ATL: MARIA - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Weakness " excape alley " left by Jose there once again should allow for this to to recurve.

This run is trash, has Jose strengthening over water around 68 to 70 degrees which opens a weakness for Maria which will probably not be there or be a weaker weakness which may turn it more NW possibly threatening the SE states from The eastern GOM to North Carolina

[txwatcher91]

Weakness " excape alley " left by Jose there once again should allow for this to to recurve.

This run is trash, has Jose strengthening over water around 68 to 70 degrees which opens a weakness for Maria which will probably not be there or be a weaker weakness which may turn it more NW possibly threatening the SE states from The eastern GOM to North Carolina

It wouldn’t strengthen over the cool waters in the NE like the GFS shows but as it loops back east and south it would be over or near the Gulf Stream... and waters are plenty warm there.

[Alyono]

Canadian may be the only model with a reasonable representation at the moment

UKMET now shoves Jose WEST into NYC (at least it weakens it as it does so)

Canadian actually ejects Jose as in agreement with the ensembles

[shah83]

The real problem is that for the next two, maybe three days, the GFS runs will be trash. Gonna have to rely on GEFS... But we need to have a good idea for planning purposes NOW. If we wait until Jose leaves or dissipates, that leaves maybe three to four days to narrow the cone from a thousand miles to maybe a couple hundred before landfall...

[Alyono]

The real problem is that for the next two, maybe three days, the GFS runs will be trash. Gonna have to rely on GEFS... But we need to have a good idea for planning purposes NOW. If we wait until Jose leaves or dissipates, that leaves maybe three to four days to narrow the cone from a thousand miles to maybe a couple hundred before landfall...

one should be using an ensemble of ensembles. That is the only method to accurately get the uncertainty

[sma10]

Canadian may be the only model with a reasonable representation at the moment

Gotta admit - you don't hear this very often.

[Craters]

not usableafter PR

GFS thinks Jose will somehow intensify after it goes stationary over cool waters. Whole run should be thrown out after 132 hours as it is not physically possible as GFS portrays it to be

Alyono -- I might be oversimplifying things, but that seems to be an exceedingly fundamental, basic, first-principles sort of fly in the ointment. Jose would be over cooler water and it would be at a high latitude, so Coriolis forces would be greater (Does anything stay stationary at that latitude?). Could it have transitioned to being extratropical? How could such a flagrant error propagate itself through the run?

I guess what I'm having trouble grasping is the fact that this kind of thing doesn't involve just a sign error or something simple like that in the GFS calculations -- it has to be a whole mind-numbing chain of solutions to God-only-knows how many differential equations, physical laws, etc. How is something like that possible in what is, in reality, a world-class global model? I just don't get it...

Thanks --

Mark

[Alyono]

not usableafter PR

GFS thinks Jose will somehow intensify after it goes stationary over cool waters. Whole run should be thrown out after 132 hours as it is not physically possible as GFS portrays it to be

Alyono -- I might be oversimplifying things, but that seems to be an exceedingly fundamental, basic, first-principles sort of fly in the ointment. Jose would be over cooler water and it would be at a high latitude, so Coriolis forces would be greater (Does anything stay stationary at that latitude?). Could it have transitioned to being extratropical? How could such a flagrant error propagate itself through the run?

I guess what I'm having trouble grasping is the fact that this kind of thing doesn't involve just a sign error or something simple like that in the GFS calculations -- it has to be a whole mind-numbing chain of solutions to God-only-knows how many differential equations, physical laws, etc. How is something like that possible in what is, in reality, a world-class global model? I just don't get it...

Thanks --

Mark

Jose is not ET in the GFS. The simulated IR shows a well formed hurricane. Very tropical with an eye

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Wow, the models with Maria and Jose are all over the place this evening, more so the latter than the former though. Crazy, crazy stuff I must say. I feel so sorry for the emergency planners who are trying to sort through this info to base their long-range plans upon.

[Aric Dunn]

not usableafter PR

GFS thinks Jose will somehow intensify after it goes stationary over cool waters. Whole run should be thrown out after 132 hours as it is not physically possible as GFS portrays it to be

Alyono -- I might be oversimplifying things, but that seems to be an exceedingly fundamental, basic, first-principles sort of fly in the ointment. Jose would be over cooler water and it would be at a high latitude, so Coriolis forces would be greater (Does anything stay stationary at that latitude?). Could it have transitioned to being extratropical? How could such a flagrant error propagate itself through the run?

