ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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sweetpea
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#261 Postby sweetpea » Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:11 pm

Geez, my dad in Puerto Rico, just got his power back from Irma. This one will hit his side of the island, he is on the SE side in Aguirre.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#262 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:19 pm

sweetpea wrote:Geez, my dad in Puerto Rico, just got his power back from Irma. This one will hit his side of the island, he is on the SE side in Aguirre.



Hopefully Maria spare us here but we have to be prepared for the worst case scenario and hoping for the best.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#263 Postby sweetpea » Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:
sweetpea wrote:Geez, my dad in Puerto Rico, just got his power back from Irma. This one will hit his side of the island, he is on the SE side in Aguirre.



Hopefully Maria spare us here but we have to be prepared for the worst case scenario and hoping for the best.


Stay safe!! Praying for everyone in the path. This one has me concerned, she is named after my mom. She is hell on wheels. :double:
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#264 Postby jabman98 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:42 pm

Wow. Didn't expect Maria this quickly. It's going to be challenging for some people who were hit by Irma to prepare again for Maria. Not everything is even back up and running yet.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#265 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:00 pm

Well at least it wont be hurricane force winds extending out 100 plus miles like IRMA the high winds "should be" more confined.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#266 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:12 pm

GCANE wrote:With the RI and 37GHz way south of forecast points, I wonder if they scramble recon.

They ought to go in at dawn instead of later in the day.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#267 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:Ouch now NHC is forecasting 120 knots. Hope Leewards and Puerto Rico are preparing.

I'm seeing 120 mph in the Discussion, not knots. 120 knots would be 138 mph! Although, I wouldn't rule out that possibility, given Maria's excellent satellite presentation and favorable conditions ahead.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#268 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:34 pm

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
720 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...
Almost all weather conditions on Tuesday will begin to be
dominated by the approach of then Hurricane Maria. Showers will
begin to increase over the U.S. Virgin Islands, and on the
windward side of Puerto Rico, (northeast, east and southeast).
Currently the confidence is increasing that Hurricane Maria will
pass near to Saint Croix and over Vieques and over the northeast
half of Puerto Rico. Wednesday and Wednesday night. Hurricane
force winds will likely still be over the local waters northwest
of Puerto Rico on Thursday. Bands from Hurricane Maria will pass
over Puerto Rico on Thursday night and Friday with more rain.
Tropical moisture is expected to follow the hurricane over the
following weekend with more heavy rains.

Impacts from the passage of this system will be as serious or more
serious than any system that has passed in the last 15 years if
the track continues as published by the National Hurricane Center.

This would include life threatening winds, flooding and mudslides
and storm surge on the eastern . Danger from falling trees and
powerlines will begin even before the hurricane force winds and
rain.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#269 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:35 pm

I think the NHC will probably up the wind to 55 mph maybe 60.. given the continued trends.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#270 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I think the NHC will probably up the wind to 55 mph maybe 60.. given the continued trends.


I don't think the NHC ever uses 55 mph. Unless you mean knots.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#271 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:44 pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#272 Postby CaribJam » Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:11 pm

Is Maria still missing the forecasted points?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#273 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:57 pm

Hello microwave imagessss.. whhheeerrreee arrreeeee yooouuuuu ?

All we have is this BLurry AMSUB image.. still clearly showing a eyewall underway..

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#274 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:05 pm

Yeah, SSMIS passes have been MIA for some reason.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#275 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:11 pm

Long duration Convective Burst, 2 Hours, of Hot Towers (Yellow Dots) creating the Eyewall around 12N 53W

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#276 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:14 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#277 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:17 pm

Looks like Maria was entered as 40 kt for 00Z in best track, which is strange with SAB and TAFB both at 3.0 (45 kt verbatim).

AL, 15, 2017091700, , BEST, 0, 123N, 531W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 40, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#278 Postby jaxfladude » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:26 pm

After Irma and coming back on Tuesday night(thankfully came to a home intact and with power) after being away since Friday, I may have to watch/prepare for Maria also here in Jacksonville, Florida?

Prayers to those that may/will get Maria.....
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#279 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:30 pm

Core profile about 3 hrs ago

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#280 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:33 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/2345 UTC 12.3N 53.2W T3.0/3.0 MARIA
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