ATL: MARIA - Models

[Ian2401]

How is it doing compared to the forecast points? Is it missing the points like it was yesterday?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I have a hard time seeing Florida at the moment. The global models are in too good agreement on a recurve well east of Florida and they really haven't been deviating much from this. Jose doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon.

Latest 18Z GFS ensembles. Pretty good agreement here:

GFS tends to underestimate the ridge, overestimate the trough but as of late, the setup is too complex to be certain. In reality, it would be intricate to predict Maria's track 5 days onward

[RL3AO]

I have a hard time seeing Florida at the moment. The global models are in too good agreement on a recurve well east of Florida and they really haven't been deviating much from this.

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/y6a4t6yyx/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_29.png[/i]

I know what the ensembles are saying. I just don't have confidence that they are showing the true envelope of possibilities. Too much uncertainty beyond day 5.

[gatorcane]

Just released below: Clearly the models are seeing a big weakness left behind from Jose:

[tgenius]

Just released below: Clearly the models are seeing a big weakness left behind from Jose:

That's some pretty solid agreement at this point. Let's hope they are right for Floridas sake.

[AutoPenalti]

Just released below: Clearly the models are seeing a big weakness left behind from Jose:

Breathing a sigh a relief here, looks like the pasta plots is telling me all clear for SFL out to 8 days.

Where have I seen this before.

[invest man]

I have a feeling the next Euro run will shift well east in the 5+ day range just off other models. Anyone else see it this way?

[srainhoutx]

The margin for error at days 6 to 7 is 500 to 700 miles. Careful stating absolutes beyond 3 to 5 days.

[toad strangler]

Just released below: Clearly the models are seeing a big weakness left behind from Jose:

Breathing a sigh a relief here, looks like the pasta plots is telling me all clear for SFL out to 8 days.

Where have I seen this before.

Well it's pretty much agreement across the board. I totally get that nothing is in stone but you can't ignore consensus like this either. Jose is set up to provide Maria a train track to ride on.

[Alyono]

I have a hard time seeing Florida at the moment. The global models are in too good agreement on a recurve well east of Florida and they really haven't been deviating much from this.

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/y6a4t6yyx/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_29.png[/i]

I know what the ensembles are saying. I just don't have confidence that they are showing the true envelope of possibilities. Too much uncertainty beyond day 5.

12Z ensembles give a ~10 percent chance of this passing within 125 miles of Miami

[SFLcane]

Yep not even making past 75W Jose forecast to sit and spin of the east coast for days essentially not allowing the ridge to build in. Huge weakness being progged by today's models works for me sweated bullets a few nights thx to Irma. Hope this trend continues

[Alyono]

The margin for error at days 6 to 7 is 500 to 700 miles. Careful stating absolutes beyond 3 to 5 days.

it's not that large. The 7 day mean error is actually no worse than the 3 day error 20 years ago

[NDG]

One thing I have noticed comparing the 12z Euro Ensembles to its earlier 0z run is that we are seeing a less spread in the 5-7 day range, but still quiet a bit spread in the 7-10 day range.
Like other have mentioned 9 out of 50 members have a track over or very close to FL compared to 4 in earlier run. By no means FL is out of the woods yet, but I would say that the sypnotic is different than during Irma, the ridge to the north of Maria is much weaker than during Irma.
But there is no deep trough across the eastern US unlike during Irma.

12z run



0z run

[NDG]

Interesting that the Euro ensemble members that show Maria tracking over or close to FL show Jose either weakening and or moving eastward away from the NE US, if this happens the big ridge over the Great Lakes would bridge across the mid Atlantic forcing Maria to stay on a WNW to NW track.

[CronkPSU]

I have a feeling the next Euro run will shift well east in the 5+ day range just off other models. Anyone else see it this way?

Nope...but we will just have to wait and see

[Voltron]

Not buying these models. Saw JB's broadcast; thinks the ridge is gonna win out and force to EC Carolinas. Jose to disapate. Just not seeing this weakness.

[toad strangler]

:double:

Not buying these models. Saw JB's broadcast; thinks the ridge is gonna win out and force to EC Carolinas. Jose to disapate. Just not seeing this weakness.

As unlikely as that looks now. It's plausible.

[Frank2]

Like every FL resident, hoping current model trend continues - and so does Maria. Last 2 weeks were emotionally brutal here in S Florida...

I think key is a forecast second Jose loop, that'll help keep trough open...

[NDG]

Maria's track past its 4-5 day range will be yet another tricky track to forecast just like it has been for most of the systems this season so far, at this time by no means can we say for sure that after it tracks across the Lesser Antilles (unfortunately) whether it will be a recurve out to sea or a threat to the eastern US including FL.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at recon data from JOSE and current structure it appears transition is already occuring and the defined center is falling part.. models should be changing over the next few runs.