ATL: MARIA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#821 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:20 pm

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1486
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#822 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:21 pm

Oh my. 120 Hour Euro is taking Jose south and restrengthening it. What????
2 likes   

BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#823 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:22 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:Oh my. 120 Hour Euro is taking Jose south and restrengthening it. What????

Yup, fujiwara again, toss this in the garbage.
0 likes   

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#824 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:22 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:Oh my. 120 Hour Euro is taking Jose south and restrengthening it. What????


It's as out of touch with Jose as the GFS it appears.
1 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#825 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:22 pm

yep their isobars are linked.. fujiwhara coming right up.. lol
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#826 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:23 pm

Jose getting stronger as well.

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#827 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:23 pm

its going to force JOse into the outer bank from the NE lol
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#828 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:24 pm

This 12z Euro run is heading to another fujiwara solution.
0 likes   

jdjaguar
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:07 pm
Location: Jacksonville Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#829 Postby jdjaguar » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:yep their isobars are linked.. fujiwhara coming right up.. lol

fujiwhara...why is this effect found humorous?
0 likes   

BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#830 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:yep their isobars are linked.. fujiwhara coming right up.. lol

Toss this in the trash.
1 likes   

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#831 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its going to force JOse into the outer bank from the NE lol


The Euro is in fantasy land.
1 likes   

BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#832 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:26 pm

jdjaguar wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:yep their isobars are linked.. fujiwhara coming right up.. lol

fujiwhara...why is this effect found humorous?

Because it ain't gonna happen, and its absurd.
1 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#833 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its going to force JOse into the outer bank from the NE lol


Well that would be par for the course for 2017. It has been the year of 52 inches of rainfall in Houston and a 185MPH Cat 5 in the SW Atlantic. Why shouldn't the weirdness continue.
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#834 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:27 pm

jdjaguar wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:yep their isobars are linked.. fujiwhara coming right up.. lol

fujiwhara...why is this effect found humorous?


Extremely unlikely to occur.
1 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#835 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:27 pm

12Z EC is even stronger with Jose than the 00Z run lol. I am confused. Unless Jose pulls off some crazy warm-seclusion intensification process, I ain't buying it...
4 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#836 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:28 pm

Euro a decent ways EAST @ 120 hours

Image
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#837 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:28 pm

this is an example of why we should not blindly follow the EC

It is know for spectacular failures at times. Not often, but sometimes it does something that makes very little sense. This is one of them
7 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#838 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:29 pm

Honestly, at this point I think beyond day 5 we can't predict anything. Everything is on the table.
1 likes   

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#839 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:29 pm

chris_fit wrote:Euro a decent ways EAST @ 120 hours

Image


East? Looks like west.
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#840 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:30 pm

Can someone please explain to me exactly what Jose does for it to intensify that far north and then drop south? LMAO... :lol:
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests