ATL: MARIA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

and it has a 185 mph cat 5 sitting over the US/british VI.. 90 hrs

????? The 18Z HWRF? I'm not seeing this.

That is becasue. I look at the 850mb. of course some will disagree. however during IRMA and many other hurricanes. its more often than not the HWRF and other Dynamical models under estiamte how much mixes down.

During IRMA it was in a few cases 30 mph less than what recon would find. those winds ( especially cat 4 or 5 ) will mix down. So it is worth looking at 850 mb and maybe if you want to do a blend of the 850mb and 10m wind.

I mean how many times has the NHC gone with an instantaneous dropsonde wind over flight level. IRMA is a great example again becasue it is fresh in memory.

[SouthDadeFish]

Aric, that's an interesting hypothesis, but I would say 185 mph seems like a bit of a stretch for now (or at least I hope). The statistical and dynamical guidance are showing a very favorable environment, so a very powerful hurricane is quite possible, unfortunately.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, that's an interesting hypothesis, but I would say 185 mph seems like a bit of a stretch for now (or at least I hope). The statistical and dynamical guidance are showing a very favorable environment, so a very powerful hurricane is quite possible, unfortunately.

Well I agree, It may not be a sound scientific fact ( yet) though not sure it could ever be a fact per se. But rest assured once recon arrives start paying attention to what is mixing down ( especially when it becomes more intense) in the dropsondes vs. the ( typically large ) difference between 850mb and the 10m winds on the HWRF.. but like I said it may be prudent to do a blend for the time being. I suppose I could do an analysis of this apparent discrepancy.....

I will need access or find all the previous data from the HWRF at least.

[Nimbus]

Aric, that's an interesting hypothesis, but I would say 185 mph seems like a bit of a stretch for now (or at least I hope). The statistical and dynamical guidance are showing a very favorable environment, so a very powerful hurricane is quite possible, unfortunately.

Well I agree, It may not be a sound scientific fact ( yet) though not sure it could ever be a fact per se. But rest assured once recon arrives start paying attention to what is mixing down ( especially when it becomes more intense) in the dropsondes vs. the ( typically large ) difference between 850mb and the 10m winds on the HWRF.. but like I said it may be prudent to do a blend for the time being. I suppose I could do an analysis of this apparent discrepancy.....

I will need access or find all the previous data from the HWRF at least.

Those 10m winds the models show might be a little deceiving, during Irma John Cangialosi was on the radio saying he didn't see any hurricane force winds in the Tampa bay area except in gusts. You know that freight train sound a hurricane makes when it blows over a plywood pitched roof? Well a lot of people in the Tampa bay heard that for more than 2 minutes.

[AutoPenalti]

18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.

Is that a east shift from prior ensembles?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, that's an interesting hypothesis, but I would say 185 mph seems like a bit of a stretch for now (or at least I hope). The statistical and dynamical guidance are showing a very favorable environment, so a very powerful hurricane is quite possible, unfortunately.

Well I agree, It may not be a sound scientific fact ( yet) though not sure it could ever be a fact per se. But rest assured once recon arrives start paying attention to what is mixing down ( especially when it becomes more intense) in the dropsondes vs. the ( typically large ) difference between 850mb and the 10m winds on the HWRF.. but like I said it may be prudent to do a blend for the time being. I suppose I could do an analysis of this apparent discrepancy.....

I will need access or find all the previous data from the HWRF at least.

Those 10m winds the models show might be a little deceiving, during Irma John Cangialosi was on the radio saying he didn't see any hurricane force winds in the Tampa bay area except in gusts. You know that freight train sound a hurricane makes when it blows over a plywood pitched roof? Well a lot of people in the Tampa bay heard that for more than 2 minutes.

He didn't see and hurricane force winds in the models except for gusts ? or he didn't experince them ? what you said was a little confusing.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.

Is that a east shift from prior ensembles?

Slight west and north adjustment.

[Ken711]

18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.

Is that a east shift from prior ensembles?

Slight west and north adjustment.

Aiming for the Outer Banks.

