ATL: MARIA - Models

[bamajammer4eva]

12z GEFS first one I've noticed with at least one track into the Gulf

[LarryWx]

12z GEFS first one I've noticed with at least one track into the Gulf

For the SE US, these 12Z GEFS members illustrate well that a further SW than expected track in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles would mean an increased danger.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro is slightly faster with Maria and slower with JOse ...

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM west of GFS:

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see Jose surviving off the NE Coast for a week in cooler SST's and the upwelling he will cause where much colder water sits just below the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

I just don't see Jose surviving off the NE Coast for a week in cooler SST's and the upwelling he will cause where much colder water sits just below the surface.

yeah I think most people are questioning that scenario..

[Aric Dunn]

at 96 hr the euro is in the exact same spot as the 120 hour 00z postion a entire 12 hours faster than the 00z ... also the ridging is a good deal stronger on this 12z run with jose slightly strong and farther ne..

[Aric Dunn]

120 hours jose is stronger and farther east.. ridge weaker.. maria should start turning north now.. back to the 12z solution from yesterday again.. well similar..

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro as of hour 144 is looking a little less threatening for the SE US than the 0Z Euro hour 156 with a slightly stronger and further south Jose, a slightly further north Maria, and a slightly weaker ridge to Jose's NE. Let's see how this ends up.

[Aric Dunn]

144 hours.. jose pretty much stalled off Virgina and not weakening.. lol though not a hurricane at least.. ridge is gone maria heading to meet with jose on a date..

[AutoPenalti]

120 hours jose is stronger and farther east.. ridge weaker.. maria should start turning north now.. back to the 12z solution from yesterday again.. well similar..

I'm honestly at a loss as how José can get any stronger than it is now...

[Aric Dunn]

Just going to have to wait a couple more days and see what jose does. with jose continuing to move NNE and east of the forecast it could just get picked up completely by the first shortwave. or with the more nne motion the loop is farther east then who knows..

just taking all the models past 2 days with a grain of salt at the moment.

[NJWxHurricane]

Just going to have to wait a couple more days and see what jose does. with jose continuing to move NNE and east of the forecast it could just get picked up completely by the first shortwave. or with the more nne motion the loop is farther east then who knows..

just taking all the models past 2 days with a grain of salt at the moment.

jose is actually west of the forecast point

[LarryWx]

As a coastal SE US resident who is exhausted from the last two years, the 12Z top two models for the tropics are at least somewhat encouraging to me. But it is still quite early, unfortunately.

[Aric Dunn]

Just going to have to wait a couple more days and see what jose does. with jose continuing to move NNE and east of the forecast it could just get picked up completely by the first shortwave. or with the more nne motion the loop is farther east then who knows..

just taking all the models past 2 days with a grain of salt at the moment.

jose is actually west of the forecast point

no quite a bit east of the forecast points.. with the sab points on there too..

and looking at satellite it is still moving nne..

sooo... that will affect the track if it continues to be right of track..

which in tern will affect the models of both Jose and Maria..

[gatorcane]

The JMA also recurves east of Bahamas. Looks like all the global models outside the NAVGEM recurve Maria east of Bahamas thanks to Jose leaving a huge weakness.

[NJWxHurricane]

Just going to have to wait a couple more days and see what jose does. with jose continuing to move NNE and east of the forecast it could just get picked up completely by the first shortwave. or with the more nne motion the loop is farther east then who knows..

just taking all the models past 2 days with a grain of salt at the moment.

jose is actually west of the forecast point

no quite a bit east of the forecast points.. with the sab points on there too..

and looking at satellite it is still moving nne..

sooo... that will affect the track if it continues to be right of track..

which in tern will affect the models of both Jose and Maria..

so the models are wrong then

[Aric Dunn]

jose is actually west of the forecast point

no quite a bit east of the forecast points.. with the sab points on there too..

and looking at satellite it is still moving nne..

sooo... that will affect the track if it continues to be right of track..

which in tern will affect the models of both Jose and Maria..

so the models are wrong then

well right now its nothing more than a few hour wobble .. if it continues then we have to look at what is causing it.. also every wobble counts and they can add up..

[Dean4Storms]

Complex situation beyond 4-5 days for the models. Jose gets taken out to sea or weaker than forecast by then and the ridge could easily build turning Maria back westward. If anything I suspect they are keeping Jose a viable T-cyclone for much too long. Remember the models had Irma as a hurricane clear into southern GA just a few days out and that was tracking her over land and in reality she was a 50-60mph TS with major dry air entrained and a shortwave.

[NJWxHurricane]

Complex situation beyond 4-5 days for the models. Jose gets taken out to sea or weaker than forecast by then and the ridge could easily build turning Maria back westward. If anything I suspect they are keeping Jose a viable T-cyclone for much too long. Remember the models had Irma as a hurricane clear into southern GA just a few days out and that was tracking her over land and in reality she was a 50-60mph TS with major dry air entrained and a shortwave.

or if jose moves slower and maria faster