ATL: MARIA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

The 12Z CMC hits Charleston hard. Oh Uncle!

That's an east shift from yesterday where it had a hit in Miami.

[Voltron]

After impacts in the islands not seeing much to drive this far enough west past 70-75w for impacts on Southeast. Keep doing what your doing Jose.

00z Euro impacts SE, 12z has shifted W, not so sure the SE will be avoided...

Agreed. Not sure what others are talking about with saying SE is going to be missed.

[TheStormExpert]

12z UKMET shifts east. (Blue line)

[LarryWx]

After impacts in the islands not seeing much to drive this far enough west past 70-75w for impacts on Southeast. Keep doing what your doing Jose.

00z Euro impacts SE, 12z has shifted W, not so sure the SE will be avoided...

Agreed. Not sure what others are talking about with saying SE is going to be missed.

On this GFS run. It is still way too early to say if Maria won't landfall in the SE US. Jose lingering and not dieing is imho still our best hope for that. Keep hope alive for that realistic possibility.

[boca]

I think Maria will curve east of us in Florida but still too early due to Jose causing a weakness and ridging not strong enough to keep it WNW but rather NW towards the Carolinas northward.This is just an opinion.

[Voltron]

00z Euro impacts SE, 12z has shifted W, not so sure the SE will be avoided...

Agreed. Not sure what others are talking about with saying SE is going to be missed.

On this GFS run.

Oh GFS, I am not sure we should be counting that based on low ridge output and major right bias

[Blown Away]

Yep blown away a westward shift on this 12z haven't we been here before?

How many hours out was GFS showing the NE landfalls for Irma?

[Voltron]

500mb ECMWF has a direct hit thru Wilmington NC then thru Raleigh north. Much more reliable then GFS.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yep blown away a westward shift on this 12z haven't we been here before?

How many hours out was GFS showing the NE landfalls for Irma?

Until 5/6 days out

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET shifts east.

Yes, indeed, the 12Z Ukmet shifted east to a pretty nonthreatening position with regard to the SE US (24N, 70W), which is well east of the 12Z GFS, 12Z CMC, and the 0Z Euro. Encouraging sign since that is one of the two best models for the tropics.

[jlauderdal]

Yep blown away a westward shift on this 12z haven't we been here before?

How many hours out was GFS showing the NE landfalls for Irma?

The gfs ensembles were showing fl and nc consistently...the operational was too far right which is why nhc determined gfs was wrong and stayed left until the very end..maybe gfs will.be correct with the idea but buyer beware

[jlauderdal]

12z UKMET shifts east.

Yes, indeed, the 12Z Ukmet shifted east to a pretty nonthreatening position with regard to the SE US (24N, 70W), which is well east of the 12Z GFS, 12Z CMC, and the 0Z Euro. Encouraging sign since that is one of the two best models for the tropics.

Ukmet was good with irma but you need to qualify that statement about it being one of the two best..what time period then go back and look at verification

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET shifts east.

Yes, indeed, the 12Z Ukmet shifted east to a pretty nonthreatening position with regard to the SE US (24N, 70W), which is well east of the 12Z GFS, 12Z CMC, and the 0Z Euro. Encouraging sign since that is one of the two best models for the tropics.

Ukmet was good with irma but you need to qualify that statement about it being one of the two best..what time period then go back and look at verification

It is quite well-known that the Ukmet is in the top 2 in overall accuracy and much better than the GFS and CMC. Therefore, a position well to the east of the 12Z CMC and 12Z GFS can only be interpreted as encouraging for the SE US at this still early stage (i.e., still way too early to even attempt to say the SE US is out of danger, especially NC) just as we can say that the 0Z Euro was discouraging with its Wilmington hit.

[gatorcane]

The entire GFS track shifted west a good amount this run. Will it keep shifting west?

[Aric Dunn]

The entire GFS track shifted west a good amount this run. Will it keep shifting west?

alldepends on jose and that short wave that always takes it out to sea.. then leaves it behind..

if it goes out to sea on the first try then maria could go as far as the gulf. And the contiued right of track motion of Jose may help that scenario...

[Alyono]

12z UKMET shifts east.

Yes, indeed, the 12Z Ukmet shifted east to a pretty nonthreatening position with regard to the SE US (24N, 70W), which is well east of the 12Z GFS, 12Z CMC, and the 0Z Euro. Encouraging sign since that is one of the two best models for the tropics.

it also unrealistically keeps Jose around Cape Cod for 6 ays

[LarryWx]

OTOH, the 12Z GEFS is a bit discouraging for the SE US because its mean is the furthest SW of the last four runs. It has the largest number of Carolina hits of those 4 as well as the first in 4 runs with both a member that landfalls on FL and another that landfalls near the GA/SC line.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess all the other models just gave up on trying to figure out what Jose will do lol which will affect Maria of course..

[gatorcane]

OTOH, the 12Z GEFS is a bit discouraging for the SE US because its mean is the furthest SW of the last four runs. It has the largest number of Carolina hits of those 4 as well as the first in 4 runs with both a member that landfalls on FL and another that landfalls near the GA/SC line.

The GFS ensemble mean has gradually been shifting west the last 24 hours. 12Z below:

[NDG]

This is last night's 0z Euro ensembles, 27 members pointing towards the SE US.
I agree that its track in the 7-10 day range will depend a lot on where Jose is in that range.