ATL: MARIA - Models

[northjaxpro]

Yeah no question Jose holds all the cards.

Does Jose hang around long enough to keep the weakness in place to turn Maria away from the SE CONUS late in the period? I wish I could say the whole Eastern U.S. seaboard, but that depends exactly if the weakness would be in place to keep Maria menacing off shore.

Well, it is a question in which we won't know the answer to for quite some time, possibly as late as this upcoming week.

Well, another long, long week ahead monitoring Maria. Prayers again to all of our neighbors in the Caribbean!!

[Voltron]

This solution seems the most reasoable

[banksmanforever]

To my untrained eye it looks like its heading west again

[ScottNAtlanta]

Since it looks like Jose has picked up some speed to the north, any solution with Jose hanging around is less believable

[jlauderdal]

Since it looks like Jose has picked up some speed to the north, any solution with Jose hanging around is less believable

Tbd...both solutions have issues, look at models but really only first 5 days is solid...follow nhc track and expect more westward shifts per their discussion

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS Enthalpy-Flux forecast indicates possible RI just before the islands.
Looks nasty on approach to VI, PR.
Strong Cat 4 into the Bahamas.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... fc&tau=999

[chris_fit]

Here is the 06Z GFS Run - Pretty safely out to see after The Islands, that all can and will change.

[Voltron]

Here is the 06Z GFS Run - Pretty safely out to see after The Islands, that all can and will change.

We all know how bad the GFS is not taking any stock in that model this year

[SFLcane]

Of course it's out to sea Jose weakens the ridge for Maria to recurve subject to change.

[Steve]

06Z HWRF and HMON barely miss Puerto Rico to the north.

HMON 84 Hours @ 945mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

HWRF 93 hours @ 940mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

HWRF smashes the Virgin Islands though with Cat 3/4 type conditions as does the HMON but the HMON is about 1/2 day faster.

[Ian2401]

Huge Southwestern shift at hour 24 for the 12z GFS

[chris_fit]

Huge Southwestern shift at hour 24 for the 12z GFS

Jose also appears to be moving faster through 48hrs - not a good combo I'm thinking for the US

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS: Thanks to Jose, it is still looking good for the SE US on this run barring something very unexpected.

[SFLcane]

After impacts in the islands not seeing much to drive this far enough west past 70-75w for impacts on Southeast. Keep doing what your doing Jose.

[Blown Away]

After impacts in the islands not seeing much to drive this far enough west past 70-75w for impacts on Southeast. Keep doing what your doing Jose.

00z Euro impacts SE, 12z has shifted W, not so sure the SE will be avoided...

[SFLcane]

Yep blown away a westward shift on this 12z haven't we been here before?

[TheStormExpert]

Yet again it looks like the GFS is self-correcting its right bias. Still think Florida (hopefully) isn't the target.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z CMC hits Charleston hard. Oh Uncle!

[perk]

After impacts in the islands not seeing much to drive this far enough west past 70-75w for impacts on Southeast. Keep doing what your doing Jose.

The same thing was said about Irma.

[Steve]

Its track brings Maria into the 920's which is expected coming up parallel to the SE Coast. GFS dives Jose way back south to about the latitude of VA which would erode the ridge. However, if you look at it at the 500mb anomaly perspective, there's no way Maria either doesn't move inland or stall offshore for at least "a while."

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

The WPAC is no help with teleconnections as Talim hits southern Japan and recurves west of Japan. That would argue for a hit on the SE. Also that smoothing NNE movement toward the end from NE should argue for building ridging in the NE US. Problem is, that's a 7-10 day teleconnection. I'm not sure we have 10 days here, so a hit to SC/NC/VA looks to be on the table if nothing else.