I guess what I'm having trouble grasping is the fact that this kind of thing doesn't involve just a sign error or something simple like that in the GFS calculations -- it has to be a whole mind-numbing chain of solutions to God-only-knows how many differential equations, physical laws, etc. How is something like that possible in what is, in reality, a world-class global model? I just don't get it...

Thanks --

Mark

the problem is truncating.. we have yet to solve the many fluid dynamical equations so even one error is compounded...

among such errors intial data etc.. we have along way to go..

[WeatherHoon]

Does it really matter whether Jose is ET/weak or not in regards to how it breaks down the ridge?

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Canadian still hits Florida




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[AxaltaRacing24]

Does it really matter whether Jose is ET/weak or not in regards to how it breaks down the ridge?

Yes

[LarryWx]

Does it really matter whether Jose is ET/weak or not in regards to how it breaks down the ridge?

This. Does it really matter if the GFS has Jose too strong as regards still allowing for a weakness capable of recurving Maria?

[AutoPenalti]

00z Canadian still hits Florida




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Albeit weak unless that's a low resolution?

[Ian2401]

00z Canadian still hits Florida




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Albeit weak unless that's a low resolution?

CMC this season has always had it significantly weaker than it actually was.

[LarryWx]

Does it really matter whether Jose is ET/weak or not in regards to how it breaks down the ridge?

Yes

Why? Please explain why a weaker than GFS progged Jose that lingers wouldn't still have a good chance to lead to a safe recurve offshore the east coast via the weakness it would cause to the north of Maria. I think the key is whether or not Jose lingers rather than his strong he is because that would likely still pull Maria up north into the weakness since there'd no longer be steering winds underneath a high bringing her NW. Now perhaps there'd still be a small risk to E NC and E New England.

[WeatherHoon]

Does it really matter whether Jose is ET/weak or not in regards to how it breaks down the ridge?

Yes

Why? Please explain why a weaker than GFS progged Jose that lingers wouldn't still have a good chance to lead to a safe recurve offshore the east coast via the weakness it would cause to the north of Maria. I think the key is whether or not Jose lingers rather than his strong he is.

There's the answer I was looking for. So if I'm understanding this correctly, A Jose still in the picture (no matter the strength)=more of a chance of a ridge breakdown to allow Maria to turn more North while a Jose leaving the picture quicker would allow the ridge to build back in quicker and force Maria more to the West?

[LarryWx]

Yes

Why? Please explain why a weaker than GFS progged Jose that lingers wouldn't still have a good chance to lead to a safe recurve offshore the east coast via the weakness it would cause to the north of Maria. I think the key is whether or not Jose lingers rather than his strong he is.

There's the answer I was looking for. So if I'm understanding this correctly, A Jose still in the picture (no matter the strength)=more of a chance of a ridge breakdown to allow Maria to turn more North while a Jose leaving the picture quicker would allow the ridge to build back in quicker and force Maria more to the West?

That is pretty much my thinking. To back this up, I have found exactly ZERO
hurricanes since 1851 (yes, I looked at every year today) which came W, WNW, NW, or NNW into the SE US with a TS+ lingering to the north or NE near or within about 500 miles of the east coast of the US. So, I just don't see a hurricane coming into the SE US with another TC above it.

[wxmann_91]

Yes

Why? Please explain why a weaker than GFS progged Jose that lingers wouldn't still have a good chance to lead to a safe recurve offshore the east coast via the weakness it would cause to the north of Maria. I think the key is whether or not Jose lingers rather than his strong he is.

There's the answer I was looking for. So if I'm understanding this correctly, A Jose still in the picture (no matter the strength)=more of a chance of a ridge breakdown to allow Maria to turn more North while a Jose leaving the picture quicker would allow the ridge to build back in quicker and force Maria more to the West?

That's how I feel too to be honest. If anything, a stronger Jose is more likely to be picked up and kicked out in the North Atlantic. Whereas a weaker, shallower system could linger around and reintensify over the Gulf Stream, and steer Maria out.