ATL: MARIA - Models

[tolakram]

12z Euro

[chaser1]

Obviously, the best case scenario would be for the already battered Islands of the northeast Caribbean to be spared more suffering and for Maria to suddenly gain enough latitude that causes here to pass east and north of those islands while also sparing Puerto Rico. I don't think that'll happen though. Here's how I see it all play out...... Either Jose starts pulling out and to the Northeast soon and thereafter a strong 500mb Great Lakes ridge builds and causes Maria to threaten Florida from Southeast or ESE. OR, Jose sits for days just south or east of Cape Hatteras and causes tremendous beach erosion there, ultimately weakening to a barolclinic gale that finally gets pulled up and into the Westerlies, with a then building Great Lakes ridge to trap Maria and then cause a WNW motion towards the Georgia or South Carolina coastline. OR, Jose weakens and becomes trapped under a building Great Lakes ridge causing it to be pushed westward (or even WSW) as an extra-tropical storm that causes substantial beach erosion, and as a result of the same building ridge also causes Maria to turn northwestward toward the Northeast Florida or Georgia coastline. Bottom line is that if either of these three scenario's play out, than Maria ultimately ends up striking the U.S. I consider these scenario's more likely than Maria simply getting pulled pole-ward and re-curving east of the CONUS.

[Hurrilurker]

How far north of Hispaniola it passes will have a massive impact in the intesity and maybe even the track. Even 100 miles will be a huge difference. The path during those 24 hours or so will be critical.

[LarryWx]

Like the 0Z EPS, the 12Z EPS has several members that hit as far SW as FL (I counted 5) between next Sun and Tue and with 3 of those then going into the Gulf. I counted 2 of the 0Z EPS going into the Gulf. Also, like was the case with the 0Z EPS, there are some that hit the Carolinas and many that stay offshore the SE US.

The mean of the 12Z EPS is fairly similar to the 0Z EPS on her approach to the SE US although a bit east of the 0Z in later timeframes.

[LarryWx]

Looking back at the last several EPS runs, despite Jose's track getting more attention as a potential big influence on Maria's track for good reason, the # of member hits on FL has remained fairly steady with its nontrivial minority. In other words, though the threat hasn't really been high there yet on any recent EPS run, it hasn't really dropped much at all, if any. Also, the last 3 EPS runs going backwards have had this # of members getting into the Gulf: 3 (current one), 2, 2. So, the western outliers are persisting fwiw.

[jdjaguar]

I have hurricane fatigue. please be a fish, Maria.

Still haven't had an insurance adjuster come by for Irma.

[TheStormExpert]

The vast majority of the 12z EPS Ensembles recurve Maria OTS off the mid-Atlantic Coast it seems.

[bamajammer4eva]

12z looks like 9 with tracks across FL compared to 4 on 00z

12z is below Click for 00z https://imgur.com/gewMfeE

[Frank2]

Models with a few exceptions basing recurve on Jose's long stay in Western Atlantic and the trough it created. It makes sense. We have to remember each storm is different, in size, strength - and track.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... A little W and faster through 78 hrs...

[Blown Away]

18z GFS 102 hrs... Still a bit faster and W than 12z... Trend is Jose is farther W the past few runs which delays Maria's N turn...

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS as of hour 120 is still another run that looks like it will have Maria stay safely offshore the SE US.

[Aric Dunn]

jose is still just sitting there over 60 to 65 degree water for days.. sorry not happening..

it would be so shallow with convection none likely that there wouldbe little to no influence on the mid to upper level ridging building back in.

[sma10]

It's becoming increasingly apparent that the US owes a great debt of gratitude to Jose

[sma10]

jose is still just sitting there over 60 to 65 degree water for days.. sorry not happening..

it would be so shallow with convection none likely that there wouldbe little to no influence on the mid to upper level ridging building back in.

Logically, your post makes sense. But ALL models flubbing this? Seems very unlikely

[Aric Dunn]

jose is still just sitting there over 60 to 65 degree water for days.. sorry not happening..

it would be so shallow with convection none likely that there wouldbe little to no influence on the mid to upper level ridging building back in.

Logically, your post makes sense. But ALL models flubbing this? Seems very unlikely

the strength of jose over that water temp? yes.. all we need to do is look at the eastern pacific when a full on hurricane moves nw hits the cold current and dies down to nothing but a low level swirl with zero convection within 24 two 36 hrs.. the models have jose over cold temps for longer..

[sma10]

jose is still just sitting there over 60 to 65 degree water for days.. sorry not happening..

it would be so shallow with convection none likely that there wouldbe little to no influence on the mid to upper level ridging building back in.

Logically, your post makes sense. But ALL models flubbing this? Seems very unlikely

the strength of jose over that water temp? yes.. all we need to do is look at the eastern pacific when a full on hurricane moves nw hits the cold current and dies down to nothing but a low level swirl with zero convection.

This will put the NHC in a position to either trust its modeling or not. The models are right now insisting on a huge weakness at 70W, come Thursday. Obviously if there is instead strong ridging, well...

[LarryWx]

jose is still just sitting there over 60 to 65 degree water for days.. sorry not happening..

it would be so shallow with convection none likely that there wouldbe little to no influence on the mid to upper level ridging building back in.

Logically, your post makes sense. But ALL models flubbing this? Seems very unlikely

the strength of jose over that water temp? yes.. all we need to do is look at the eastern pacific when a full on hurricane moves nw hits the cold current and dies down to nothing but a low level swirl with zero convection within 24 two 36 hrs.. the models have jose over cold temps for longer..

But all it takes sometimes is a little weakness in a 500 mb ridge to allow for a TC to move north into it.

[hurricaneCW]

It's becoming increasingly apparent that the US owes a great debt of gratitude to Jose

I didn't realize the events already played out. This is a very complex pattern, I wouldn't be thanking anything just yet.

At one point Irma was supposed to go OTS or hit the east coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Hmmm....18z GFS at 198hr turns Maria Eastward just south of 30N.