ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

That's probably the most surprising recon pass I can remember in a long time. Never would have guessed this was a borderline cat 3.

[tolakram]

COD visible loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-48-1-100

[tolakram]

[abajan]

thanks you so much.
It's not a good news because people here are not ready. Too long without cyclone in the island...
It's already rainning heavily.
Good night!

It could get pretty intense there. I'm guessing the eye will go through the Martinique Passage, but it could well go directly over Martinique instead. Maria is currently forecast to be a lower end Category 3 hurricane by the time it reaches there, but preliminary recon data is indicating that it may already be that strong. So, it's not out of the realm of possibility that it could be an upper end Cat 3 or even a Cat 4 by the time its eye gets there. Warn as many of your fellow countrymen as you can, of the potentially serious situation facing the island.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I think it's best that you be forewarned.

[Aric Dunn]

This is right in line with the HWRF intensity at 850 mb .. not the 10m winds.. not surprised there..

[NDG]

Why would they say that it is at 14.6N when clearly the recon found it at 14.45N?
Unbelievable!


8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18
Location: 14.6°N 59.7°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[flamingosun]

The NHC is using 110 mph winds for the 8am advisory . . . high end Cat 2. Hang tight, islanders!

000
WTNT35 KNHC 181148
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS MARIA INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 59.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

Honestly i am very surprised they did not go with the eyewall dropsonde more than enough evidence for cat 3.. 120 mph easy

[tolakram]

Hi cyclone. Longtime storm2ker here. Love in rincón on west coast. Watching with huge amount of interest. Have a weather station here (barrio puntas) on Wunderground. Will post what I can when I can here. If the current track verifies we are not at all happy. Stay safe where u are and be in touch.

Rincón.

I am prepared for the worse but hoping for the best.Let's see how PR fares from this when it is all over as you know the power grid is not the best.

Good luck to you and everyone else in it's path. What a bad bad year.

[SouthDadeFish]

Personally, I see no reason to not believe the 100 kt SFMR readings. A portion of these readings occurred before the rain rates became very large. The dropsonde in the NE eyewall also suggests those readings were legit. It's splitting hairs arguing +/- 5 kt though... I'm sure the NHC has their reasons.

[RL3AO]

I'm sure the NHC has their reasons.

And I'm sure those reasons were they had a couple minutes to process the information and then update the advisory, which was probably written up to have this as a cat 1 still. They probably didn't even see the dropsonde before it was sent. They saw 108kt FL and decided to go with 95kt. When they get more information they can update it.

[Gustywind]

Honestly i am very surprised they did not go with the eyewall dropsonde more than enough evidence for cat 3.. 120 mph easy

That's high Aric ? So you think that aT 11am we could have a cat 3 with at least 100 kts given the current trend?

[SouthDadeFish]

Very compact core with a ton of spiral banding. The eyewall convective bursts are evident on visible this morning.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

MH Maria.

AL, 15, 2017091812, , BEST, 0, 145N, 597W, 100, 967, HU

[Hurricane Andrew]

MH Maria.

AL, 15, 2017091812, , BEST, 0, 145N, 597W, 100, 967, HU

Guess a boost is coming at 11...goes to show that SAT appearance can be deceiving.

[AubreyStorm]

MH Maria.

AL, 15, 2017091812, , BEST, 0, 145N, 597W, 100, 967, HU

Cat 3 right?

[Aric Dunn]

An eye is trying to clear out on both IR and visible. probably wont be pretty until the eyewall convection can maintain and not pulse

[northjaxpro]

Maria is one heck of a good looking tropical cyclone this morning! The inner core and structure is classical! This cyclone unfortunately could be as or as much as impressive than Irma was incredible as that to imagine. Wow! This has become a truly nightmarish 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Continued prayers to all in the islands. God be with you!!

[GCANE]

Eyewall is closing off.
Evident on radar and visible satellite.

[Aric Dunn]

Unless it turns it is going to come in south of nearly all the guidence and all the previous ( non adjusted) NHC forecast.