ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Impressive hurricane, epic 2017 hurricane season. Looks to me the eye has wobbled a bit to the north according to Martinique radar. Looks almost inevitable that Dominica is going to take the brunt of Maria's wrath.....MGC

Looks like to my untrained eyes, very big wobble... hope that this trend will stop quickly ... because of that could be real threat for Dominica and by extension in Guadeloupe too, not very good news

[BYG Jacob]

eyewall almost a solid ring of very intense convection. likely hitting peak winds in the next 6 to 8 hours..

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

ok i know i'm blind but it looks to me like she's feeling the tug north on those last cpl frames

No, you're right, she gained quite a bit of latitude.

[Gustywind]

eyewall almost a solid ring of very intense convection. likely hitting peak winds in the next 6 to 8 hours..

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

ok i know i'm blind but it looks to me like she's feeling the tug north on those last cpl frames

Yes, looks like , the radar is assuming that with untrained eyes.. is that the weakness of the rigdge expected ?

[SouthDadeFish]

Maria's eye has rapidly warmed over the past hour or two. I would wager there is a high likelihood Maria is now a category four hurricane.

[OntarioEggplant]

I really hope recon sorts out its comms issues soon

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall almost a solid ring of very intense convection. likely hitting peak winds in the next 6 to 8 hours..

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

ok i know i'm blind but it looks to me like she's feeling the tug north on those last cpl frames

Yes, looks like , the radar is assuming that with untrained eyes.. is that the weakness of the rigdge expected ?

The core is fairly small. The ridging seems to be holding. So this sudden jog to the wnw more is likely do to the inner core of the circulation interacting with the higher elevation of the islands. If so then in should swing back more wnw soon.

[txwatcher91]

eyewall almost a solid ring of very intense convection. likely hitting peak winds in the next 6 to 8 hours..

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

ok i know i'm blind but it looks to me like she's feeling the tug north on those last cpl frames

No, you're right, she gained quite a bit of latitude.

I believe the GFS was hinting at a bump north at this point in its 12z run.

[hurricaneCW]

Ouch looks like a direct hit on Dominica incoming from a Category 4 hurricane. Maria has just exploded over the past 24 hrs.

[madinina972]

In the south or martinique it s vert calm...

[WeatherGuesser]

We don't know what kind of personnel or maintenance issues they could be dealing with right now. We obviously don't want tired pilots or planes needing maintenance flying into a hurricane. We have satellite and radar.

I'd imagine the planes have taken quite a beating recently. Some maintenance procedures based on flight hours are required and can't be delayed.

[JBCycloneStan]

This is giving me Wilma tees with the extremely tiny eye and RI - hoping this fails to reach Cat 5 intensity though

[SouthDadeFish]

Also, it looks like the eye has been moving with a more northward component of motion over the past couple of hours. It could just be a wobble, but even a wobble would have big implications for which islands experience the worst of the storm.

[Gustywind]

ok i know i'm blind but it looks to me like she's feeling the tug north on those last cpl frames

Yes, looks like , the radar is assuming that with untrained eyes.. is that the weakness of the rigdge expected ?

The core is fairly small. The ridging seems to be holding. So this sudden jog to the wnw more is likely do to the inner core of the circulation interacting with the higher elevation of the islands. If so then in should swing back more wnw soon.

Interresting Aric, thanks for the clarification but this could have big implications for us in the Leewards. Looks like Maria is drifting NE of Martinica and not close to be more east of Dominica if this suspect jogs continue...

[RL3AO]

Also, it looks like the eye has been moving with a more northward component of motion over the past couple of hours. It could just be a wobble, but even a wobble would have big implications for which islands experience the worst of the storm.

Would agree. This looks like bad news for Dominica and could be bad news for Guadeloupe if it continues.

[WeatherGuesser]

5 day cone's already showing the Big Hook, so no Gulf for this one?

[Dave C]

This is not looking good, last minute rapid development and heading right for Dominica. I agree this may well be a cat 4 now.This will allow strongest winds to mix down.

[Gustywind]

Also, it looks like the eye has been moving with a more northward component of motion over the past couple of hours. It could just be a wobble, but even a wobble would have big implications for which islands experience the worst of the storm.

Absolutely ... you're right that's a big poop to the North! Looks like Maria is moving more NW than WNW during the last couple of hours... don't like that scenario of jog to the NO... as Guadeloupe is not so far too.

[Gustywind]

Also, it looks like the eye has been moving with a more northward component of motion over the past couple of hours. It could just be a wobble, but even a wobble would have big implications for which islands experience the worst of the storm.

Would agree. This looks like bad news for Dominica and could be bad news for Guadeloupe if it continues.

Agree. Not good news as this is to be likely a cat 4 at 5 PM or tonight, insane!

[tailgater]

The Northern wobble may be due to the heavier convention in the northern eyewall, also.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/909823821288439808