ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Wow...

Just...wow. Cat 4 for Dominica at this rate.

[Aric Dunn]

It's really ramping up on radar now. Eyewall is very well defined. I'm growing increasingly concerned for what recon is about to find in this center pass.

well if the earlier eyewall drop was any indication.. 120 plus is quite possible.

It's all going to depend on where they drop. With the storm still ramping it wouldn't surprise me to see the SFMR readings around 95-100 knots but a dropsonde fall through something crazy like 135 knots a few hundred feet up.

As we saw with irma those crazy winds a few hundred feet up were in fact mixing to the surface... so its not out of the realm ..

[dukeblue219]

Peak unflagged measurement is 104 knots SFMR and 115 knots flight level in this pass.

[SouthDadeFish]

It's really ramping up on radar now. Eyewall is very well defined. I'm growing increasingly concerned for what recon is about to find in this center pass.

Extrap down to 958 mb... 111 kt SFMR (flagged but plausible). 115 kt flight level. Ugh. That's a massive pressure drop between center fixes.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow...

Just...wow. Cat 4 for Dominica at this rate.

yeah not surprised after that last eyewall drop..

pressure down into the upper 950's

[gatorcane]

Wow impressive system indeed...saved floater VIS:

[dukeblue219]

Wow, splashed at 968mb with 104 knots still!

Dropsonde:
968mb (Surface) 50° (from the NE) 104 knots (120 mph)
964mb 55° (from the NE) 103 knots (119 mph)
961mb 65° (from the ENE) 116 knots (133 mph)
953mb 70° (from the ENE) 111 knots (128 mph)
944mb 75° (from the ENE) 117 knots (135 mph)
938mb 80° (from the E) 129 knots (148 mph)
935mb 80° (from the E) 131 knots (151 mph)
932mb 85° (from the E) 130 knots (150 mph)
924mb 85° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
918mb 90° (from the E) 124 knots (143 mph)
912mb 90° (from the E) 125 knots (144 mph)
905mb 95° (from the E) 114 knots (131 mph)
897mb 95° (from the E) 110 knots (127 mph)
891mb 100° (from the E) 115 knots (132 mph)
883mb 105° (from the ESE) 110 knots (127 mph)
856mb 110° (from the ESE) 116 knots (133 mph)
850mb 105° (from the ESE) 115 knots (132 mph)
693mb 135° (from the SE) 88 knots (101 mph)

[NDG]

Latest pass has enough evidence for an upgrade to Cat 3.
IMO.


43930 1449N 05953W 6965 03008 9867 +105 +087 140093 095 074 003 00
144000 1447N 05954W 6961 02982 9828 +112 +080 139101 104 079 008 03
144030 1446N 05955W 6974 02933 9794 +114 +106 140101 105 085 043 00
144100 1445N 05956W 6966 02897 9764 +114 //// 137112 115 092 070 01
144130 1444N 05957W 6936 02902 9704 +128 +128 136085 113 104 041 00
144200 1443N 05959W 6971 02820 9643 +131 +127 131048 073 111 025 03
144230 1442N 06000W 6967 02813 9620 +140 +102 114022 036 049 003 03
144300 1440N 06001W 6967 02804 9603 +147 +093 093017 018 034 001 00
144330 1438N 06001W 6973 02787 9580 +160 +105 034005 017 031 001 00
144400 1437N 06002W 6970 02807 9592 +162 +114 283032 038 043 002 03
144430 1435N 06003W 6965 02841 9635 +147 +125 277063 074 078 003 00
144500 1434N 06003W 6965 02879 9686 +137 +119 278084 089 086 005 00

[Aric Dunn]

Again the HWRF 850 mb winds ( vs the 10m ) has been doing very well with harvey,IMRA and now Maria

[RL3AO]

I'd go with 105 knots.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, splashed at 968mb with 104 knots still!

Dropsonde:
968mb (Surface) 50° (from the NE) 104 knots (120 mph)
964mb 55° (from the NE) 103 knots (119 mph)
961mb 65° (from the ENE) 116 knots (133 mph)
953mb 70° (from the ENE) 111 knots (128 mph)
944mb 75° (from the ENE) 117 knots (135 mph)
938mb 80° (from the E) 129 knots (148 mph)
935mb 80° (from the E) 131 knots (151 mph)
932mb 85° (from the E) 130 knots (150 mph)
924mb 85° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
918mb 90° (from the E) 124 knots (143 mph)
912mb 90° (from the E) 125 knots (144 mph)
905mb 95° (from the E) 114 knots (131 mph)
897mb 95° (from the E) 110 knots (127 mph)
891mb 100° (from the E) 115 knots (132 mph)
883mb 105° (from the ESE) 110 knots (127 mph)
856mb 110° (from the ESE) 116 knots (133 mph)
850mb 105° (from the ESE) 115 knots (132 mph)
693mb 135° (from the SE) 88 knots (101 mph)

and again.. as the pressure drops those winds just above the surface will begin to mix down..

and looking at radar.. every new image is showing a rapidly deepening hurricane.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[Aric Dunn]

center drop had 31kts of wind with 961. likely down to at least 959 or 958

[srainhoutx]

Maria is a Major:


HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 60.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 60.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 59.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.1N 61.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 62.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 60.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[dukeblue219]

Wow, splashed at 968mb with 104 knots still!
[...]

and again.. as the pressure drops those winds just above the surface will begin to mix down..

and looking at radar.. every new image is showing a rapidly deepening hurricane.

After reading your response I want to clarify for everyone that by "still" I meant that it was remarkable to find such high winds at 968mb, which was the minimum central pressure not long ago. It's clearly supportive of a current pressure substantially lower. Not "still" as in "wow, still only 104knots."

[NDG]

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18
Location: 14.7°N 60.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

[Aric Dunn]

I'd go with 105 knots.

with a blend of flight level sfmr and the dropsonde would be about 108.. soo 105 or 110 is reasonable.

[GCANE]

Would be better if this was zoomed in more... but you can clearly see the eye now.. very tiny tiny..

slide back and forth at end of loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... -200-1-100

Go to Slider and use Mesoscale 2 for Sector

dont see it..

Use this link:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[znel52]

Add another major to this crazy 2017 season.

[SouthDadeFish]

Maria has intensified by 50 kt in the last 24 hours... Right before an expected landfall in the Antilles. Worst case scenario unfolding.

[galaxy401]

150 mph forecasted for Puerto Rico.