ATL: MARIA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

looks like I get to throw all the models past 3 to 4 days out again.. maybe 12z tomorrow when jose is an empty swirl will the models respond..

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro a decent ways EAST @ 120 hours

Be careful using this comparison Chris as it is comparing today's 12z to yesterday's 12z.

[BYG Jacob]

Can someone please explain to me exactly what Jose does for it to intensify that far north and then drop south? LMAO...

Literally nothing, just pure fantasy

[chris_fit]

Euro a decent ways EAST @ 120 hours

East? Looks like west.

The frame that hangs on a little longer is the current most recent run, compared to the run 24 hours ago. See the time stamps. It shifted East Compared to Yesterday 12Z run.

[Alyono]

EC has a purely tropical Jose with a well defined eye on the simulated IR at day 6

BS FLAG. Throw the whole run in the garbage

[Ken711]

Euro a decent ways EAST @ 120 hours

East? Looks like west.

The frame that hangs on a little longer is the current most recent run, compared to the run 24 hours ago. See the time stamps. It shifted East Compared to Yesterday 12Z run.

Got it, my eyes were playing tricks with me. Thanks

[BYG Jacob]

EC has a purely tropical Jose with a well defined eye on the simulated IR at day 6

BS FLAG. Throw the whole run in the garbage

There is absolutely no basis in reality for that run.

[sma10]

I honestly wonder what the mets at Nhc think about these fujiwara runs. We are getting precariously closer to the 120hr forecast horizon and they may have to start addressing this.

[RL3AO]

I would buy an intensifying extra-topical cyclone, but the dynamics aren't there for that. There seems to be no reason for this not to weaken and have the wind field slowly spin down.

[AutoPenalti]

I guess another run that goes to the

[RL3AO]

I honestly wonder what the mets at Nhc think about these fujiwara runs

"I'm glad we aren't forecasting out to 7 days yet"

[Fountainguy97]

EC has a purely tropical Jose with a well defined eye on the simulated IR at day 6

BS FLAG. Throw the whole run in the garbage

not only that but EURO STRENGTHENS jose during its loop


The key factor I am seeing is the next 24-36 hours of Jose's life. GFS, NAM (I know), and EURO all strengthen Jose by at least 10MB. if that happens then we give weight to the almighty Jose. and then the fujiwara is a real possibility. Without those extra 10mb (GFS says 25+ stronger) Jose is a husk of what these models show and Maria takes aim for the East coast.

[Ken711]

I would buy an intensifying extra-topical cyclone, but the dynamics aren't there for that. There seems to be no reason for this not to weaken and have the wind field slowly spin down.

Is there anything of value from this run such as the Great Lakes high that is useful compared to prior runs?

[OntarioEggplant]

The only thing I can possibly figure for José is that it's keeping it over the Gulf Stream for an extended period of time and overcoupling the two.

Otherwise, I'm more likely to believe the José to Iceland GEFS member

[sma10]

All else being equal, how likely is it EVER for a tropical system to transition to extra tropical and then back to tropical?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z JMA does something very similar to the Euro too so Euro not alone with the idea.

[OntarioEggplant]

All else being equal, how likely is it EVER for a tropical system to transition to extra tropical and then back to tropical?

It's happened before. The 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane did it. That's just off the top of my head

[gatorcane]

Another view of the 12Z GFS Ensembles track. Talk about some uncertainty after about day 4-5...:

[sma10]

All else being equal, how likely is it EVER for a tropical system to transition to extra tropical and then back to tropical?

It's happened before. The 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane did it. That's just off the top of my head

So ... you're saying he has a chance.

[BYG Jacob]

The 12Z JMA does something very similar to the Euro too so Euro not alone with the idea.

So more than one model is very likely very wrong, awesome.