ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

looks like pressure may be down to 965 ish..

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Unless it turns it is going to come in south of nearly all the guidence and all the previous ( non adjusted) NHC forecast.

I hope it does so. Seeing northern Leewards with too much torture is pretty sad.

[GCANE]

Real tight spin on IR.
Last recon was 12nm diameter eye.
I wonder if this goes pinhole?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR of 109mph on the SE quadrant.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 13:11Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 12:59:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°33'N 59°51'W (14.55N 59.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 81 statute miles (130 km) to the E (93°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (France).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,814m (9,232ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 78kts (~ 89.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 38° at 83kts (From the NE at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,029m (9,938ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest, SW
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the E (84°) from the flight level center at 11:19:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 98kts (~ 112.8mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SE (129°) from the flight level center at 13:02:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 70° at 12kts (From the ENE at 14mph)

[northjaxpro]

966 mb 108 Knots Flight Level. Major Tropical Cyclone

Wow! Incredible. No telling how much stronger she could get.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

:uarrow: 966 mb 108 knots. Major Tropical Cyclone

Wow! Incredible. No telling how much stronger she could get.

With the small diameter eye, now 10nm, that will be some very strong winds when she makes landfall.

[RL3AO]

Still appears to be on course to make landfall over Dominica. The best case scenario would be a westward wobble that puts the eye between Martinique and Dominica. That would probably limit the eyewall exposure to the southern tip of Dominica and the northern tip of Martinique.

[northjaxpro]

My heart is just breaking for everyone down there. A complete nightmare if you ever can imagine! My God!

My real fear is that Maria really is going to rapidly intensify with such an impressive inner core and eye structure.

[Aric Dunn]

WOW..

winds just barely above the surface... wont be long before those are mixed down as the pressure drops..

[1900hurricane]

Recon wind data has been close to what would be expected of the pressure using KZC.

[Gustywind]

WOW..

winds just barely above the surface... wont be long before those are mixed down as the pressure drops..

Aric... right now Maria is a cat 2 or cat 3?

[cycloneye]

Very impressive radar presentation.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/909766510675099648

[Aric Dunn]

WOW..

winds just barely above the surface... wont be long before those are mixed down as the pressure drops..

Aric... right now Maria is a cat 2 or cat 3?

offically at 110mph cat 2 per the NHC... however it is intensifying and wont be long before it a CAT 3 or higher..

[gatorcane]

Stay safe to those in the Leewards and Puerto Rico who will be impacted by Maria.

[Aric Dunn]

Very impressive radar presentation.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/909766510675099648

where did he get that radar color scheme from ?

[Gustywind]

Stay safe to those in the Leewards and Puerto Rico who will be impacted by Maria.

Thanks a lot Gatorcane. Guadeloupe should be on red alert cyclone at 12 AM given the authorities.

[srainhoutx]

GOES 16 Rapid Scan Mesoscale visible imagery suggests a clearing eye make be developing. Looks like it will be a pinhole eye is the trends continue. For all those in the Leeward Islands and beyond, your neighbors on the Mainland are praying for you all.

[Gustywind]

WOW..

winds just barely above the surface... wont be long before those are mixed down as the pressure drops..

Aric... right now Maria is a cat 2 or cat 3?

offically at 110mph cat 2 per the NHC... however it is intensifying and wont be long before it a CAT 3 or higher..

oH BOY, i'm very worrying for Dominica two years ago with TS ERIKA who hit them seriously with torrentials rains...