ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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TJRE
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#361 Postby TJRE » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:31 am

Last edited by TJRE on Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#362 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:42 am

1900hurricane wrote:Honestly, I feel structure may have taken a step back from where it was 12-15 hours ago.

Image


yep. wouldn't surprise me if this is a 40-45 kt TS right now. This became less organized during the past 12 hours
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#363 Postby psyclone » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:48 am

Maria continues to look large and somewhat sloppy...hopefully this bodes well for peak intensity undershooting current forecasts as it moves toward and through the islands...recognizing that things can change quickly in peak season. I'd be prepping in earnest in the islands but maintaining an optimistic disposition. Rest assured that we are definitely pulling for you guys. When you've been on the board for years...you build up a camaraderie with folks you've never even met. Best of luck to you all.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#364 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:50 am

psyclone wrote:Maria continues to look large and somewhat sloppy...hopefully this bodes well for peak intensity undershooting current forecasts as it moves toward and through the islands...recognizing that things can change quickly in peak season. I'd be prepping in earnest in the islands but maintaining an optimistic disposition. Rest assured that we are definitely pulling for you guys. When you've been on the board for years...you build up a camaraderie with folks you've never even met. Best of luck to you all.


This is what is was SUPPOSED to look like right now. I believe Dvorak was far too aggressive overnight. This never looked any better than a 2.5 or a 3.0 to me. This was never supposed to take off until tomorrow
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#365 Postby psyclone » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:54 am

Alyono wrote:
psyclone wrote:Maria continues to look large and somewhat sloppy...hopefully this bodes well for peak intensity undershooting current forecasts as it moves toward and through the islands...recognizing that things can change quickly in peak season. I'd be prepping in earnest in the islands but maintaining an optimistic disposition. Rest assured that we are definitely pulling for you guys. When you've been on the board for years...you build up a camaraderie with folks you've never even met. Best of luck to you all.


This is what is was SUPPOSED to look like right now. I believe Dvorak was far too aggressive overnight. This never looked any better than a 2.5 or a 3.0 to me. This was never supposed to take off until tomorrow


Are you expecting a big ramp up before island interaction? I'll confess to looking for a little positive spin..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#366 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:54 am

Schools are closed tommorow due to the arrival of Maria in Guadeloupe. Guadeloupe is Under an orange vigilance cyclone.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 449133.php

Guadeloupe: the Rector decided to close the schools Monday

Sunday, September 17, 2017 - 11 h 40


The schools and public and private colleges under contract will be closed tomorrow, Monday in Guadeloupe, until further notice.
A decision "in the light of forecasts available to us so far, and as a precaution", indicates the Rectorate. Indeed, Guadeloupe will spend this Sunday at noon in orange cyclone vigilance following the approach in the Antilles of the Tropical Storm Maria. Maria who should spend closer to us in the second part of the night of Monday to Tuesday in category 2 hurricane (more details to come).
President Camille Galap encourage people "to stay tuned to the media to follow the evolution of the situation."
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#367 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:57 am

psyclone wrote:
Alyono wrote:
psyclone wrote:Maria continues to look large and somewhat sloppy...hopefully this bodes well for peak intensity undershooting current forecasts as it moves toward and through the islands...recognizing that things can change quickly in peak season. I'd be prepping in earnest in the islands but maintaining an optimistic disposition. Rest assured that we are definitely pulling for you guys. When you've been on the board for years...you build up a camaraderie with folks you've never even met. Best of luck to you all.


This is what is was SUPPOSED to look like right now. I believe Dvorak was far too aggressive overnight. This never looked any better than a 2.5 or a 3.0 to me. This was never supposed to take off until tomorrow


Are you expecting a big ramp up before island interaction? I'll confess to looking for a little positive spin..


yes, any rapid intensification was supposed to happen near the islands. Yesterday, I was thinking 40 kts at 20Z, then ramping up to 80-85 kts through the islands. Nothing appears to have changed
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#368 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:59 am

Aric Dunn... what are your latest thoughts related to Maria? Schools are closed, looks like the authorities and our Pro Mets are more than convinced that Maria is moving in our way and continues to be a real threat? Things are becoming a bit worrying given the latest trend.
Thanks.
Gustywind
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#369 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:05 am

I'm located in the southwest of the island. It's been overcast for most of the morning with periodic light drizzle, but for the last 15 minutes or so, it's been raining heavily with gusty winds. Starting to let up now, but it's heavily overcast. Will keep you posted.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#370 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:13 am

Dry air infusion and sparse atmospheric pickin's too soon after Irma...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#371 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:21 am

abajan wrote:I'm located in the southwest of the island. It's been overcast for most of the morning with periodic light drizzle, but for the last 15 minutes or so, it's been raining heavily with gusty winds. Starting to let up now, but it's heavily overcast. Will keep you posted.

Very interresting reports Abajan. Thanks. Continue to keep us informed! :) Great job as usual!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#372 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:24 am

Shes is coming right along.. luckily there was no RI over night could save leeward islands from a cat 4 .. though there is still plenty of time.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#373 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:24 am

Looks like some dry air intrusion into the west side of the storm. That'll like!y mix out over the next 24 hrs as she builds a CDO. Its a temporary pause in development
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#374 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:27 am

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#375 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:28 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Shes is coming right along.. luckily there was no RI over night could save leeward islands from a cat 4 .. though there is still plenty of time.

:eek: :eek: waouw Aric that's insane :( thanks a lot i know that you are honest, cat 4 :eek: hope that Maria will not have to much time for that, i cannot even imagine that in the Leewards. Anyway, we continue to monitor it.
Thanks.
Gustywind :)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#376 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:31 am

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Shes is coming right along.. luckily there was no RI over night could save leeward islands from a cat 4 .. though there is still plenty of time.

:eek: :eek: waouw Aric that's insane :( thanks a lot i know that you are honest, cat 4 :eek: hope that Maria will not have to much time for that, i cannot even imagine that in the Leewards. Anyway, we continue to monitor it.
Thanks.
Gustywind :)

Our Pro Mets in their latest now are focusing on the fact that a cat 3 cane is not out of idea, that means a MAJOR cane again in the area :eek:
Becoming worrying...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#377 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:34 am

Also seems to be having some convection issues. maybe a little dry air..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#378 Postby NotSparta » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:35 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Also seems to be having some convection issues. maybe a little dry air..


Yeah, some dry air got into the west side
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#379 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:36 am

NotSparta wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Also seems to be having some convection issues. maybe a little dry air..


Yeah, some dry air got into the west side


yep just woke up and read the discussion. :)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#380 Postby bob rulz » Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:39 am

Wow the circulation of this is HUGE.
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