ATL: MARIA - Models

[USTropics]

Here are the actual 00z UKMET plots, slight shift west in the long range with landfall in Puerto Rico this run:

[Ivanhater]

Have a feeling Euro will shift west

[joey]

Have a feeling Euro will shift west

yep may follow the gfs and cmc both west

[Ivanhater]

Have a feeling Euro will shift west

yep may follow the gfs and cmc both west

Pretty strong signal of high pressure off the east coast in a week

[USTropics]

Have a feeling Euro will shift west

yep may follow the gfs and cmc both west

Pretty strong signal of high pressure off the east coast in a week

GFS ensembles have been pretty consistent with the pattern last 4 runs:


We'll see what the 00z ECMWF run has to show, but the 12z ECMWF ensembles would suggest a westward shift as well:

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF through 72 hours, strengthening system heading towards the Lesser Antilles:

[AutoPenalti]

00z ECMWF through 72 hours, strengthening system heading towards the Lesser Antilles:

https://image.ibb.co/bt9Tg5/ecmwf_uv850 ... fh0_72.gif

Directly on top of the Hebert box, ridge starts building in.

[USTropics]

Jose is further east this run and much weaker so at this forecast hour, shouldn't have as much interaction as the 12z ECMWF run (short term track looks very similar so far, will check high-res ECMWF shortly for PR/Hispaniola):

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF does have landfall in Puerto Rico:

[AxaltaRacing24]

No magic door in sight yet.

[AutoPenalti]

No SE Florida hit this run, although it did shift a bit closer to the west.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Slightly north of the GFS but the upper setup looks almost identical

[USTropics]

CMC also in agreement:

[northjaxpro]

Okay now this isn't funny. A Jacksonville area direct landfall potential uh? I saw the 0Z GFS run and this is not funny at all!! I'm not going to get all uptight again and I'm hoping that some type of change will happen with this and I'm going to be interested in seeing the Euro run coming up shortly, but the GFS run definitely is quite disturbing, and what makes the GFS run very scary for me is the fact that not only is it targeting the Jacksonville area for a extremely rare landfall as a major hurricane, but it would happen on my birthday (Sept 25)

I'm just not going to look at that right now. I'm just going to take a look at the next Euro run and other models and see what happens. I am taking this one day at a time, but the ridging being analyzed right along the U.S. East Coast and seaboard on GFS is worrisome . We do not need this obviously in Florida right now after what we just went through Irma. Wow. This is feeling like Groundhog Day.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Okay now this isn't funny Jacksonville area saw this 0Z GFS run and this is not funny at all!! I'm not going to get all uptight again and I'm hoping that some type of change will happen with this and I'm going to be interested in seeing the Euro run coming up shortly, but the GFS run definitely is not funny and what makes the GFS run very very scary for me is the fact that not only is it targeting the Jacksonville area for a extremely rare landfall as a major hurricane,but it's on my birthday (Sept 25)

I'm just not going to look at that right now I'm just going to take a look at the next Euro run and other models and see what happens. I am taking this one day at a time, but the ridging being analyzed right along the U.S. East Coast and seaboard on GFS is worrisome . We do not need this obviously in Florida right now after what we just went through Irma. Wow. This is feeling like Groundhog Day.

This will comfort you for now.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Cliffhanger (stay tuned for 1:45pm EST)

[northjaxpro]

I hope you are right.Heavens sake for all concerned. I pray this next storm somehow stays away. Ridging pattern still worries me for next week though!

[Airboy]

Looks a bit like the Irma model runs at the same position?

Edit: Change my mind, going a bit more west before turning north I see, but the end is a bit similar.

[drezee]

The trend is west and Jose getting out of the way. Jose is the forecast...he determines the ultimate placement and strength of the western edge of the ridge...FL to ME still in play

[northjaxpro]

Well, if Jose starts finally moving north over the next couple of days, that would not bode well indeed. This would allow sufficient height rises at 200 mb and 500 mb along the U. S. Eastern seaboard. This would be a potential ominous scenario for the developing tropical cyclone (soon to be Lee or Maria) approaching from the southeast in the coming days next week.