ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

Well this escalated quickly.

It did?

[jlauderdal]

Well JB's cone was pretty spot on for IRMA when she was a good 8-9 days out. Then again his cone his huge in the long-range like 1000 miles wide.

I can see this storm ending up further west than models show in the long-range.

Yeah, he seems to error farther W, Caribbean/GOM, then a recurve... It will be hard to miss that cone...

he used to work at accueweather, they were infamous for their cones that were sometimes as much as 1500 miles in width at the end of the forecast period, anyway jb as many others were to far right with irma but he had the general idea, ukmet nailed the stronger ridging with irma but past performance is no guarantee of future results except for the gfs

[Snowman67]

I hope the Islands are spared of further misery. Barbuda arguably the hardest hit by Irma has no more living people on the island. All 1800 were evacuated. Unbelievable.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/wor ... 665950001/

[jlauderdal]

MIA DISCO...this is rather bullish actually


OBVIOUSLY, WE ARE IN THE HEART OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TROPICS AND
WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 said Florida may have to watch Maria next week and Lee looks like it will go out to sea.

[gatorcane]

I am guessing they saw the latest 12Z Euro ensemble run judging by the timestamp of that NWS Miami discussion.

[chris_fit]

:uarrow: I am guessing they saw the latest 12Z Euro ensemble run judging by the timestamp of that NWS Miami discussion.

Can you post them?

[Blown Away]

WPC see's 96L traveling across DR and exiting at day 7... It also looks like Jose heading OTS...

[jlauderdal]

Wesh 2 said Florida may have to watch Maria next week and Lee looks like it will go out to sea.

didnt wesh say irma wasnt going to be a threat to florida..an OTS solution

[AutoPenalti]

Wesh 2 said Florida may have to watch Maria next week and Lee looks like it will go out to sea.

Well, at least this time around he's giving uncertainty...

[bob rulz]

This is looking like it's starting to wrap up to my eyes. Wouldn't be surprised to see this designated at 11pm if that trend continues.

[Nimbus]

The 12Z euro has this coming over the islands as a 1001 mb tropical storm.
The key to the recurve scenario seems to be Jose slowing down enough to leave a weakness for the other two storms following. Nice wishcast but if 96L misses the weakness there may be a ridge that could track her further west into the GOM.

[gatorcane]

looks to be organizing, saved IR loop:

[cycloneye]

That is a great outflow.

[CrazyC83]

Could THIS be Lee and (if it develops) TD14 become Maria?

[northjaxpro]

96L is definitely beginning to get itself together. Conditions appear to look conducive for development. Looks very probable this will be a TD very soon. If the organization trend continues, it will be a TS by the end of this weekend.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/908746830879629312

[EquusStorm]

If it isn't upgraded tonight, the need for watches may necessitate advisories as a PTC regardless. I guess it's a race to see who gets to be Lee; TD14 doesn't have a huge window of time for that.

[jlauderdal]

Could THIS be Lee and (if it develops) TD14 become Maria?

Its a race to lee

[ScottNAtlanta]

Could THIS be Lee and (if it develops) TD14 become Maria?

Its a race to lee

Maria has a more biblical feel than Lee...take that for what its worth...