ATL: MARIA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Side note.. 00z HWRF is much much weaker into the leeward islands.. barely a TS and farther south ( if your looking at the 10m winds) 850 its only a 75k hurricane( more likely) ..

[sma10]

Good grief the 0z CMC long range solution is too twisted for words. After landfalling Maria in South Carolina, Jose returns from the north Atlantic from the east to join up with Maria, creating a storm in the Western Atlantic the size of the planet Jupiter.

[Aric Dunn]

soo much for all the GIV data helping much.........

[Aric Dunn]

ok 00z HWRF has some unrealistic weakening then turning into a cat 4 in 8 hours.. right as it hits the islands tomorrow.

[chaser1]

ok 00z HWRF has some unrealistic weakening then turning into a cat 4 in 8 hours.. right as it hits the islands tomorrow.

That's just bizarre?!

[LarryWx]

Anyone got the 0Z Ukmet for Maria?

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone got the 0Z Ukmet for Maria?

way east....however just disregard every model past 3 days... in 3 days we will have a better idea.

[jonj2040]

I was stepping through the cmc Monday 0z and noticed that td or ts lee and Jose are right next to each other at 162 hours then lee shoots off to the NE while jo se goes back west. Just curious
if this scenario played out, what would cause such a stark difference in the direction and effects of the weakness when they are only 100 miles apart?

[Aric Dunn]

I was stepping through the cmc Monday 0z and noticed that td or ts lee and Jose are right next to each other at 162 hours then lee shoots off to the NE while jo se goes back west. Just curious
if this scenario played out, what would cause such a stark difference in the direction and effects of the weakness when they are only 100 miles apart?

that scenario has no answer at this point.. just disregard all models past 3 days for now.

[joey]

looks like thecmc has a couple of tricks with maria brings her further west this run very close to se fl

[Aric Dunn]

Jose is going to be a empty swirl by morning if this trend keeps up.. models will have to adjust at some point soon..

[Aric Dunn]

00z euro is much slower at 96 hours ... with more ridging and jose weaker and farther north.. could finally be a realistic run ? ??

[wxmann_91]

00z euro is much slower at 96 hours ... with more ridging and jose weaker and farther north.. could finally be a realistic run ? ??

Uhh... if you're referring to Maria, it's much faster.

[Aric Dunn]

aaannnddd bye bye ridging from jose still.. still too strong,,,

[Aric Dunn]

oh dear lord... now the Euro has ex JOse dropping SE completely opposite of the 12z run and opposite of the 00z run last night.. lol

might allow the ridge to build between them maybe..

the models are the most inconsistent I have ever seen them...

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro looks like another recurve east of the US east coast based on hour 144.

[Brent]

is Jose even gonna be alive in a week?

I have my doubts..

[Alyono]

EC is flip-flopping big time on Jose. Creating high uncertainty for the day 5-7 forecast

[wxmann_91]

The 0Z Euro is a likely recurve. What it tell us is that more easterly motion of Jose + faster motion of Maria = higher recurve chances.

A further west Jose = more likely it completes the loop fast and allows the ridge to fill back in.
Slower Maria = less interaction between her and Jose.

Fortunately for us, global models have a west bias of storms moving north, and a slow bias of storms moving WNW in the deep tropics. But we'll wait for more model cycles before making any conclusions.

[Aric Dunn]

EC is flip-flopping big time on Jose. Creating high uncertainty for the day 5-7 forecast

yeah this is ridiculous.. from Sw motion on the 12z to SE motion now? from 96 hours to 120 .. really..