

Deep convection on the increase