ATL: MARIA - Models

[toad strangler]

Heading right for NC / Outer Banks at the 10 day pole.

[toad strangler]

NC landfall just SW of Cape Hatteras

[Ken711]

[toad strangler]

If you are keeping GFS windshield wiper scores this is the 2nd LF into SC / NC

[Blown Away]

HP again trapping 96L and forcing W through islands and into CONUS...

[Ken711]

HP again trapping 96L and forcing W through islands and into CONUS...

Hope 96L slows enough for the HP to breakdown.

[sma10]

Huge error margin on this one over 10 days, I think, meaning all of islands/bahamas/EC needs to watch 96L. I'm also thinking that Jose's eventual track may have a lot to do with 96L's future motion north of the islands.

[BobHarlem]

Love the storm out of nowhere 2 days after that that hits N of Tampa.

[AutoPenalti]

If there is any sort of trend 10 days out with the GFS... it's SW from 06z...

[gatorcane]

12Z GEFS still has Puerto Rico in the cross-hairs:

[AxaltaRacing24]

Love the storm out of nowhere 2 days after that that hits N of Tampa.

I noticed that too. It basically sends Nate on a Hermine (2016) like track straight into the big bend area as a cat 1.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/908746830879629312



Tropical storm or #hurricane watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday http://hurricanes.gov #96L

[TheStormExpert]

Did the 12z UKMET run today?

[bamajammer4eva]

Did the 12z UKMET run today?

Doesn't show up on sfwmd but found this

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al962017/

[FLpanhandle91]

12z Euro has an opening OTS or up to New England with Jose remnants weakening the ridge.

[RL3AO]

Did the 12z UKMET run today?

Doesn't show up on sfwmd but found this

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al962017/

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Uj8xC11.png[/]

I think that's just the interpolated run from 0Z. I don't see the 12Z track data in the file.

[gatorcane]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.2N 49.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2017 24 12.2N 49.6W 1009 29
0000UTC 17.09.2017 36 13.0N 53.2W 1005 34
1200UTC 17.09.2017 48 13.5N 55.3W 1002 40
0000UTC 18.09.2017 60 14.3N 56.7W 997 48
1200UTC 18.09.2017 72 14.8N 58.1W 991 53
0000UTC 19.09.2017 84 15.3N 59.3W 984 61
1200UTC 19.09.2017 96 16.2N 60.8W 978 64
0000UTC 20.09.2017 108 17.2N 62.4W 974 67
1200UTC 20.09.2017 120 18.3N 64.0W 973 66
0000UTC 21.09.2017 132 19.0N 65.2W 964 72
1200UTC 21.09.2017 144 19.8N 65.9W 950 80

[BobHarlem]

Euro is interesting, it basically has 96l moving in on Jose and knocking Jose into Cape Cod with 96L ending the run just east of the Carolinas. That seems pretty nuts to me.

[gatorcane]

I am a bit skeptical of the Euro's solution which shows Jose doing a loop off the NE United States coast. No other global model shows this scenario. If it doesn't loop Jose back, there would be more ridging over the Western Atlantic. The GFS doesn't show the loop but not sure why it doesn't build in more ridging in the wake of Jose when 500MB heights are rather high over the Great Lakes and SE Canada region though the GFS builds enough ridging to drive the system into the Carolinas. It seems to leave some kind of trough behind near the Bahamas or east of. Then there is possible land interaction with the Greater Antilles that could cause significant fluctuations in intensity. The forecast beyond 5 days for this invest looks very complicated and uncertain.

[Frank2]

Jose looping might be the key factor - not sure how the models are handling that issue. But, considering Jose has been in the same area for 5 days, no doubt the weakness it has created will help.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Frank2