ATL: MARIA - Models

[Dean4Storms]

RI seems very realistic before Maria gets to PR, hope they prepare for a Cat.5 and hope for the best like a track much further south.

Still think the 06z GFS keeps the weakness by Jose there too long, it is already decaying and it isn't even in the colder SST's yet.

If I lived in the Carolina's northward I would keep up with the latest updates with Maria. I do believe the ULL/trough across the Gulf will keep Maria north of Florida however that is not even written in stone anywhere.

[Ken711]

Big shift east by the Euro's ensembles after day 4-5 compared to previous run.

I think we are seeing false models based on the belief Jose will be there

Yes, I would be surprised if most of the ensembles aren't showing a NC and VA hit by Tuesday and Wednesday.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here in NC I am liking the trends in the models. Remember, that PR and the other islands are in the path. The models seem to be honing in on them. Still a ways from the US.

[Ken711]

Here in NC I am liking the trends in the models. Remember, that PR and the other islands are in the path. The models seem to be honing in on them. Still a ways from the US.

The models are making too much of Hail Mary with Jose with an OTS trend. That ridge dropping down from the Great Lakes is going to be very strong to displace or affect in a meaningful way IMO.

[Hurricane Andrew]

RI seems very realistic before Maria gets to PR, hope they prepare for a Cat.5 and hope for the best like a track much further south.

Still think the 06z GFS keeps the weakness by Jose there too long, it is already decaying and it isn't even in the colder SST's yet.

If I lived in the Carolina's northward I would keep up with the latest updates with Maria. I do believe the ULL/trough across the Gulf will keep Maria north of Florida however that is not even written in stone anywhere.

*coughing*

What? Oh dear.

[psyclone]

Just as things keep looking more dire for the islands they are looking much better for the CONUS. Yes way Jose!

[gatorcane]

12Z Guidance. There would have to be quite a big shift or series of consecutive west shifts over the next several days to put Florida at risk here. I am feeling good about Florida still. Bahamas still at risk though.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hello there.

[Ken711]

12Z Guidance. There would have to be quite a big shift or series of signifiant shifts over the next several days to put Florida at risk here. I am feeling good about Florida still. Bahamas still at risk though.

I agree, Florida's risk looks pretty good. NC and the mid-Atlantic I'd say not as much once the models start correcting for the Jose-less affect they are obviously building in.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If I were in the east coast of Florida or over NC, I wouldn't take a breath of relief yet.... Models are not doing so well with Jose and the ridge. I learned some lessons from both Irma and Jose. I keep this in mind: the stronger a hurricane gets, the more influence the ridge has in steering the system. If this would rapidly intensify earlier or stronger than forecast, this may actually move more SW than expected possibly sparing PR to the south but worse for Hispaniola/Cuba. Then again, this isn't a forecast. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

If these shifts continue, we may end up seeing a track similar to David than Irene

[Aric Dunn]

12Z Guidance. There would have to be quite a big shift or series of consecutive west shifts over the next several days to put Florida at risk here. I am feeling good about Florida still. Bahamas still at risk though.

did you not notice its only the TAB's that are 12z? Also, more importantly, notice their track ! steering currents clearly die no longer north they start looping around.

toggle the last 2 images..

pretty clear with the shifts..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=15

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at the latest track guidance it is looking more and more likely that Maria may very well take a similar track to Jose cutting between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda on its way out to sea. Thank you Jose for leaving behind such a big weakness to prevent yet another U.S. major hit. Not saying a U.S. landfall can't happen but it's looking slim at the moment.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looking at the latest track guidance it is looking more and more likely that Maria may very well take a similar track to Jose cutting between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda on its way out to sea. Thank you Jose for leaving behind such a big weakness to prevent yet another U.S. major hit. Not saying a U.S. landfall can't happen but it's looking slim at the moment.

I wouldn't say "slim" but it could be worse I guess. I still think it's a bit premature to say "preventing a major hit" though. Did we at least learn something with Irma?

[TheStormExpert]

If I were in the east coast of Florida or over NC, I wouldn't take a breath of relief yet.... Models are not doing so well with Jose and the ridge. I learned some lessons from both Irma and Jose. I keep this in mind: the stronger a hurricane gets, the more influence the ridge has in steering the system. If this would rapidly intensify earlier or stronger than forecast, this may actually move more SW than expected possibly sparing PR to the south but worse for Hispaniola/Cuba. Then again, this isn't a forecast. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

But not a single GEFS Ensemble strikes Florida as of 06z, and only 2 EPS Ensembles strike Florida as of 00z which is a bit down from yesterday's 12z. Even North Carolina which was looking like the target for a few days only has 2 06z GEFS Ensembles hitting it and 2 00z EPS Ensembles hitting it.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at the latest track guidance it is looking more and more likely that Maria may very well take a similar track to Jose cutting between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda on its way out to sea. Thank you Jose for leaving behind such a big weakness to prevent yet another U.S. major hit. Not saying a U.S. landfall can't happen but it's looking slim at the moment.

I wouldn't say "slim" but it could be worse I guess. I still think it's a bit premature to say "preventing a major hit" though. Did we at least learn something with Irma?

I guess I should've said lesson the chances as there looks like there will be enough of a weakness leftover despite how long or intense Jose is.

[RL3AO]

Florida is looking pretty good right now. I still have very little confidence on Jose (and therefore Maria) beyond day 5.

[meriland29]

Looks like Maria and Jose are on a consistent 'dancing' trend. Possible fujiwara if not a left behind weakness from Jose's remnants causing Maria to move out to sea there.

[Aric Dunn]

I would wager now that JOSE is breaking down way earlier than any model was showing yesterday that we start see some swings back westerly. probably starting with some members ..

[psyclone]

Looking at the latest track guidance it is looking more and more likely that Maria may very well take a similar track to Jose cutting between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda on its way out to sea. Thank you Jose for leaving behind such a big weakness to prevent yet another U.S. major hit. Not saying a U.S. landfall can't happen but it's looking slim at the moment.

I wouldn't say "slim" but it could be worse I guess. I still think it's a bit premature to say "preventing a major hit" though. Did we at least learn something with Irma?

I guess I should've said lesson the chances as there looks like there will be enough of a weakness leftover despite how long or intense Jose is.

There is nothing wrong with acknowledging a favorable trend for the CONUS. It's there, it's substantial and growing. Of course it comes with the usual caveats but this is good news for us. I'll drink to that. In the nearer term things are looking bad for our friends in the NE Caribbean. Here's to hoping Maria's small core dances around as many landmasses as possible.

[sma10]

We may start seeing some funny things from our globals the next couple of days. I don't put much stock on the old BAMs verbatim, but they can sometimes be precursors, and as Aric mentions above, the 12z runs are now showing funny looping.

Also remember that the Euro is showing full on fujiwara right off the east coast, an event that, as far as I know, hasn't occurred at all in recent history.

Perhaps this all has a very benign, undramatic ending, but too many unknown variables at this point