[Nimbus]

Well I agree, It may not be a sound scientific fact ( yet) though not sure it could ever be a fact per se. But rest assured once recon arrives start paying attention to what is mixing down ( especially when it becomes more intense) in the dropsondes vs. the ( typically large ) difference between 850mb and the 10m winds on the HWRF.. but like I said it may be prudent to do a blend for the time being. I suppose I could do an analysis of this apparent discrepancy.....

I will need access or find all the previous data from the HWRF at least.

Those 10m winds the models show might be a little deceiving, during Irma John Cangialosi was on the radio saying he didn't see any hurricane force winds in the Tampa bay area except in gusts. You know that freight train sound a hurricane makes when it blows over a plywood pitched roof? Well a lot of people in the Tampa bay heard that for more than 2 minutes.

He didn't see and hurricane force winds in the models except for gusts ? or he didn't experince them ? what you said was a little confusing.

The radio show host was taking callers and one of them wanted to know what kind of wind speeds to expect, many news accounts of 100 MPH winds approaching the Tampa bay area were being circulated. Cangialosi explained that the eyewall winds had spread out and after he checked his *resources* stated that the wind speeds were expected to be high end tropical storm strength.

10 meter winds from Euro and GFS were showing tropical storm force winds for the area.

[Aric Dunn]

Those 10m winds the models show might be a little deceiving, during Irma John Cangialosi was on the radio saying he didn't see any hurricane force winds in the Tampa bay area except in gusts. You know that freight train sound a hurricane makes when it blows over a plywood pitched roof? Well a lot of people in the Tampa bay heard that for more than 2 minutes.

He didn't see and hurricane force winds in the models except for gusts ? or he didn't experince them ? what you said was a little confusing.

The radio show host was taking callers and one of them wanted to know what kind of wind speeds to expect, many news accounts of 100 MPH winds approaching the Tampa bay area were being circulated. Cangialosi explained that the eyewall winds had spread out and after he checked his *resources* stated that the wind speeds were expected to be high end tropical storm strength.

10 meter winds from Euro and GFS were showing tropical storm force winds for the area.

oh ok.. so minimal TS force from the models and high end actually ? I didn't check were there and 100 mpg gust inthe tampa area ?

[otowntiger]

18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.

. Wow- that is very good looking for at least Florida and the southeast. The islands obviously are under the gun unfortunately.

[Ian2401]

Is Maria still missing its forecast points? Saw a post earlier that showed Maria was significantly more South then anticipated.

[Ken711]

18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.

. Wow- that is very good looking for at least Florida and the southeast. The islands obviously are under the gun unfortunately.

Major threat to the mid-atlantic as well.

[Aric Dunn]

Is Maria still missing its forecast points? Saw a post earlier that showed Maria was significantly more South then anticipated.

from the 11am advisory yes.. the updated 5pm looks a little better but too early to say just yet.

[GeneratorPower]

18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.

By all means, the Carolinas can HAVE Maria. But we go down this road every single time. Let the never ending west shifts begin.

[Coaster]

Will the various tracking models indicate any interactions between Tropical Storms Maria and Lee? Is there any possibility that Lee will overtake Maria?

[Voltron]

18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.

. Wow- that is very good looking for at least Florida and the southeast. The islands obviously are under the gun unfortunately.

Yes this looks good, but we are 9-10 days out AND thisnis the GFS which has a far right bias. This is also not taking in account the stronger ridge therefore from and earlier euro it should a complete push into the carolinas. I dont want to be a pesimist but this really is going to be more about FL thru NC to really be on guard for.
Major threat to the mid-atlantic as well.

[AdamFirst]

Irma was a Carolinas threat this far out too...feel like we're doing this dance again with Maria.

[AJC3]

Over the next few days, continue to keep a close eye on the on any trend/continuity the various globals and their ensembles have in the handling of Jose. Up until now, there appears to have been pretty significant run to run disparity on how fast the system lifts out, and how deep/strong the circulation is, with those two variables likely being somewhat related. A faster weakening/spin down and lift out will leave less of a weakness and lessen the chance of Maria making a quicker and more easterly poleward turn.