ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:


A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3
days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[jlauderdal]

8 AM TWO:


A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3
days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

cycloneye, how did you fare in irma?...i know you were offline for a few days.

[Agua]

Deep convection on the increase

Looks like a mess.

[Weatherboy1]

Here in Jupiter, things have largely returned to normal. Lost a tree in front of the house, lost power for a day or so, etc. But all in all, made out okay with no home or property damage. Unfortunately, many others (especially on the west coast and in the Caribbean) fared much worse from Irma. Here's hoping that 96 doesn't bother us/them as well. Way too early to tell from the modeling so far, so will just keep a semi-watchful eye at trends over the next few days.

[srainhoutx]

Careful in misjudging this large area of disturbed weather at such a low latitude. Typically with such large disturbances it takes longer to consolidate and the Deterministic Global Guidance will struggle until we have an actual low level circulation identified. A general track to the West will continue until such time that we see that low level circulation organize. It is also noteworthy that the Ensembles suggest a monsoonal trough/gyre developing in about 10 days or so across the Western Atlantic Basin and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific.

[gatorcane]

Certainly looking more formidable looking at the wide loop:

[otowntiger]

Careful in misjudging this large area of disturbed weather at such a low latitude. Typically with such large disturbances it takes longer to consolidate and the Deterministic Global Guidance will struggle until we have an actual low level circulation identified. A general track to the West will continue until such time that we see that low level circulation organize. It is also noteworthy that the Ensembles suggest a monsoonal trough/gyre developing in about 10 days or so across the Western Atlantic Basin and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific.

Could you enlighten us what the ramifications are of that monsoonal trough/gyre you reference occurring in the EPAC? Thanks!

[Blown Away]

I will never make fun of the MDR being a dead zone ever again...

[marionstorm]

Hope this storm stays away from Florida. We cannot survive another Duke Energy exacerbated disaster. Power will be out indefinitely and I'll have to become a subsistence farmer.

[SoupBone]

I will never make fun of the MDR being a dead zone ever again...

I believe the term I read a few times from different posters was "MDR Wasteland".

[psyclone]

This one looks to cause mischief for someone. Low latitude and ridging pattern over the eastern US as we head for latter September.

[Blown Away]

Joe B calling for a Cat 2 off the Florida coast after moving through the islands as a TS/Cat1...

[gatorcane]

Well JB's cone was pretty spot on for IRMA when she was a good 8-9 days out. Then again his cone his huge in the long-range like 1000 miles wide.

I can see this storm ending up further west than models show in the long-range.

[Blown Away]

Well JB's cone was pretty spot on for IRMA when she was a good 8-9 days out. Then again his cone his huge in the long-range like 1000 miles wide.

I can see this storm ending up further west than models show in the long-range.

Yeah, he seems to error farther W, Caribbean/GOM, then a recurve... It will be hard to miss that cone...

[gatorcane]

Looks like it has good spin already. I see possible "LLC" 11N 43W thought this may be mid-level:

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/908746830879629312



Tropical storm or #hurricane watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday http://hurricanes.gov #96L

[gatorcane]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands have become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over
the weekend. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, and interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Gustywind]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands have become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over
the weekend. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, and interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

"Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, " not sound very good. Wait and see:eek: folks again again... we have to monitor closely the situation of us who live in the Leewards as most of the Windwards too. Something to keep a very close eye on . Let's wait and see what could happens.

[Blown Away]

"Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, " not sound very good. Wait and see:eek: folks again again... we have to monitor closely the situation of us who live in the Leewards as most of the Windwards too. Something to keep a very close eye on . Let's wait and see what could happens.

Looks like 96L is heading your way Gusty then targeting PR...

[terstorm1012]

Well this escalated quickly.