ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[invest man]

Looks like we have an 80mph hurricane then based on the NW eyewall drop. There might even be stronger winds in the NE quad too.

Would this cause a closer approach to the EC being able to stay moving in a westward motion longer than anticipated because of its strengthen or will that sw flow shield it from the EC? IM

[txwatcher91]

Looks like we have an 80mph hurricane then based on the NW eyewall drop. There might even be stronger winds in the NE quad too.

Would this cause a closer approach to the EC being able to stay moving in a westward motion longer than anticipated because of its strengthen or will that sw flow shield it from the EC? IM

A further west track before turning NW or N would likely bring it closer to the East Coast. It remains to be seen how soon this will turn though.

[xironman]

Looks like we have an 80mph hurricane then based on the NW eyewall drop. There might even be stronger winds in the NE quad too.

Back in the day, Air Force Met told me to take a dropsonde reading with a grain of salt because it is instantaneous as opposed to being averaged out. Though I do agree that the SFMR winds do agree with an upgrade.

[GCANE]

ASCAT 3 hrs ago.
Looks almost due west.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=9435&y=5603&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

VIS LOOP
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=27&lon=-70&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=15&quality=90

[Ken711]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=9435&y=5603&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

VIS LOOP
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=27&lon=-70&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=15&quality=90

Does that match the 11:00 NHC discussion?

A west-northwest to northwest motion is forecast through tomorrow while the storm moves around the southwestern periphery of a west Atlantic ridge.

[Sciencerocks]

If I remember history the last hurricane(65 knts or higher) to form south of 30 and not hit North Carolina(note: landfall of the very center) first to make landfall in New England was Bob of 1991. Before that I think it was Gloria 1985, Belle 1976, 1944 hurricane and 1938 new england hurricane.

we will see.

[terstorm1012]

interesting model runs with Jose I see. Watching closely in C. PA.

[BYG Jacob]

We have a hurricane again

[znel52]

If I remember history the last hurricane(65 knts or higher) to form south of 30 and not hit North Carolina(note: landfall of the very center) first to make landfall in New England was Bob of 1991. Before that I think it was Gloria 1985, Belle 1976, 1944 hurricane and 1938 new england hurricane.

we will see.

Didn't Gloria make landfall in the outer banks? I think it went right over Cape Hatteras. I might not be remembering correctly though.

[Sciencerocks]

If I remember history the last hurricane(65 knts or higher) to form south of 30 and not hit North Carolina(note: landfall of the very center) first to make landfall in New England was Bob of 1991. Before that I think it was Gloria 1985, Belle 1976, 1944 hurricane and 1938 new england hurricane.

we will see.

Didn't Gloria make landfall in the outer banks? I think it went right over Cape Hatteras. I might not be remembering correctly though.

Thank you...So it is quite rare to get a hurricane to hit New england without hitting land first.

[weathaguyry]

It sucks because I'll have to be in school for the storm, but I'll be reporting from the North Shore of Western Long Island, lots of trees in our area, so if winds are 40-50mph there could easily be widespread power outages in our area

[weathaguyry]

If I remember history the last hurricane(65 knts or higher) to form south of 30 and not hit North Carolina(note: landfall of the very center) first to make landfall in New England was Bob of 1991. Before that I think it was Gloria 1985, Belle 1976, 1944 hurricane and 1938 new england hurricane.

we will see.

Didn't Gloria make landfall in the outer banks? I think it went right over Cape Hatteras. I might not be remembering correctly though.

Thank you...So it is quite rare to get a hurricane to hit New england without hitting land first.

It's quite rare for a Hurricane to hit New England in general

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 18:24:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°54'N 70°00'W (26.9N 70.W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,011m (9,879ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)

L. Eye Character (Undecoded): SPIRAL BAND
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)

[GCANE]

[galaxy401]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that Jose has become a
hurricane again, with a blend of the flight-level data and SFMR
values giving an initial intensity of 65 kt. Further strengthening
is possible over the next day or two while the hurricane remains
over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear. By Sunday,
southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, along with a gradual
cooling of the SSTs. These conditions should promote some
weakening of Jose, although all of the guidance are showing a
fairly large hurricane for the next several days. The official
forecast is close to the previous one for the first couple of days,
then is blended downward to the latest model consensus.

Jose continues moving northwestward, now at about 9 kt. The
hurricane should turn north-northwestward tomorrow and northward by
Sunday while it is steered around a western Atlantic ridge. Jose is
then forecast to turn north-northeastward by Wednesday as it moves
along the northwestern side of that ridge. The model guidance is in
relatively good agreement on the forecast track, but the ECMWF is
slower than the rest of the guidance. With the UKMET and its
ensemble speeding up from 6 hours ago, the official forecast is
nudged toward the model consensus at long range, but is still on the
slow side, resulting in little overall change to the previous
forecast. It is still important to note that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

While most of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore for the
next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming
rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North
Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed
for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 27.1N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 28.8N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 31.4N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 36.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 40.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[CrazyC83]

It's basically a watch and wait situation right now. Maybe the Recon data will help out for the 00Z models.

[Blinhart]

Ok, this might of been asked already, but what is the record for the longest living Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin or even all Basins?

From looking at the models there is still not a lot of agreement of the steering current of this system, could this system still be around in 2 weeks?

[xironman]

Ok, this might of been asked already, but what is the record for the longest living Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin or even all Basins?

From looking at the models there is still not a lot of agreement of the steering current of this system, could this system still be around in 2 weeks?

For the Atlantic modern era is Ginger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginger
For those who live in the past the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_ ... _hurricane

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/908794456702439424