ATL: MARIA - Models

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow:
I am a bit skeptical of the Euro's solution which shows Jose doing a loop off the NE United States coast. No other global model shows this scenario. If it doesn't loop Jose back, there would be more ridging over the Western Atlantic. The GFS doesn't show the loop but not sure why it doesn't build in more ridging in the wake of Jose when 500MB heights are rather high over the Great Lakes and SE Canada region though the GFS builds enough ridging to drive the system into the Carolinas. It seems to leave some kind of trough behind near the Bahamas or east of. Then there is possible land interaction with the Greater Antilles that could cause significant fluctuations in intensity. The forecast beyond 5 days for this invest looks very complicated and uncertain.

The SST's up there are well below normal as well. I don't see Jose lasting that long north of the VA/NC border.

[gatorcane]

120-240 hour animation of 12Z Euro ensembles. Ensembles start around Puerto Rico area in the animation below. They end up mostly west with most ensembles taking the invest into the Bahamas/Cuba area (albeit some of them weaker due to land interaction) but notice these ensembles generally don't show Jose looping which looks suspect on the operational run:

[Blown Away]

I suspect the weakening was due to land interaction with PR/Hispaniola/Cuba... Ensembles due head in the general direction of Bahamas/Florida after interaction with the big islands...

[Blown Away]

18z

[otowntiger]

18z

. Those all look to re-curve after hitting the LA's and PR.

[gatorcane]

GFS shows more ridging on 18Z so maybe the beginning of a west trend:

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS shows more ridging on 18Z so maybe the beginning of a west trend:

The most similar setup like this was the 18z from yesterday.

[xironman]

The doorway to a NE escape looks closed.

[FLpanhandle91]

Terrible run for Hispaniola. Over 20 hours over the island.

[FLpanhandle91]

This is going to landfall in the US and that seems to be a constant in these GFS runs. The kicker is going to be its interaction would the islands. This storm is much weaker than the 12z run.

[FLpanhandle91]

And the windshield wiper continues
...




That shift is insane. 18z has the ridge weakening significantly as Jose remnants mysteriously hang around and the next trough approaches from the west.

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks as though 96L will have favorable shear to work with until it gets north of the islands. This is evident by its incredible outflow currently.

[GCANE]

[SouthFLTropics]

Sizeable Shift west on the 18z GEFS Ensembles

[jlauderdal]

Sizeable Shift west on the 18z GEFS Ensembles

Just like irma, gfs way to the right then comes back west, lets see what nhc does once they start with discos

[USTropics]

Lesser Antilles needs to pay close attention to this, GFS has a strengthening hurricane moving through the islands in 72 hours. High-resolution 00z GFS run has the northern eyewall hitting Dominica after barely sidestepping Martinique.

[USTropics]

00z GFS run has landfall in Hispaniola (10/11 past GFS runs have had landfall in Hispaniola):

[ColdMiser123]

UK for future Lee/Maria

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.2N 49.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2017 12 12.2N 49.5W 1010 27
0000UTC 17.09.2017 24 13.0N 52.8W 1007 33
1200UTC 17.09.2017 36 13.3N 55.1W 1005 36
0000UTC 18.09.2017 48 13.9N 56.3W 1001 42
1200UTC 18.09.2017 60 14.2N 57.5W 997 46
0000UTC 19.09.2017 72 14.8N 58.6W 990 55
1200UTC 19.09.2017 84 15.6N 59.9W 982 63
0000UTC 20.09.2017 96 16.5N 61.4W 975 67
1200UTC 20.09.2017 108 17.2N 62.9W 973 66
0000UTC 21.09.2017 120 17.7N 64.4W 963 69
1200UTC 21.09.2017 132 18.0N 65.8W 962 74
0000UTC 22.09.2017 144 19.0N 66.8W 947 82

[AutoPenalti]

GFS shifts a bit north, avenue for OTS looks to close.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET plots: